Dr Eric Crampton: Fingers crossed

If the country sees a few lucky breaks, Budget 2026 shows a return to surplus in 2029.

The period of structural deficits will have lasted almost a decade.

Without those lucky breaks, including at the Strait of Hormuz, deficits will extend for longer. And it beggars belief that a decade of structural deficits is consistent with the fiscal responsibility provisions of the Public Finance Act.