Staying at home more will help with climate fight, West Midlands Authority says
In this newsletter:
1) EU considers labelling gas power as sustainable energy source
Financial Times, 22 March 2021
2) Green groups dismayed over leaked EU plans to label gas plants as 'green'
Radio France International, 23 March 2021
3) The Shale Party is just getting started
Dan Eberhart, Forbes, 20 March 2021
Financial Times, 22 March 2021
2) Green groups dismayed over leaked EU plans to label gas plants as 'green'
Radio France International, 23 March 2021
3) The Shale Party is just getting started
Dan Eberhart, Forbes, 20 March 2021
4) Did Warren Buffett anticipate a bull run In natural gas?
OilPrice.com, 17 March 2021
“Gas is a fossil fuel,” said Sebastien Godinot, an economist with the World Wildlife Fund, one of 225 scientists, financial institutions and NGOs who sounded the alarm over the plan in an open letter to the EU executive.
“The very idea of classifying it as environmentally sustainable is a disgrace.”
To avoid “greenwashing” and to set a gold standard for sustainable finance, the EU Commission has been working on a classification scheme, or taxonomy, to be finalised next month.
But divisions among the 27 members over how to classify natural gas – which consists primarily of methane – have forced Brussels to redraft its rule book.
According to a leaked document seen by RFI, gas plants that provide heating or cooling while also generating power could be considered green investments under strict conditions.
The facilities must be replace “inefficient,” high-polluting power plants, and they must emit no more than 270 grams of CO2 equivalent per kWh of energy.
“Gas-fired power generation plays an important role in guaranteeing the reliability of electricity supply,” the leaked report said.
Full story
3) The Shale Party is just getting started
Dan Eberhart, Forbes, 20 March 2021
The shale industry is making it rain for investors, generating record free-cash-flow (FCF) on the back of pandemic-related cost-cutting and rising oil prices. And the party is just getting started.
Oil prices are expected to continue to rise as the year progresses, and the global economy recovers with Covid-19 vaccinations ramping up. Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs now sees Brent prices averaging $75 a barrel in the second quarter and $80 in the third quarter, up from around $70 now.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) typically trades about $5 a barrel below Brent, and recent WTI prices of $65 have most shale plays firmly in the black, generating strong returns.
This marks a step-change for shale, a sector infamous for its “cash burn” — where capital expenditures exceed cash flow from operations — since its inception a decade ago.
The sector’s newfound profitability has made U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies darlings with investors in recent months. It could prompt greater access to capital markets if these firms can stay the course and resist the urge to invest in lower-return growth projects. And based on recent Q4 earnings presentations, the leading U.S. shale E&Ps plan to do just that.
The result will be an unprecedented windfall for these companies and their shareholders.
Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that the U.S. shale industry will generate about $73.6 billion in cash flow from operations this year, up nearly a third over last year, based on a WTI price of $50.
And that forecast looks far too low, given that WTI has already moved to $65. It means that shale firms will be swimming in FCF this year, where cash flow from operations exceeds CAPEX. Most E&Ps budgeted for WTI to average less than $50 this year.
All that FCF will allow them to reduce debt more aggressively or return more cash to stockholders through dividends or share repurchases. That makes shale a very attractive bet in the post-Covid world.
Full post
OilPrice.com, 17 March 2021
5) No Sh*t Sherlock: Most companies not serious about Net Zero
The Times, 24 March 2021
6) Staying at home more will help with climate fight, West Midlands Authority says
Transport Xtra, 22 March 2021
7) Astronomical cost of decarbonising housing - Harry Wilkinson on TalkRadio
TalkRadio, 23 March 2021
8) Patrick Moore and the Agenda of Fear
Janet Levy, American Thinker, 22 March 2021
9) And finally: Climate modelling 101: Running out of water ...
The Sydney Morning Herald, 25 April 2005
The Times, 24 March 2021
6) Staying at home more will help with climate fight, West Midlands Authority says
Transport Xtra, 22 March 2021
7) Astronomical cost of decarbonising housing - Harry Wilkinson on TalkRadio
TalkRadio, 23 March 2021
8) Patrick Moore and the Agenda of Fear
Janet Levy, American Thinker, 22 March 2021
9) And finally: Climate modelling 101: Running out of water ...
The Sydney Morning Herald, 25 April 2005
Full details:
1) EU considers labelling gas power as sustainable energy source
Financial Times, 22 March 2021
Brussels is considering classifying gas as a partially sustainable technology under its landmark green labelling system for investors who want to plough their money into sustainable finance.
Brussels was forced to revise its proposals earlier this year after its first draft text was roundly rejected by EU governments for excluding technologies such as gas © Bloomberg
In a draft legal text, seen by the Financial Times, the European Commission has paved the way for controversial technologies such as gas generated by fossil fuels to be recognised in its “taxonomy for sustainable finance”, raising fears that Brussels is engaging in “greenwashing”.
The EU’s taxonomy is designed to be the world’s first classification system for green financial products by establishing science-based criteria on what should count as truly sustainable economic activity.
The exercise is being closely watched as the first major attempt by a regulatory power to create a labelling scheme that will help guide billions of euros of investment into green financial products.
Brussels was forced to revise its proposals earlier this year after its first draft text was roundly rejected by EU governments for excluding technologies such as gas and nuclear power.
The EU has committed to becoming the world’s first greenhouse gas neutral continent by 2050 and wants to ramp up its 2030 emissions reduction target to 55 per cent.
But many of its 27 member states are fiercely protective over their right to use sources such as gas and nuclear power as part of the transition to net zero emissions. They fear that the taxonomy’s criteria would create a de facto blacklist of activities that are still needed to help bring down emissions in many economic sectors.
Environmental campaigners have, however, warned against attempts to create “shades of green” in the taxonomy, arguing for a total exclusion of fossil fuels from the highest green label.
Full story (£)
2) Green groups dismayed over leaked EU plans to label gas plants as 'green'
Radio France International, 23 March 2021
Environmental groups on Tuesday expressed dismay at leaked proposals by the European Union to classify some gas plants as environmentally sustainable investments.
Financial Times, 22 March 2021
Brussels is considering classifying gas as a partially sustainable technology under its landmark green labelling system for investors who want to plough their money into sustainable finance.
Brussels was forced to revise its proposals earlier this year after its first draft text was roundly rejected by EU governments for excluding technologies such as gas © Bloomberg
In a draft legal text, seen by the Financial Times, the European Commission has paved the way for controversial technologies such as gas generated by fossil fuels to be recognised in its “taxonomy for sustainable finance”, raising fears that Brussels is engaging in “greenwashing”.
The EU’s taxonomy is designed to be the world’s first classification system for green financial products by establishing science-based criteria on what should count as truly sustainable economic activity.
The exercise is being closely watched as the first major attempt by a regulatory power to create a labelling scheme that will help guide billions of euros of investment into green financial products.
Brussels was forced to revise its proposals earlier this year after its first draft text was roundly rejected by EU governments for excluding technologies such as gas and nuclear power.
The EU has committed to becoming the world’s first greenhouse gas neutral continent by 2050 and wants to ramp up its 2030 emissions reduction target to 55 per cent.
But many of its 27 member states are fiercely protective over their right to use sources such as gas and nuclear power as part of the transition to net zero emissions. They fear that the taxonomy’s criteria would create a de facto blacklist of activities that are still needed to help bring down emissions in many economic sectors.
Environmental campaigners have, however, warned against attempts to create “shades of green” in the taxonomy, arguing for a total exclusion of fossil fuels from the highest green label.
Full story (£)
2) Green groups dismayed over leaked EU plans to label gas plants as 'green'
Radio France International, 23 March 2021
Environmental groups on Tuesday expressed dismay at leaked proposals by the European Union to classify some gas plants as environmentally sustainable investments.
An aerial view of four natural gas power plants run by RWE Power in Hamm, Germany. REUTERS - Wolfgang Rattay
“Gas is a fossil fuel,” said Sebastien Godinot, an economist with the World Wildlife Fund, one of 225 scientists, financial institutions and NGOs who sounded the alarm over the plan in an open letter to the EU executive.
“The very idea of classifying it as environmentally sustainable is a disgrace.”
To avoid “greenwashing” and to set a gold standard for sustainable finance, the EU Commission has been working on a classification scheme, or taxonomy, to be finalised next month.
But divisions among the 27 members over how to classify natural gas – which consists primarily of methane – have forced Brussels to redraft its rule book.
According to a leaked document seen by RFI, gas plants that provide heating or cooling while also generating power could be considered green investments under strict conditions.
The facilities must be replace “inefficient,” high-polluting power plants, and they must emit no more than 270 grams of CO2 equivalent per kWh of energy.
“Gas-fired power generation plays an important role in guaranteeing the reliability of electricity supply,” the leaked report said.
Full story
3) The Shale Party is just getting started
Dan Eberhart, Forbes, 20 March 2021
The shale industry is making it rain for investors, generating record free-cash-flow (FCF) on the back of pandemic-related cost-cutting and rising oil prices. And the party is just getting started.
Oil prices are expected to continue to rise as the year progresses, and the global economy recovers with Covid-19 vaccinations ramping up. Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs now sees Brent prices averaging $75 a barrel in the second quarter and $80 in the third quarter, up from around $70 now.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) typically trades about $5 a barrel below Brent, and recent WTI prices of $65 have most shale plays firmly in the black, generating strong returns.
This marks a step-change for shale, a sector infamous for its “cash burn” — where capital expenditures exceed cash flow from operations — since its inception a decade ago.
The sector’s newfound profitability has made U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies darlings with investors in recent months. It could prompt greater access to capital markets if these firms can stay the course and resist the urge to invest in lower-return growth projects. And based on recent Q4 earnings presentations, the leading U.S. shale E&Ps plan to do just that.
The result will be an unprecedented windfall for these companies and their shareholders.
Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that the U.S. shale industry will generate about $73.6 billion in cash flow from operations this year, up nearly a third over last year, based on a WTI price of $50.
And that forecast looks far too low, given that WTI has already moved to $65. It means that shale firms will be swimming in FCF this year, where cash flow from operations exceeds CAPEX. Most E&Ps budgeted for WTI to average less than $50 this year.
All that FCF will allow them to reduce debt more aggressively or return more cash to stockholders through dividends or share repurchases. That makes shale a very attractive bet in the post-Covid world.
Full post
4) Did Warren Buffett anticipate a bull run In natural gas?
OilPrice.com, 17 March 2021
Lower production of U.S. natural gas and rising global demand for the commodity are setting the stage for a bull market in natural gas in the medium to long term, which Warren Buffett may have predicted when he invested in U.S. natural gas assets in the summer of 2020.
Last July, an affiliate of Berkshire Hathaway bought all of the gas transmission and storage assets of Dominion Energy in a nearly $10-billion deal, including debt assumption. For Berkshire Hathaway, it was the first major acquisition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and the biggest acquisition in four years. In the following month, Berkshire Hathaway announced it had bought 5 percent in each of Japan’s five biggest trading companies, which are key importers of energy into the country.
Buffett is betting on the rise of natural gas demand, Ross Hendricks, Vice President of EnergyFunders, writes in Seeking Alpha.
From today’s perspective, energy bets on fossil fuels may be contrarian to the ESG trend for divesting oil and gas and coal and investing in clean energy solutions, but Buffett could be right with his bet on natural gas.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Berkshire Hathaway has also recently unveiled an investment of US$4.1 billion in Chevron stock, another sign that Buffett doesn’t see fossil fuels as doomed.
There are signs that natural gas is the fossil fuel with the highest growth potential in coming years and even decades. Global natural gas demand is set to recoup this year most of the demand lost in the pandemic. LNG trade and demand will only grow over the next two decades. LNG demand is set to nearly double from 360 million tons last year to 700 million tons by 2040, thanks to continued solid demand from Asia and a rise in gas use for powering hard-to-electrify sectors, Shell said in its annual LNG Outlook 2021 last month.
In addition, U.S. LNG exports are also surging, while last year and this year domestic U.S. natural gas production would be lower than expected just over a year ago, as the collapse in oil prices led to lower associated gas production from fewer producing oil wells.
OilPrice.com, 17 March 2021
Lower production of U.S. natural gas and rising global demand for the commodity are setting the stage for a bull market in natural gas in the medium to long term, which Warren Buffett may have predicted when he invested in U.S. natural gas assets in the summer of 2020.
Last July, an affiliate of Berkshire Hathaway bought all of the gas transmission and storage assets of Dominion Energy in a nearly $10-billion deal, including debt assumption. For Berkshire Hathaway, it was the first major acquisition since the start of the coronavirus pandemic and the biggest acquisition in four years. In the following month, Berkshire Hathaway announced it had bought 5 percent in each of Japan’s five biggest trading companies, which are key importers of energy into the country.
Buffett is betting on the rise of natural gas demand, Ross Hendricks, Vice President of EnergyFunders, writes in Seeking Alpha.
From today’s perspective, energy bets on fossil fuels may be contrarian to the ESG trend for divesting oil and gas and coal and investing in clean energy solutions, but Buffett could be right with his bet on natural gas.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Berkshire Hathaway has also recently unveiled an investment of US$4.1 billion in Chevron stock, another sign that Buffett doesn’t see fossil fuels as doomed.
There are signs that natural gas is the fossil fuel with the highest growth potential in coming years and even decades. Global natural gas demand is set to recoup this year most of the demand lost in the pandemic. LNG trade and demand will only grow over the next two decades. LNG demand is set to nearly double from 360 million tons last year to 700 million tons by 2040, thanks to continued solid demand from Asia and a rise in gas use for powering hard-to-electrify sectors, Shell said in its annual LNG Outlook 2021 last month.
In addition, U.S. LNG exports are also surging, while last year and this year domestic U.S. natural gas production would be lower than expected just over a year ago, as the collapse in oil prices led to lower associated gas production from fewer producing oil wells.
5) No Sh*t Sherlock: Most companies not serious about Net Zero
The Times, 24 March 2021
Most businesses need to improve the credibility of their Net Zero targets and their plans for meeting them to avoid accusations of “greenwashing”
More than a fifth of the world’s biggest public companies have made commitments to cut their emissions to “net zero”, according to a study.
However, most businesses need to go further to improve the credibility of their targets and their plans for meeting them to avoid accusations of “greenwashing”, the report’s authors warn….
Out of the 2,000 largest publicly traded companies by sales, 417 have set net zero goals, the report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and Oxford Net Zero has found.
However, the quality and credibility of the targets varies widely. Only 27 per cent of the companies that have set targets include emissions across all “scopes” — including “scope 3” emissions in the value chain, such as those from customers using their products….
The report also highlights concerns that too many companies may be relying on offsetting their emissions through carbon credits — paying for emissions cuts elsewhere, rather than cutting their own.
Full story (£)
6) Staying at home more will help with climate fight, West Midlands Authority says
Transport Xtra, 22 March 2021
The West Midlands Combined Authority wants people to stay at home more even after Covid-19, in order to help fight climate change.
The Times, 24 March 2021
Most businesses need to improve the credibility of their Net Zero targets and their plans for meeting them to avoid accusations of “greenwashing”
More than a fifth of the world’s biggest public companies have made commitments to cut their emissions to “net zero”, according to a study.
However, most businesses need to go further to improve the credibility of their targets and their plans for meeting them to avoid accusations of “greenwashing”, the report’s authors warn….
Out of the 2,000 largest publicly traded companies by sales, 417 have set net zero goals, the report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and Oxford Net Zero has found.
However, the quality and credibility of the targets varies widely. Only 27 per cent of the companies that have set targets include emissions across all “scopes” — including “scope 3” emissions in the value chain, such as those from customers using their products….
The report also highlights concerns that too many companies may be relying on offsetting their emissions through carbon credits — paying for emissions cuts elsewhere, rather than cutting their own.
Full story (£)
6) Staying at home more will help with climate fight, West Midlands Authority says
Transport Xtra, 22 March 2021
The West Midlands Combined Authority wants people to stay at home more even after Covid-19, in order to help fight climate change.
The WMCA’s first five-year decarbonisation plan, prepared by consultant WSP, sets targets for reductions in commuting, shopping and personal trips.
The plan aims to set the conurbation on the pathway to achieving net zero emissions by 2041 (six per cent of emissions would be offset).
WMCA officers were this week recommending that the combined authority board endorses WSP’s recommendation of an “accelerated pathway” that will cut carbon dioxide emissions to 8.1 million tonnes by 2026, 33 per cent below a 2016 baseline.
Describing the pathway as “highly ambitious”, the plan nonetheless says:
“‘accelerated’ scenario is recommended to be used as the standard to set the delivery goal ambitions.
“The change in delivery pace required is huge and unprecedented. It requires collaboration and delivery across all sectors well beyond current efforts.
“People will need to make significant changes to their lifestyles, which will positively impact on their health and wellbeing.”
Transport actions are listed under three headings: “avoid”, “shift” and “improve”.
On “avoid”, the plan says that by 2026:
* personal and retail trips should be cut six per cent against pre-pandemic levels
* nine per cent of people should telecommute 50 per cent of the time. The WMCA estimates that 5-10 per cent of people worked from home before Covid-19
More dramatic trip reductions will be needed in the longer-term. By 2041, the plan says:
* personal and retail trips should be cut 25 per cent
* 35 per cent of people should work from home or at local ‘hubs’ 50 per cent of time
The reduction in trips will mean job losses in some industries. “Reduced demand for city services such as food and beverage stores,” says the plan.
Full story (£)
7) Astronomical cost of decarbonising housing - Harry Wilkinson on TalkRadio
TalkRadio, 23 March 2021
The plan aims to set the conurbation on the pathway to achieving net zero emissions by 2041 (six per cent of emissions would be offset).
WMCA officers were this week recommending that the combined authority board endorses WSP’s recommendation of an “accelerated pathway” that will cut carbon dioxide emissions to 8.1 million tonnes by 2026, 33 per cent below a 2016 baseline.
Describing the pathway as “highly ambitious”, the plan nonetheless says:
“‘accelerated’ scenario is recommended to be used as the standard to set the delivery goal ambitions.
“The change in delivery pace required is huge and unprecedented. It requires collaboration and delivery across all sectors well beyond current efforts.
“People will need to make significant changes to their lifestyles, which will positively impact on their health and wellbeing.”
Transport actions are listed under three headings: “avoid”, “shift” and “improve”.
On “avoid”, the plan says that by 2026:
* personal and retail trips should be cut six per cent against pre-pandemic levels
* nine per cent of people should telecommute 50 per cent of the time. The WMCA estimates that 5-10 per cent of people worked from home before Covid-19
More dramatic trip reductions will be needed in the longer-term. By 2041, the plan says:
* personal and retail trips should be cut 25 per cent
* 35 per cent of people should work from home or at local ‘hubs’ 50 per cent of time
The reduction in trips will mean job losses in some industries. “Reduced demand for city services such as food and beverage stores,” says the plan.
Full story (£)
7) Astronomical cost of decarbonising housing - Harry Wilkinson on TalkRadio
TalkRadio, 23 March 2021
GWPF Head of Policy, Harry Wilkinson, speaks to TalkRadio's Julia Hartley Brewer about a new parliamentary report that suggests energy efficiency improvements required to meet Net Zero will cost £18,000 per home across 19 million homes - £342bn in total. And that's before you add the cost of replacing gas boilers with heat pumps.
Full interview
8) Patrick Moore and the Agenda of Fear
Janet Levy, American Thinker, 22 March 2021
Politically motivated climate alarmists are using fear to gain control of human behavior and environmental resources and undermine free, prosperous societies.
Dr. Patrick Moore, an ecologist and disillusioned cofounder of Greenpeace, exposes their agendas and false claims in his recent book Fake Invisible Catastrophes and Threats of Doom.
Full interview
8) Patrick Moore and the Agenda of Fear
Janet Levy, American Thinker, 22 March 2021
Politically motivated climate alarmists are using fear to gain control of human behavior and environmental resources and undermine free, prosperous societies.
Dr. Patrick Moore, an ecologist and disillusioned cofounder of Greenpeace, exposes their agendas and false claims in his recent book Fake Invisible Catastrophes and Threats of Doom.
As a young scientist, Moore was committed to promoting conservation -- the responsible use of the earth’s resources -- and participated in Greenpeace’s initial campaigns against underground H-bomb testing, whale hunting, and polar bear culling. The disillusionment was gradual. Face to face with activists ostensibly seeking a balance between environmental, social, and economic priorities (“sustainable development”), he was struck by how the then-nascent concept took no consideration of any impact on humankind, and also by how it fiercely inculpated normal human activity. He parted ways with Greenpeace when it promoted “sustainable development” with a fear-mongering, anti-science, anti-human ideology designed to maximize fundraising. In a previous book, Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout: The Making of a Sensible Environmentalist, he explains how the coup de grace came over Greenpeace’s fight for a ban on chlorine. Moore views chlorination of water as the biggest advance in public health.
His latest book gives example after example to demonstrate that the “climate crisis” is fake news driven more by ideology than real science. He demolishes fallacious doomsday prophesies one by one. A chief characteristic of these scares is that they conveniently use data related to invisible (CO2, radiation) or remote (coral reefs, polar bears, walruses) entities that average citizens cannot validate through independent observation. For explication, the public is forced to rely on activists, the media, scientists, and politicians -- all of whom have huge financial or professional stakes in propping up dubious catastrophic scenarios.
Full book review
9) And finally: Climate modelling 101: Running out of water ...
The Sydney Morning Herald, 25 April 2005
"If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."
His latest book gives example after example to demonstrate that the “climate crisis” is fake news driven more by ideology than real science. He demolishes fallacious doomsday prophesies one by one. A chief characteristic of these scares is that they conveniently use data related to invisible (CO2, radiation) or remote (coral reefs, polar bears, walruses) entities that average citizens cannot validate through independent observation. For explication, the public is forced to rely on activists, the media, scientists, and politicians -- all of whom have huge financial or professional stakes in propping up dubious catastrophic scenarios.
Full book review
9) And finally: Climate modelling 101: Running out of water ...
The Sydney Morning Herald, 25 April 2005
"If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia."
[...] "Perth is facing the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the city's water supply," says Tim Flannery, director of the South Australian Museum and Australia's most high profile scientist and ecologist. His next book, to be published in October, will feature the water crises faced by Perth and Sydney.
"I'm personally more worried about Sydney than Perth," Flannery told me. "Where does Sydney go for more water? At least Perth has a buffer of underground water sources. Sydney doesn't have any backup. And while Perth is forging ahead with a desalination plant, Sydney doesn't have any major scheme in place to bolster water. It also has nowhere to put the vast infrastructure of a desalination plant."
Climate change is working against Sydney. "There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, "yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable … If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia... Water is going to be in short supply across the eastern states," says Flannery.....
"I'm personally more worried about Sydney than Perth," Flannery told me. "Where does Sydney go for more water? At least Perth has a buffer of underground water sources. Sydney doesn't have any backup. And while Perth is forging ahead with a desalination plant, Sydney doesn't have any major scheme in place to bolster water. It also has nowhere to put the vast infrastructure of a desalination plant."
Climate change is working against Sydney. "There's only two years' water supply in Warragamba Dam," says Flannery, "yet Frank Sartor [NSW Minister for Energy and Utilities] is talking about the situation being stable … If the computer models are right then drought conditions will become permanent in eastern Australia... Water is going to be in short supply across the eastern states," says Flannery.....
The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.
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