Pee Kay: Two Boring Chris’s; which one will call Qiulae?

“Two Boring Chris’s,” was my wife’s opinion and “…may the dullest Chris win” was the headline in the Herald a day or so before polling day.

Let’s be honest; was either Chris Luxon or Chris Hipkins ever capable of inspiring a single shred of genuine passion, let alone shifting political allegiances and forcing a radical change of vote? Hell no.

Ashley Church: A huge wake-up call for National

If you’re confused about what happened on election night, you’re probably not alone. After weeks of being told that this was going to be one of the closest elections in New Zealand’s history, we’ve ended up with a result that appears to leave the country in political limbo. Nobody has claimed victory, the special votes haven’t been counted, and there’s still talk of the possibility of a Labour-led government.

Richard Prebble: A landslide

Under First Past the Post, National would have won a landslide victory on Saturday’s electorate results.

National won 42 of the 71 electorates. All the other parties combined won just 29.

National would have had a majority of 13 seats over all the other parties combined and could have governed alone.

JC: A Win Is a Win

That’s about all that can be said for a near disastrous night for the right. Even then it’s ‘more likely’ than certain. If those on the right had taken National and Key’s advice to party vote National, the election would have been lost. We would have awakened on Sunday morning to a four-headed monster on the left and with no way back. Instead, and with good reason, voters on the right basically told them to sod off and went and did the right thing and split their vote. These are the people who deserve thanks for, hopefully, returning the coalition to power.

David Farrar: The breakdown of the 55th Parliament of New Zealand

There are provisionally 131 MPs, a record high, in the 55th Parliament of New Zealand. There are 71 electorate MPs and 60 list MPs.

On Patreon, I have done a detailed analysis of the breakdown of not just Parliament as a whole, but for each party. This answers questions like:

David Farrar: Two overhangs, but for different reasons

Te Pāti Māori announced in August that they did not want party votes. They explicitly said they want to create overhang. Their MPs did not even party vote for TPM. And their strategy worked.

In 2023 they got 3.1%. In 2026 they got 0.6%. That is an 80% reduction in their party vote, or a 2.5 percentage point drop. In July they were polling around 3% in the polls.

Rodney Hide: Glorious

I should not pick on Stuff’s political editor Henry Cooke, but then he’s so target-rich. One day I hope to report that he has something right.

(You may recall I earlier drew attention to his plan that Labour and National should ask the Governor-General to call another election should the government rely on an overhang. He appears to have dropped that idea.)

Mike's Minute: The winners and losers from election night

Obviously we will work through the machinations later but lets just run through the winners and losers of the night.

The winners:

 Monday November 9, 2026 

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Ryan Bridge: Luxon will need to pick up the phone to Opportunity

As predicted last week the strategy Luxon loathes is what got him back to power.

Thank you overhang.

His strategy of ruling Opportunity out didn't keep them out.

Damien Grant: We think we vote for radically different futures....

.....History proves we don’t

If your team won yesterday you may be feeling a twinge of joy. If not, perhaps you are feeling a sense of disappointment. Either way, let me bring you back to an equilibrium.

Elections, with a very few consequential exceptions, do not matter.

Breaking Views Update: Week of 8.11.26

Monday November 9, 2026 

News:
Auckland Council doubles down on diversity dollar
Auckland Council wants to double the proportion of its suppliers that are Māori and Pasifika-owned, as it looks to direct more of the region’s spending towards businesses helping drive the city’s economic future.

The council said it currently sources 5% of its goods and services from Māori and Pasifika suppliers and had set a target of 10% by 2034.

Colinxy: The Coalition Looks Set to Survive Another Election

Barring an unexpected twist from the special votes, the Coalition appears set to continue governing after yesterday’s election. While commentators are already searching for scenarios that might upend the result, the arithmetic currently favours continuing the existing arrangement.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Government can’t keep borrowing to prop up New Zealand households

Almost 180,000 more New Zealand citizens have left the country than have returned in the past four years. Most have gone to Australia.

Higher incomes in Australia are likely a factor. Australians earn about 30 percent more per person than New Zealanders. That gap is worth roughly $20,000 a year for every New Zealander, or about $105 billion in total.

Many New Zealanders will not be aware of the extent of the shortfall because heavy government borrowing has been bolstering household incomes unsustainably.

Nick Clark: The rates cap that can put rates up

Just before Parliament was dissolved for the election, the Government introduced the Local Government (Rates Capping) Amendment Bill. There was just enough time to call for submissions before MPs headed off on campaign.

Under the legislation, councils would not be able to increase their rates by more than a set percentage (four percent as drafted in the Bill) without central Government permission. That much is clear from the Bill's name.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson: Why New Zealanders earn less, and what can be done about it

Higher incomes in Australia draw New Zealanders across the Tasman. Many of those who remain here struggle with a high cost of living relative to their income.

The income gap with Australia is large. In 2024, Australians earned about 30 percent more income per person than New Zealanders, according to an OECD measure. That gap comes to $20,000 per person.

Bruce Cotterill: Netball NZ leaders are failing the sport off court

Netball New Zealand’s new administrative line-up needed, to borrow a basketball term, a “slam dunk” as they dealt with the first few months under the new regime. With a few wins under their belt, they would have created the opportunity to start rebuilding trust after the debacle of the last 18 months.

But they’ve missed the chance. They’re looking shambolic all over again. And they’ve made things worse, not better.

Bob Edlin: It’s a name known to the hundreds of people who attended her funeral.....

....but the police don’t want you to know it

Stuff reports some bemusing law-and-order thinking in an article headed –

She died violently in her home. Why police don’t want you to know her name

Police have moved to block Stuff from revealing the name of a highly respected mother and grandmother who was the victim of a homicide in the small Bay of Plenty community of Kawerau.

David Farrar: Would they do this to a Chinese DJ?

The Free Speech Union released:

Twisted Frequency, a New Year music festival in Golden Bay, has cancelled Israeli DJ Dekel because he has not spoken out against Israel.

The festival says it was told Dekel had been a commander in the Israeli Defence Force and had performed in Israel in recent years. When it heard this, it contacted his management to cancel the booking.

 Sunday November 8, 2026 

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