Alwyn Poole: I Know the post is long but PISA is a big deal.

Hello KBers … if it is too long don’t read it … but the outcomes of our education system are important.

What NZ’s 2025 PISA Results Tell Us

Alwyn Poole — with analytical/formatting support from AI

General Analysis

My take on implications

Alwyn Poole: Dear “Chippy” - Why only 15% of voters want you as PM

(Not that the media even seem to but notice that aspect of the polls).

I have lived and worked in Auckland, primarily in Education, from 1998 until now (with a 6 year gap when I was in the BoI, which co-incided with your covid response).

I will try and keep this reponse to points.

Alwyn Poole: This is HUGE re the outcomes of our Education system.

Myself, and others, e.g. Duncan Garner, Derek Cheng, etc – have recently highlighted that 15% of students leave of education system – after at least 13,200 funded hours – with no formal qualification.

For 2025 LEAVERS that would be 10,496 young people.

Despite what people to the esteemed level of the current Minister of Education stating – NCEA is easy to understand and clearly defined.

Alwyn Poole: Another small, but positive, Education shift.

The latest IPSOS poll is anything but good reading for National with Labour favoured to better manage 9 of the top 11 issues – including Education. The respondents are wrong on Education as there is incremental progress at present. Much more should be being done in a range of ways but it is not the same level of disaster created by Hipkins and Tinetti.

Each year I do a data process that includes every high school in NZ across a range of measures based on their leavers data. I am about to get the raw data to do that work. Some full system data is now available and I am really happy to say that there have been improvements.

Alwyn Poole: Two Good Indicators and Two VERY bad indicators for NZ Children and Young People

The Good

1. There has been a positive and statistically significant improvement in full school attendance for Term 2 2026 compared to the previous 10 years.

2. I was asked about Erica Standford’s engagement with schools. I therefore took the time to go through her Minister of Education diary for the last three years. I found that she has directly visited approximately 60 schools. Given that she is also Minister of Immigration I would think that this is a very good level of engagement. A case can be made that there is a low level of visits to highly challenged schools but the diary contains no information about where she has actually been invited to.

Alwyn Poole: Another look at the provision of school lunches.

It is clear – from school feedback and an Auditor General’s report that the current school lunch programme is beset with issues.

Societally it is controversial as our history in this area has been parents providing the lunch box. On a Friday, when I was at primary school, you could order fish’n’chips and you could get plate sized potato fritters for 5 cents (still addicted). I was completely fired up when I returned home one day, as a boy called Ronald had beaten me up and stolen my lunch. I was around 8 years old. I wanted him sent to prison for life (or worse). My mother’s response was to make two lunches the next day.

Alwyn Poole: On School Lunches – A Response to Jonathan Ayling

(My response to his words in point-form).

“More than lunches, children need parents – Jonathan Ayling”

– Clearly a truism.

“While there has been much talk about the quality and cost of school lunches, the debate misses a larger point, argues Jonathan Ayling – why is the Government in the business of feeding our children at all?”

Alwyn Poole: Re pre-school.....

Again – some recognition and help re pre-school but the Minister still misses the key point.

This week Erica Stanford made an announcement to expand a programme to enhance oral language skills in pre-school children. For those it will reach, it appears positive.

The issue is the “those it will reach” part.

From the article:

Alwyn Poole: Gap grows in maths, writing.....

From NZH: “Gap grows in maths, writing: More than 90% of poor children fall behind by Year 3”

Derek Cheng writes:

“Almost all socio-economically disadvantaged children fell behind in maths last year by Year 3, with 95% below curriculum level and 70% more than a year behind.

Alwyn Poole: Austerity? The Public Service Size Increased Again

In the March Quarter the Public Service workforce grew from 63,657 FTEs to 64,535. A quarterly increase of 1.4% and 12 month increase of 2.1%.

Ironically the Ministry for Regulation FTEs grew 11.6%.

Alwyn Poole: Education … everyone knows change is needed but …

… there are so many signals that the current government is going about most things education related in the wrong way.

1. It is highly predictable that the teacher unions and most of the teaching sector will oppose most changes proposed by a center right government. However the Minister has neither reduced their power – or engaged well if she is not willing to do that.

2. The curriculum changes have been driven by a very narrow group of people with very slim engagement, understanding of our system, and endorsement from the wide sector. The qualifications and experience of the education sector has been significantly ignored by a “do what you are told to do” attitude from the Minister.

Alwyn Poole: Vocational Education in Schools needs to be thought through VERY carefully.....

Two Reasons the planned increase in Vocational Education in Schools needs to be thought through VERY carefully.

1. Early categorization of students and direction into narrow pathways creates carnage.

When at teachers’ college in the 1990s I came across a text with a photo of a Maori man doing road work and the caption: “Where would we be for roads in New Zealand without the Maori worker?”

Alwyn Poole: The World’s Most Educated Countries

Versions of below have been in media around the world in the last two weeks.

“In its 2026 assessment, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development highlighted the world’s most educated countries, pointing to strong higher education access and sustained investment in learning.

Alwyn Poole: Just How Bad NZ’s Productivity is!

Last week I posted on how problematic the size of NZ government is.

Duncan Garner picked up on it here – and also interviewed David Seymour on it. Seymour seemed unusually tepid on bringing about smaller government – even going with the “at least we are not Labour” type statement.

I mentioned that the Public Sector is “crowding-out” the Private Sector and making genuine economic growth extremenely difficult. Treasury notes this:

Alwyn Poole: How endemic is this type of spending in government Ministries?

A few years back two schools I was involved in managing took the Ministry of Education to formal mediation on six non-performance issues on their part.

While all of the outcomes remain confidential I can comment on one of the processes for their response.

Alwyn Poole: The HUGELY problematic size of Government in NZ.

Until a Government has the courage/determination to shrink the size of ITSELF – New Zealand has NO CHANCE of sustained economic growth – or excellence in any sector.

The size of the NZ Public Service workforce, as at December 31 2025, has just been released.

As opposed to the coalition saying they are frugal the lowlights are:

Alwyn Poole: Why governing for the whole nation – and respect for every voter – counts.

The vote of an 18 year old deliquent in New Zealand is as important as that of Willy Apiata.

Anyone who wants to be in government and succeed in their ministerial portfolios needs to respect every voter and all of those who cannot vote – primarily children.

Alwyn Poole: Education processes and outcomes continue to get worse under the current coalition.

A lot has been made of “significant” changes to the NZ education system under Erica Stanford. Some things have been put in place (e.g. changes to early reading, cell-phone ban). Primary school curriculum changes are being rolled-out by schools during this year. Other changes - qualifications changes, senior curriculum - still have a long-way to go and there is much division in these areas.

Alwyn Poole: Just how deep our school attendance crisis is

1. At last count 10,000 5 to 13 year olds in NZ were not enrolled anywhere and no one was actively looking for them.

2. Approx. 11,000 children are home-schooled. These children are not “truant” but it does indicate an amount of dis-engagement with our state system.

Alwyn Poole: How to Improve Attendance in New Zealand.

School attendance in NZ is in deep trouble. Not just in reference to our historic levels but also compared to other OECD countries.

New Zealand’s school attendance is lower than the OECD average, especially in upper secondary ages, with rates dropping from 70% to 50% between 2015 and 2025.