In the famous words of another National Party leader, the current one will be “gone by lunchtime” so these words will be out of date before the clock strikes 12.
Mark down Wednesday August 12, 2026 as the day the National Party took one of the biggest gambles in its 90 year history.
That Christopher Luxon has to go is a no-brainer.
That Christopher Luxon has to go is a no-brainer.
He has been an exceptionally uninspiring leader since the beginning of his tenure, infected with corporate word salads and an absence of x-factor. The only question in recent times is whether or not he goes before or after the election.
That he’s survived this long through his various missteps is only due to there being no standout successor.
There still isn’t one now.
The prospect of Erica Stanford becoming Prime Minister is sickening. This is the woman who in her maiden speech said “it will be normal for my children to have their marriages defined by love and not by gender.”
At a lunch I attended where was the guest she was asked, as the then Opposition spokesperson on education, whether or not she would put a stop to the transgender promoters Inside Out having access to the country’s classrooms. She said she wouldn’t. And now as the Minister she hasn’t.
There is TV news coverage of her and her closest rival for the top job Chris Bishop in “costume” walking in the Pride Parade.
She has said publicly that iwi are a “treaty partner.” She describes Chloe Swarbrick as a “very good friend.”
Dear me.
Yes, she has done some good work in the education portfolio but her socially liberal and woke persona is a major turnoff to that numerically important group of voters, us old buggers.
Remember too she’s also presided over a shambolic immigration policy which has seen 111,000 work visas issued while the number of unemployed New Zealanders has skyrocketed to around 175,000.
The National Party left me when Simon Bridges was rolled as the party was polling 40 percent. Until Covid came along he was on track to lead them to victory in the 2020 election.
It’s been downhill ever since apart from the surge at 2023 election. I had faith in Judith Collins to put some backbone in the outfit but she called off the attack dogs early in the spring of 2020 and never recovered.
The old party of fiscally responsible centre-right voters and traditional family values has become a virtue signaling, free spending and timid political operation, less like a well-oiled machine and more like a battery operated Chinese toy.
If Stanford does succeed Luxon don’t expect any radical departure from the current path of timidity. The only difference is the new Prime Minister will be an attractive married woman in her late 40s who exudes considerably more televisual appeal than her predecessor.
She won’t be addressing matters of race relations and the ever expanding co-governance regimes emerging around the country, and she’s unlikely to make any significant moves to reduce the quantum of government spending and the Public Service.
She started in politics as the electorate agent for that master of political dark arts Murray McCully. She calls him her political mentor. That’s why she hasn’t said a word about wanting the top job and remaining utterly schtum when accosted on her arrival back in Wellington the night before the vote.
She may give the Nats a sugar hit for a few weeks before the election. But she’ll have to defy history to continue as PM after November 7. No Prime Minister installed into the job during a parliamentary term has ever won the subsequent election during my three score years and twelve.
Keith Holyoake in 1957, Jack Marshall in 1972, Mike Moore in 1990, Jenny Shipley in 1999 and Bill English in 2017 were all unable to form government after the subsequent election.
That’s why if Erica Stanford does get the job it’s no guarantee of a polling surge for the Nats.
The other option appears to be Chris Bishop, a man I like for his work ethic and the direction of travel he wants to take New Zealand’s planning and resource management regime. He loves cricket too – in my mind a huge plus although for most, sadly, completely irrelevant.
But sadly I don’t think he has the wide electoral appeal of Mrs Stanford and in this age the concept of women in charge still appeals to large sectors of the electorate. If she wins on Wednesday, it would be like the year 2000 all over again with the country having a woman Prime Minister, Governor-General and Chief Justice.
The removal of Luxon ends one problem for the National Party and the government. I’m yet to be convinced Erica Stanford is the solution.
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack where this article was sourced.
That he’s survived this long through his various missteps is only due to there being no standout successor.
There still isn’t one now.
The prospect of Erica Stanford becoming Prime Minister is sickening. This is the woman who in her maiden speech said “it will be normal for my children to have their marriages defined by love and not by gender.”
At a lunch I attended where was the guest she was asked, as the then Opposition spokesperson on education, whether or not she would put a stop to the transgender promoters Inside Out having access to the country’s classrooms. She said she wouldn’t. And now as the Minister she hasn’t.
There is TV news coverage of her and her closest rival for the top job Chris Bishop in “costume” walking in the Pride Parade.
She has said publicly that iwi are a “treaty partner.” She describes Chloe Swarbrick as a “very good friend.”
Dear me.
Yes, she has done some good work in the education portfolio but her socially liberal and woke persona is a major turnoff to that numerically important group of voters, us old buggers.
Remember too she’s also presided over a shambolic immigration policy which has seen 111,000 work visas issued while the number of unemployed New Zealanders has skyrocketed to around 175,000.
The National Party left me when Simon Bridges was rolled as the party was polling 40 percent. Until Covid came along he was on track to lead them to victory in the 2020 election.
It’s been downhill ever since apart from the surge at 2023 election. I had faith in Judith Collins to put some backbone in the outfit but she called off the attack dogs early in the spring of 2020 and never recovered.
The old party of fiscally responsible centre-right voters and traditional family values has become a virtue signaling, free spending and timid political operation, less like a well-oiled machine and more like a battery operated Chinese toy.
If Stanford does succeed Luxon don’t expect any radical departure from the current path of timidity. The only difference is the new Prime Minister will be an attractive married woman in her late 40s who exudes considerably more televisual appeal than her predecessor.
She won’t be addressing matters of race relations and the ever expanding co-governance regimes emerging around the country, and she’s unlikely to make any significant moves to reduce the quantum of government spending and the Public Service.
She started in politics as the electorate agent for that master of political dark arts Murray McCully. She calls him her political mentor. That’s why she hasn’t said a word about wanting the top job and remaining utterly schtum when accosted on her arrival back in Wellington the night before the vote.
She may give the Nats a sugar hit for a few weeks before the election. But she’ll have to defy history to continue as PM after November 7. No Prime Minister installed into the job during a parliamentary term has ever won the subsequent election during my three score years and twelve.
Keith Holyoake in 1957, Jack Marshall in 1972, Mike Moore in 1990, Jenny Shipley in 1999 and Bill English in 2017 were all unable to form government after the subsequent election.
That’s why if Erica Stanford does get the job it’s no guarantee of a polling surge for the Nats.
The other option appears to be Chris Bishop, a man I like for his work ethic and the direction of travel he wants to take New Zealand’s planning and resource management regime. He loves cricket too – in my mind a huge plus although for most, sadly, completely irrelevant.
But sadly I don’t think he has the wide electoral appeal of Mrs Stanford and in this age the concept of women in charge still appeals to large sectors of the electorate. If she wins on Wednesday, it would be like the year 2000 all over again with the country having a woman Prime Minister, Governor-General and Chief Justice.
The removal of Luxon ends one problem for the National Party and the government. I’m yet to be convinced Erica Stanford is the solution.
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack where this article was sourced.
11 comments:
Agreed on Stanford, she is totally woke and she herself said she used to text Swarbrick during parliament Question Time. She won't win over Conservative voters. Luxon should never have got the leadership role in the first place. Chris Bishop could be okay but also of the same mold as the other two. They probably need a fresh, new direction which won't happen in a couple of months.
Both Erica and Luxon are woke she will get a slew of women voting for her. Women only vote for people who are a bit attractive.
Think Dutton and Luxon men vote for who they see projecting their position.
In aggregate more will vote right of center with Erica
The only real option is the current health minister Simeon Brown, but whether he wants the job is another thing.
Either leaders of the two smaller coalition parties ACT and NZF would be excellent leaders for New Zealand . Both have proven political brains and ability .
I think many of you are being too harsh on Erica Stanford.
I detest the fraud swarbrick, and can't fathom how stanford would wan't to share anything with her.
As for other matters, stanford's public climate and maori stance concerns me greatly, but she has to follow the boss's riding instructions methinks.
Erica Stanford is smart, experienced and projects well.
National and labour have been scrapping like a couple of dumb blackbirds in the middle of SH1 for far too long.
There's a bloody big Kenworth truck thundering toward them, and if they don't change their position, they will both be flattened, looking skyward with twitching legs, and wondereing what the f happened in their dying breath.
And the minahs will survive.
Simeon Brown for 2i/c at this stage - gutsy, smart, and he's handled tough assignments well.
He will get support, because he is, literally, the little guy (as opoosed to being sinply short).
Ameni, and roll on today, so to speak.
Luxon is a great chief of staff, he's a very uninspiring leader.
National need to get a grip and be bold on the economy and maroification
Bring back Bill.
One of the best ever, who couldn't get a run.
Ameni
If Nats choose anyone not midly woke they will lose the waffle votes to Labour, more than they take back off NZF and Act.
Several elections back I heard a speech by new incoming Chris Penk [ex submarine crew, Naval rank, law degree etc] and thought "He is PM material".... Go for it boy!!
With respect Peter (I'm at least 10yrs your senior), I don't think history of these matters is necessarily as relevant in the days of social media.
It astounds me how powerful it can be.
Ask yourself - who can females (young or old) vote for in this now, popularity contest farcical environment?
Swarbrick has zero to offer NZ, in my view, except an exceptional ability to talk underwater.
So, who is left, for the perhaps less discerning female voter?
Stanford is a no brainer (she is not), in my view, for leadership, for precisely that reason at this time. Ardern's rise should have been a lesson that the current party leadership should have been very conscious of.
I think it's too late to change leaders right now - should have been done last year, but if it is to happen, Stanford would seal this years election for them.
I'd suggest, even survival of yet another party that has totally lost sight of it's roots imho.
We live in interesting times - at least for today.
Ameni
To anon 9.33 - so Penk would be the 2nd in the house who has a proven track record of talking underwater!
Ameni
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