Support for National dropped 1% to 31%
Support for ACT was up 2% to 10.5%
Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 7.5%
Support for Labour was down 1.5% to 24%
Support for Labour was down 1.5% to 24%
Support for the Greens was up 2% to 15.5%
Support for Te Pāti Māori decreased 0.5% to 1.5%.
A further 10% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this includes 9.5% (up 1.5%) who support Opportunity and a further 0.5% (down 1.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set to win most seats but fall short of a majority with 59 seats
A further 10% (unchanged) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. Importantly, this includes 9.5% (up 1.5%) who support Opportunity and a further 0.5% (down 1.5%) who support other minor parties including the NewZeal, NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP), Vision NZ, Conservative Party NZ, Women’s Right’s Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National-led Government set to win most seats but fall short of a majority with 59 seats
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 858 electors from July 27 – August 23, 2026. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 3.5% points) did not name a party.
The survey results for August would lead to the National-led Government winning 59 seats (down nine seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 51 seats (down four seats)....full poll results published HERE
The survey results for August would lead to the National-led Government winning 59 seats (down nine seats from the election) and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition would win 51 seats (down four seats)....full poll results published HERE
Roy Morgan is Australia’s best known and longest established market research company, with an unparalleled reputation for reliable, accurate, meaningful, revealing market research. Proudly independent, the Company now operates globally.
8 comments:
Misleading. Add TOP and the opposition are in power.
And when you add special votes from abroad the ''left'' bloc goes up by a seat or two.
Why on earth is this chap listing the NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party (NZOFP)? We’d be better off bringing back McGillicuddy Serious. At least they had some self awareness!
My students are nearly all voting TOP. Why? The two Chris's are unbearable. One locked down Auckland forever, broke the NZ economy and misled us about the vaccine = whereas the other Chris got into bed with the oligarchs, giving the big banks, big food and big construction everything they wanted. NZ is failing and in the midst of a revolt but many folks haven't got it yet. It comes from not being able to afford the bills thanks to Chris 1 and Chris 2.
Latests polls are indicating Labour's support has collapsed and not a word from the media.
This is a very poor summary of the results. Unless Labour refuses to work with TOP (unlikely) there's little chance the coalition can win on these numbers.
Robert: “am I out of touch? No, it must be the kids. All of them. All of the kids are out of touch.”
Unless TOP is just a flash in the pan (and I'm beginning to doubt that now), I agree with the commentators who predict a left bloc victory, based on these numbers. The youth are going to vote Green and TOP because they haven't yet graduated from the University of Real Life. The Swing voters are going to vote TOP because Qiulae seems so nice. The only factor that may sway the result the other way, is the factor that none may dare to mention in public - the widespread, deep-seated resentment of Maori favouratism.
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