JD: Death Knell

Guest post on The Good Oil by JD

The latest unemployment and inflation figures sound the death knell for National’s coalition and for the country.

New Zealand’s electoral history suggests governments are most vulnerable when inflation and unemployment rise together. Inflation cuts real household incomes every week, while unemployment creates fear that today’s pressure may become tomorrow’s job loss.

David Farrar: $500k just to create a 30 second ad

The Taxpayers’ Union released:

Health New Zealand spent $490,043.75 on a single advert featuring former Lotto presenter Russell Harrison, documents obtained by the Taxpayers’ Union reveal for the first time.

Harrison, who remained suspended from the Ministry of Justice on full pay for years, was paid $3,000 to appear in the 30-second advertisement.

Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman Tyler Groenewald said:

David Farrar: Money for kids doesn’t promote fertility

The Herald reports:

It comes as Peters unveils new election policy proposing to create a “Kiwi Kids Grant” for parents, one of whom must be a New Zealand citizen, for their first three children.

The grant would be worth $5000 per child for each of their first three years, meaning families could receive up to $45,000 in total. …

Tuesday August 11, 2026 

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Ryan Bridge: Luxon's leadership is in question, yet again

Here we go again.

For the second time this year, there's a story in the media about National MPs doing the numbers on Luxon.

At least one of them is talking to Thomas Coughlan at the Herald.

Ryan Bridge: Tony Randle is the sort of brain needed around the council table

Tony Randle was the exactly the type of person, the sort of brain, you want sitting round a council table.

Especially given the types who now seem to occupy many of the seats.

It's very sad to hear of his passing. My condolences to his family and those who knew him well.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: You'd have to be naïve or foolish to believe National's promise this time around

How weird was National's re-announcement of its Budget Responsibility Rules? It was very weird. Essentially, National made exactly the same announcement that it made three years ago before the 2023 election.

First, it would strive for a surplus. Second, it would reduce debt. Third, it would cut Government spending.

Ani O'Brien: National's list and the quirks of MMP

National needs more votes, not a new electoral system

There are few surprises to be found in National’s list rankings for the election. Christopher Luxon is first, obviously. Then Nicola Willis, then Chris Bishop retains 3rd despite months of leadership gossip, and Simeon Brown and Erica Stanford round out the top 5. Paul Goldsmith follows at 6 and Gerry Brownlee has been hauled up from 14th at the last election to 9th. Nancy Lu is perhaps the most interesting promotion at 16th. And Melissa Lee, meanwhile, has fallen to 30th, which is a message to pack a lunch and start doorknocking.

Pee Kay, Why Every New Zealander Should Fear a Ngai Tahu Victory

The Trial that could re-shape New Zealand’s future and why the Ngai Tahu case threatens NZ democracy!

There will be many people around New Zealand awaiting a hugely significant High Court judgment in the Tau v Attorney-General action, expected before the November 7th election. This case has the potential to spark significant political anxiety, conflict and certain Maori action regarding freshwater rights.

The case concerns Te Maire Tau’s argument that Ngai Tahu never ceded authority over freshwater and they are seeking a co-governance regime rather than mere compensation. I have no doubt they are actually mean “co-governance… for now!”

Mike's Minute: The Legacy of Newstalk ZB

I hope if you read it or caught it over the weekend you enjoyed the coverage of Newstalk ZB's 100th birthday.

I can tell you for nothing it is an honour and a joy to be a small part of what has become this country's greatest radio success story.

Peter Williams: Political Opinion

If you wanted a display on who is the country’s most composed and unflappable politician, look no further than the reaction to Christopher Luxon’s rather bizarre pronouncement that if returned as Prime Minister after the election he’d hold a referendum on our MMP electoral system.

The whole situation appears completely unplanned. He was on a radio talkback show and commenting on a listener text. It was all very vague. He was “open” to asking voters if they were still supportive of MMP and then pressed further about holding a referendum, he said “yeah, I think I would.”

Can you believe he said that?

Ashley Church: The growing threat from the far-right?

Are we looking in the wrong direction?

If you follow mainstream media commentary in 2026 you could easily come away with the impression that the greatest threat to democracy is presented by the ‘far-right’. The language varies, but the message is remarkably consistent: Political violence comes from the far right. Extremism comes from the far right. Governments should be doing more to curb the spread of far right ideas.

Simon O'Connor: Foreign interference is very real in New Zealand

I recently gave a speech to MPs, academics, journalists, and the general public on foreign interference in New Zealand, sharing some real and personal stories of mine.

This is not my regular Substack. It is a copy of a speech I recently gave to those attending a symposium on foreign interfernce, hosted by the Tasman Alliance and co-sponsored by the Free Speech Union and New Zealand Values Alliance. It was a gathering of academics, Members of Parliament, journalists, ambassadors, influencers, and the general public.

Free to believe

David Farrar: Chambers on Kim Dotcom

Deborah Chambers QC reviews the Dotcom extradition saga:

The Kim Dotcom saga should be a source of deep shame to New Zealanders. To successive governments who failed to fix the legislation. To our courts. And to every New Zealander who believes this country can run a competent extradition system.

Fourteen years. That is how long it has taken – and counting – to get a man arrested in a high-profile raid in January 2012 to the point where he might finally be put on a plane to face the music in the United States.

David Farrar: ACT’s school discipline policy

ACT have released a policy on discipline at school. It is mainly good, but potentially problematic.

ACT will give classroom teachers an explicit legal power to direct a student to leave the room for serious or persistent disruption, backed in law, very much like the operation of the school cell phone ban.

Monday August 10, 2026 

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Peter Williams: Why are we waiting?

The Ngai Tahu water case is clogged in a judge's chambers

There are no official records for New Zealand’s longest delay between a court hearing and the judgement.

High Court guidelines say judges expect 90 percent of reserved decisions to be delivered within three months of the last day of the hearing. The Chief High Court Judge regards a reserved judgement as being “outstanding beyond a reasonable time” once six months have elapsed.

So where does that leave Justice Melanie Harland and her decision on the Ngai Tahu Freshwater Statement of Claim hearing which finished on April 4th last year?

Damien Grant: One blunt speech, one apology, and a Prime Minister losing control

There is, the Prime Minister observed, a “parent-child mentality” when it comes to businesses relationship with government. “ I have literally sat in boardrooms across New Zealand, and the conversation goes: 'I wonder what the government's going to do? I wonder what the government's going to think?'. Who cares what the government thinks or does? Our job is to be adult, adult, adult.”

The Prime Minister was right although I’m not sure it was wise to say it out loud.

Lindsay Mitchell: What the Left constantly ignores

Here is the political argument from the Left:

Poverty causes hardship for children. Whether the parent is working or on a benefit makes no difference. It's the lack of income that matters.

My argument is that the source of income matters. A lot.

Children in households with the same low income suffer hardship disproportionately if their parent is on a benefit.

Mike's Minute: Some political operators want to undermine your future

Perhaps the Labour Party's small target election year strategy has started to unravel as one of their MPs, Helen White, told us all of her desire for house prices to fall.

She wants them to come down.