Peter Dunne: The Polls Trendline

This week’s Taxpayers Union/Curia poll attracted far more attention than a single poll should. This was principally because it recorded support for Labour now being below what it was at the time of its defeat at the last election. However, at their best, polls are but a snapshot in time, with the long-term trends they disclose being far more significant than the individual result. So, it would be unwise to treat this Taxpayers Union/Curia poll, or any other single poll for that matter, in isolation from the wider context.

Peter Dunne: Hipkin's dilemma

Has Te Pāti Māori just ruled itself out of government, or will Labour’s Chris Hipkins cave in, in the pursuit of power?

Te Pāti Māori's "bottom line" policies of subordinating the sovereignty of Parliament to the Treaty of Waitangi and a separate Treaty of Waitangi Commission, together with a contestable $200 million fund to promote Māori sovereignty issues raise that question. If ever implemented these changes would be the country’s most profound constitutional changes since the establishment of Parliamentary government in 1852.

Peter Dunne: Kingmakers

In the wake of the rise of the Opportunity Party in recent opinion polls there has been much commentary about the role of smaller parties as kingmakers when it comes to forming governments under MMP. Most of it has been overstated.

Peter Dunne: National Party leadership coup

This week's attempted National Party leadership coup quickly descended into disorganised farce. The immediate casualty was not Christopher Luxon as his Caucus detractors may have hoped, but Chris Penk. Despite his repeated denials and public pledges of loyalty to Luxon, he was widely reported to be the stalking horse for at least one of those wanting to depose the Prime Minister. However, he ended up not only failing to achieve that goal but destroying his own promising political career in the process.

Peter Dunne: Wellington City Council - Public Relations Disasters

You can’t beat Wellington on a good day” the saying goes.

It also seems you cannot beat Wellington, or at least its City Council, when it comes to public relations disasters.

Earlier this year, following years of mismanagement of and underinvestment in the city’s water system, the Council in conjunction with other local Councils, established a new entity, Tiaki Wai, to better and more transparently manage the region’s water resources. Part of the plan was that there would be a separation between what ratepayers paid for water services and their rates to local authorities, so that they could see more clearly the true cost of water services.

Peter Dunne: Opportunity Party Poaching National Voters

Christopher Luxon's ruling out any possibility of National working with the Opportunity Party after the election is not nearly as emphatic as it sounds.

This time three years ago Luxon was saying his party's strong preference was not to have to work with New Zealand First after the 2023 election, only to end up going into coalition together a couple of months later. In a similar vein, ACT's David Seymour originally specifically ruled out ever sitting around the Cabinet table with New Zealand First Ministers, only to join the post-election coalition because of the perceived greater good of keeping Labour out of office.

Peter Dunne: The Kiwi Political Paradox

New Zealanders have an often-contradictory view about what they expect in their politicians.

At one level, they are frequently dismissive of those they regard as "career" politicians with no real life-experience. They barely tolerate the way they do things because they are just the "games politicians play." They deride all politicians for their perceived caution and tendency to see most situations through their own particular political prisms.

Peter Dunne: New Zealand’s foreign policy

The rock and the hard place that has defined New Zealand’s foreign policy for the last decade or so is getting ever sharper and more uncomfortable.

Since the thaw in relations with the United States after the 1980s nuclear row, New Zealand has been a reluctant friend. Consistent with what it holds to be an independent foreign policy, New Zealand has supported the United States on some issues and opposed it on others. For example, it provided significant military and operational support to the United States-led Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in the early 2000s but opposed the invasion of Iraq in 2003 because it had not had the approval of the United Nations.

Peter Dunne: The Opportunity Party

Since 1996 no new party has entered Parliament without either a sitting or former MP leading it. The Conservative Party in 2014 came close to doing so, scoring about 4% of the party vote, but ultimately failed and never attained that level of support again.

With some opinion polls currently suggesting the Opportunity Party is inching closer to the cusp of the 5% threshold that sobering reality remains a daunting challenge. As with the Conservative Party and other small parties before them, potential voters will have to be persuaded that the Opportunity Party can make a difference, and that therefore a vote for it would not be wasted.

Peter Dunne: Yes Minister

Our system of government has been built on the partnership between Ministers and their public service officials to implement the government’s policies. Inevitably, that requires a high level of mutual confidence and trust.

The system further assumes that officials, whatever their personal political allegiances, will work impartially with Ministers to achieve those goals. Ministers have the right to expect the professional loyalty and genuine effort of their officials, and officials should expect to receive the support of their Ministers in return.

Peter Dunne: Labour's party list

Labour’s recently released party list is a job half-done.

A positive aspect is that it has introduced a small pool of new talent that would be beneficial to Labour’s ranks. However, it has also not only retained, but in some cases, promoted too many of the old guard that contributed so much to Labour’s failure when last in office. While the list ranking process has culled out some of Labour’s deadwood, it has not gone nearly far enough to suggest a future Labour-led government would look significantly different from the one that was so decisively defeated at the last election.

Peter Dunne: Post Budget

Parliament rose late last Saturday evening after a marathon period of Urgency passing legislation relating to last week's Budget and other matters. This was not unusual – Parliament usually goes into Urgency for a couple of days after a Budget.

Peter Dunne: Budget strategies

With her latest Budget Finance Minister Nicola Willis has joined some very unlikely company.

In 1972 then Finance Minister Rob Muldoon crowed that “I’ve spent it all for them”, meaning that there was no room for rash spending promises from Labour before that year’s election. In a somewhat more genteel fashion, former Finance Minister Grant Robertson deliberately set constrained forward spending allowances and booked $4 billion in savings and reprioritisation in the 2023 Budget. His intention was to leave the National Party with extremely limited fiscal room to fund its election promises without having to either cut public services or rely on highly optimistic economic revenue forecasts.

Peter Dunne: Labour's Policy Vacuum

It is often said that Oppositions never win elections because governments lose them. In other words, if a government is unpopular enough it will lose an election, regardless of the calibre of the Opposition.

That was certainly the case in 2023 when Labour was tossed out of office. The public mood then was far more that people had had enough of Labour and were keen to get rid of it, rather than a positive feeling for National. And as National's support has waned in recent months, and Labour's increased, it was beginning to look as though history might be set to repeat itself at this November's election. However, that may be about to change.

Peter Dunne: Labour and Greens need Te Pati Maori

Rawiri Waititi is absolutely correct when he says there will be no one-term government without Te Pati Māori. At no point since the last election have Labour and the Green Party been polling strongly enough to contemplate forming a government without the inclusion of Te Pati Māori. And even if Te Pati Māori were to be involved, there have only been three occasions, according to the polls, since the last election when the left bloc would have had the numbers to form a government, were there to have been an election.

Peter Dunne: Singapore's “food for fuel” deal

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon describes the "food for fuel" deal he has just concluded with Singapore as "world leading". While that language may sound unnecessarily Trumpist, the arrangement is certainly a positive one to be celebrated.

Peter Dunne: Winston Peters' savvy

Labour's decision to support the free trade agreement with India should have surprised nobody. It was always going to be the outcome, with the outstanding question being just when Labour would announce its support for the deal. As this column noted in early February, from the outset Labour has been effectively over a barrel on the issue.

Peter Dunne: The issue of Prime Ministerial incapacity

Donald Trump's erratic behaviour has led to increasing speculation that United States legislators may invoke the 25th Amendment to the United States’ Constitution to remove him from office. Respected media outlets like the New York Times have been openly raising questions about the President's sanity and therefore his capability to remain in office.

Peter Dunne: No-frills leadership

Christopher Luxon's mentor Sir John Key quickly and successfully transitioned from international businessman to national political leader when he became Prime Minister. Luxon, on the other hand, is still struggling to do so. And nor is it clear that he even wants to.

Key's smooth transition occurred because he was both driven, and a sponge for new knowledge. He knew what he wanted to achieve, and was always eager to learn the best political ways of doing so.

Peter Dunne: Chris Hipkins' State Of The Nation Speech

There has been much criticism that Labour leader Chris Hipkins' so-called state of the nation speech to Auckland business leaders this week was a missed opportunity. According to these critics, Hipkins should have used the occasion to spell out some major policy details to kick-start his party's election campaign.