Bob Edlin: After ruling out new taxes, the Nats say voters’ choice is simple....

....but there’s support, too, for more spending on state services

Google threw the Facebook messaging of National MP Matt Doocey into considerations when PoO asked Google for a steer on political polls and public support for parties which have ruled out tax increases.

Doocey was crowing:

The choice this election is clear. No new taxes under National so Kiwis can get ahead or more taxes under Labour that will worsen Kiwis’ cost of living.

Clear choices?

Perhaps – but it would be a mistake to stake too much on that proposition.

On Sunday, Luxon and Willis confirmed National would not campaign on any new taxes this election, a U-turn on the party’s position just two weeks ago.

While outlining its fiscal rules on August 9, the pair had insisted no new taxes would be introduced for “working people”.

Yep, at that time the no new taxes policy had a bothersome caveat.

Non-working people had cause to be troubled.

But National leader Christopher Luxon more recently has promised “no new taxes” without the caveat and said it would be upheld in any coalition agreement.

He made the commitment while defending the scrapping of plans for taxes – or plans to consider new taxes – aimed at supporting tourism and ensuring banks were taxed fairly.

But that is bothersome, too.

What should voters make of a commitment not to introduce new taxes when it is comes from a fellow who not so long ago had made a commitment to local body leaders to look into a bed tax next year, after the general election?

Political commitment – all too despairingly – is a fragile thing.

But there’s more to Luxon’s cynical politicking. While on the one hand he has jettisoned a commitment to consider a bed tax, on the other he and finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis are repeating their claim that

… Labour is hiding more revenue-gathering policies as leader Chris Hipkins unveils his fiscal strategy, which features greater levels of government spending than National.

If something hasn’t been announced by Labour, or any political party, it is easy for a rival party to say it is being hidden.

It can be frustratingly hard for such claims to be effectively rebutted.

Luxon’s willingness to focus on tax policy and to change his mind about taxes he previously had been willing to consider no doubt was influenced by a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Issue Poll which showed National voters overwhelmingly want the party to draw a clear line in the sand on tax:

• 58 percent of voters want National to promise no new taxes or tax increases, compared to just 25 percent who oppose.
• 76 percent of National voters want them to make the same promise, with just 16 percent opposed.
• 65 percent of voters want income tax brackets indexed to inflation, and just 16 percent are opposed.
• 74 percent of National voters support indexation, with just 14 percent opposed. Voters of all parties support indexation.

Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams said the poll showed National voters wanted a simple promise: no new taxes and no tax hikes.

Three quarters of National voters support it, and majorities of Labour, ACT, New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori voters agreed, he noted.

“National can’t have it both ways. You can’t campaign against Labour’s tax hikes while leaving yourself a giant escape hatch for raising taxes on ‘someone else’. Every qualification makes voters wonder which tax is next.

“And ‘no new taxes on working people’ must include the inflation tax. Sixty-five percent of voters support indexing income tax brackets to inflation, including seventy-four percent of National voters. Bracket creep is a tax hike by stealth: when your pay only keeps up with inflation, you’re no richer, but the Government quietly takes a bigger slice anyway.

“The choice for National is brutally simple: cut the spending or keep reaching into taxpayers’ pockets. Voters have made it pretty clear which one they want.”

The Taxpayers’ Union therefore was the first to whoop about welcoming National’s U-turn and unequivocal commitment to “no new taxes”, calling it a victory for taxpayers and common sense.

Taxpayers’ Union Spokesperson Tory Relf said this week:

“Welcome home, National. This is exactly where the party of lower taxes should be.

“Just a few weeks ago, Nicola Willis was talking about ‘no new taxes on working people’ – a fudge that left the door wide open to new taxes on businesses, motorists, property owners and investors.

“Taxpayers didn’t buy it, and neither did we. We’ve been campaigning hard for National to drop the weasel words and restore the unequivocal commitment to no new taxes.

“Thousands of our supporters have been emailing National Party MPs and candidates this week to tell them to ditch the fudge and recommit to ‘no new taxes’.

“Today, Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have done exactly that. Credit where it’s due: they listened, changed course, and taxpayers are the winners.

This restored a clear dividing line this election, Relf insisted .

National and ACT had both ruled out new taxes, whereas

… Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and The Opportunity Party are lining up new ways to tax New Zealanders”

If only the choice was so uncomplicated.

Let’s consider the question which was put to respondents in the poll which seems to have galvanised the Nats to forget about previous pledges.

Do you want the National Party to promise no new taxes or tax increases if it is re-elected?

If there is any surprise, it’s that significant numbers of respondents did not declare their disinclination to be further taxed.

But there’s another side to the tax coin: in May last year, a poll commissioned by the Better Taxes for a Better Future campaign found most New Zealanders want increased spending on public services.

RNZ reported:

A new poll has found an overwhelming majority of New Zealanders across the political spectrum want increased spending on public services.

The poll carried out by Talbot Mills Research for the Better Taxes for a Better Future campaign surveyed 1252 adults around the country earlier this month.

More than three-quarters (83 percent) said government spending on key public services, such as hospitals, schools and the police, should increase a lot (48 percent) or a bit (35 percent). Eleven percent said it should stay the same, and three percent said it should decrease.

Support for the increase was widespread, regardless of which political party respondents supported, although it was lowest among Te Pāti Māori and ACT voters. Women and older respondents were more likely to prefer an increase.

Yep. This would further strain the Budget deficit and increase the public debt – unless the Government collected more revenue.

Respondents to the poll covered that point.

More than half (57 percent) thought wealthier New Zealanders (those with an income greater than $180,000 per year and/or $5 million of assets) should pay more tax, 27 percent thought they paid the right amount and 7 percent thought they should pay less.

Women, older respondents, and supporters of parties on the left were more likely to think wealthier people should pay more tax.

Glenn Barclay, spokesperson for the Better Taxes campaign, said the poll showed there was widespread support for greater investment in public services to meet the needs of New Zealanders, such as in healthcare, and education.

“New Zealanders don’t want to see cuts to essential public services, and the government needs to be looking at other ways to generate the revenue we need to provide services that will enable all New Zealanders to succeed,” he said.

Luxon and his colleagues no doubt would think they were on a winner if they were guided by the results of the Taxpayers’ Union poll.

But the Better Taxes poll findings suggest the choice for voters is not as simple as the more recent clamour for no new taxes would have the Nats believe.

Bob Edlin is a veteran journalist and editor for the Point of Order blog HERE.