An Open Letter to Dr Rod Carr, Chair, New Zealand Climate Change Commission
For the personal attention of
Dr Rod Carr
New Zealand Climate Change Commission
Dear Dr Carr
The third-to-last paragraph of your “Letter from the Chair” in the Commission’s Report dated 31 January 2021 is:
“We are seeking feedback on our draft advice before it is finalised. There are matters of fact, assumptions and value judgments we invite you to review. We are committed to true consultation. We will consider all evidence we receive through consultation and are prepared to change any part of our work in light of this.”
The final paragraph of your “Letter from the Chair” in the Commission’s Report dated 31 January 2021 is:
“The climate science is clear, the direction of climate policy is laid out and the time for accelerated climate action is now.”
The feedback from the Environomics (NZ) Trust is as follows:
About forty years ago, when developing their climate models NASA climate scientist James Hansen and his team inadvertently made two fundamental errors in applying control systems theory, which they had borrowed from the established science of control systems – a branch of physics and engineering. We now know they did not properly understand control theory and applied it incorrectly to climate science.
Ever since, the politically acceptable climate scientists have perpetuated those two fundamental errors in their climate models, with the consequence that they grossly overestimated ‘climate sensitivity’ – defined as the global warming in Celsius degrees resulting from every doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 – by a factor of 3.2.
Thus – now that the climate science really is clear – there is no climate emergency. There never was, and there never will be. We therefore don’t have to do anything to attempt to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere – but more of it would in fact be beneficial, as that would enhance all plant growth and make it easier to feed the world’s people.
Our planet would be a much better place if we put more effort into reducing pollution in all its forms, especially plastic in the oceans. CO2 is not a pollutant – it is a compound absolutely essential to all plants, and hence to all animals and humans. More CO2 will help enormously in the greening of our planet.
The two fundamental errors mentioned above were discovered and explained quite recently by a group of ten highly qualified people, four of whom are control systems engineers, one being a tenured professor in the discipline. They call themselves ‘the Argonauts’, and they are listed below.
Following this letter is the Environomics (NZ) Trust’s one-page synopsis of the Argonauts’ 12-page summary of their 72-page paper. The 72-page paper is presently awaiting peer review and it would be prejudicial to that process for it to be prematurely published. However, should the New Zealand Climate Change Commission wish to receive a copy for review, Viscount Monckton has assured me that he will email a copy to you if you ask him to. His email address is shown on the final page of this document.
I sent an Open Letter to the Prime Minister on 1 January 2021, explaining the situation regarding the Argonauts’ proof that there is no climate emergency and there never will be. That Open Letter was copied to all MPs and Local Government Councillors. On 18 January 2021, I emailed a copy of that Open Letter to yourself and all other members of the Climate Change Commission.
Then, on 29 January 2021, I emailed the members of the Climate Change Commission, asking you to delay the publication of your Report until you had refuted the Argonauts’ work. That you chose to ignore my Open Letter to the Prime Minister and also to ignore my request that you delay publication of your Report, by publishing your Report on 31 January 2021, shows your supreme confidence that the Argonauts are wrong and that the IPCC is correct.
You should have no hesitation, therefore, in availing yourself of the opportunity to publicly show that the Argonauts are wrong.
A challenge to a debate:
You, as the Chair of the New Zealand Climate Change Commission, are therefore hereby challenged to pit a three-person team consisting of your fellow Commissioner Prof. James Renwick and two other climate scientists of your choice, against a three-person team representing the Environomics (NZ) Trust, in a public debate regarding the credibility of the science and climate models upon which your climate policy recommendations and the declaration of a ‘climate emergency’ are based. The moot will be “The Argonauts are correct”, with your team taking the negative and the Environomics (NZ) Trust’s team taking the positive. The debate will be held via Zoom on a mutually-agreed date in March 2021, after which it will be available on the Internet for anybody to view whenever they wish.
The Environomics (NZ) Trust expects to receive your response before 5 pm on 11 February 2021.
The Argonauts’ discovery of politically acceptable climatology’s errors exposes the crisis that never was. Mankind has much more significant issues to be concerned about than higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and slightly warmer weather worldwide, which will improve crop yields whilst continuing to shrink our planet’s deserts.
Nor can the increase in atmospheric CO2 acidify the oceans. It is nothing less than a bastardisation of the English language for anybody to claim that the oceans are acidifying. The mass of the CO2 naturally occurring in the alkaline oceans is 50 to 70 times the mass of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Consequently, there is no “ocean acidification crisis”. Our planet’s oceans are alkaline and they will remain alkaline.
Apart from all of the above, the warming effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is a rapidly diminishing one: that is, each doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases the global mean temperature by the same 1.25 Celsius degrees, which would be net beneficial.
Government Ministers, officials in New Zealand and worldwide, the IPCC, and the Climate Change Commission now face two choices: either to refute scientifically the carefully-verified science summarized here and in the 12-page ordinary person’s guide to the Argonauts’ research results or to accept that politicized climatologists’ dire over-predictions have been based on an inadvertent, elementary error of physics and engineering all along, appreciate that there is no “climate emergency”, and agree that current emissions abatement policies are scientifically, economically, and morally unjustifiable.
If Ministers and their climate scientists are unable to conclude that the Argonauts’ research is unsound and show why, they are duty-bound immediately to withdraw New Zealand from all climate agreements and all organisations promoting such agreements, rescind all legislation and taxes pertaining to climate change, remove all subsidies for renewable electricity and electric cars, cease to switch government vehicles to all-electric and halt the eradication of coal burning for both electricity generation and process heat. They are also duty-bound to reinstate the normal operations of the oil, gas and coal industries. They should not compound the economic damage from the Covid pandemic with still further damage from extremely costly but futile CO2 emissions abatement. Also, they should immediately disband the office of Minister for Climate Change, and disband the Climate Change Commission.
Finally, clicking on this hyperlink: https://clintel.org/world-climate-declaration/ should give you cause to ponder why no climate scientist has ever been able to produce any verifiable physical evidence that mankind’s emissions of CO2 have caused an increase in the global mean temperature. If that didn’t give you pause to ponder, then this one should: https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/
Computer models whose output do not match observed reality should be discredited forthwith!
The immortal words of Mark Twain have never been truer: “It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so!”
Worldwide, governments are now in an analogous position to the one the Pope was in when Galileo confronted the conventional wisdom that the Earth was the centre of the universe and all the planets revolved around Earth. Galileo correctly explained that the conventional wisdom was wrong and that all the planets orbit our Sun. History has recorded that eventually, the Catholic Church and everybody else accepted that Galileo was correct. Today, we wonder at what took them so long to come to their senses!
How intransigent will the New Zealand Climate Change Commission and the New Zealand Government be, and how much time will elapse, and how many of our scarce resources of capital, human intellect and labour, and how much taxpayers’ money, will be wasted before the New Zealand Climate Change Commission and the New Zealand Government – and everybody else – concede that the Argonauts are correct?
How much disruption to the lives and reduction of the incomes of decent, hardworking New Zealanders have to occur – all for nothing – before the New Zealand Climate Change Commission and the New Zealand Government – and everybody else – concede that the Argonauts are correct?
Peter J. Morgan B.E. (Mech.), Dip. Teaching
Honorary Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Environomics (NZ) Trust
PS: On the following two pages is my synopsis of the Argonauts’ 12-page summary of their 72-page paper ‘Climate of Error’, followed by some further comment, with a link so that you may download and read the Argonaut’s 12-page summary.
A synopsis of the Argonauts’ 12-page summary of their paper ‘Climate of Error’
By Peter J. Morgan B.E. (Mech.), Dip. Teaching
Politicised climate scientists say their models and their case for rapid, dangerous, manmade global warming are based on “sound science”. They are not. In a new learned paper the Argonauts – ten eminent experts –demonstrate irrefutably that climate scientists made a grave error of physics when borrowing feedback method from control theory, a branch of engineering physics outside their field, and misunderstood it. The models on which current climate action is based are thus grossly wrong. There is no “climate emergency”.
In 1984 James Hansen, a NASA climate scientist, published one of the earliest papers to embody the error. In 1988, on the basis of the error, he gave evidence to the US Congress, in which he predicted doom and gloom if mankind did not drastically reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a trace greenhouse gas. He had imagined that a small direct warming caused by CO2 would trigger a large additional warming – a feedback response – chiefly by more water vapour, the dominant greenhouse gas, in the warmer air.
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, who has published many peer-reviewed climate papers, wondered why the real world was warming at only a third of the rapid rate that climate scientists had originally predicted. He gathered an international team of eminent Professors, doctors and practitioners of climatology, physics, control theory and engineering, to hunt down a suspected systemic error. They became the Argonauts.
Sure enough, the Argonauts discovered that back in 1984 Hansen and his team of climate scientists had misunderstood feedback theory. They had applied it incorrectly, as have all other climate scientists since. Hansen and his team of climate scientists made two significant errors, the second exceedingly large and fundamental. Until now, the control theorists from whom they had borrowed were unaware of how their branch of engineering physics had been misapplied.
Climate scientists’ first error: They failed to take account of the fact that with no greenhouse gases in the air there would be no clouds to reflect solar radiation harmlessly back to space, like a mirror. The true emission temperature, which would prevail near the surface with no greenhouse gases in the air at the outset, would be about 12 Celsius degrees greater than they had thought. Accordingly, the true natural greenhouse effect was not 32 Celsius degrees but just under 20 Celsius degrees.
Climate scientists’ second, exceedingly large and fundamental error: Astonishingly, they failed to take account of the fact that the Sun is shining and drives its own large feedback response. They had thought that all of the 24 Celsius degrees of preindustrial feedback response until 1850 came from feedback response to direct warming by noncondensing greenhouse gases (gases other than water vapour). However, nearly all of that 24 Celsius degrees of feedback response was triggered not by greenhouse gases but by the emission temperature from the Sun’s warmth. In effect, they added that large solar feedback response to, and miscounted it as part of, the small feedback response to greenhouse gases, consequently enormously overstating that small feedback response by a factor of 33 (i.e. by 3200%).
I believe it entirely appropriate that we should follow the advice of Jesus while he was being crucified – “Father, forgive them, for they know not what they do.” (Luke 23:34)
The Argonauts found that, of the true 19.92 Celsius degrees of natural greenhouse effect, 13.1 Celsius degrees was solar feedback response. They calculated preindustrial feedback response to the 6.1 Celsius degrees of direct warming by greenhouse gases as being 0.72 Celsius degrees. (13.1 + 6.1 + 0.72 = 19.92). Climate scientists’ 24- Celsius-degree feedback response was therefore 24 / 0.72 = 33 times (2 s.f. – significant figures) what it should have been. That was why they ended up similarly overstating the feedback response to the direct industrial- era warming driven largely by anthropogenic CO2 emissions since 1850.
The effect of climate scientists’ overstatement was severe. The Argonauts, in a 72-page scientific paper now under peer review, found that, due to the error, the currently-predicted rate of manmade global warming is 3.2 times what it actually is. The IPCC’s published range of climate sensitivity is from 1.5 Celsius degrees to 4.5 Celsius degrees, but with the Argonauts’ correction applied, this range should be from 0.5 Celsius degrees to 1.4 Celsius degrees. Climate sensitivity is defined as the expected temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Atmospheric CO2 is now 415 ppm, and when it has doubled to 830 ppm we can therefore expect temperatures to have increased by, at most, only 1.4 Celsius degrees. Such small, slow warming will be of overall benefit to mankind. Correcting climate scientists’ grave error of physics ends the climate “emergency”.
At last we know why there will be too little global warming to harm us. There is no climate “emergency”. There never was. Around the world, trillions of dollars have been wasted on destroying jobs and industries. Now we know that, rather than spending many more trillions on futile attempts to reach the unattainable “Net-Zero Carbon”, we can focus on solving the world’s many real problems, such as chemical pollution, and poverty – even in advanced countries – worsened by global warming mania. Happily, global warming is not a problem.
End of synopsis.
I acknowledge with thanks the invaluable contribution of Christopher Monckton of Brenchley to the writing of the above synopsis. He gave freely of his valuable time to help to make it so readily understandable.
The Argonauts’ simplified, 12-page explanation of their welcome discovery may be downloaded from:
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley (firstname.lastname@example.org) is a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher on science and policy at 10 Downing Street. He discovered climate scientists’ error and gathered the Argonauts to investigate it.
Dr Dietrich Jeschke is Professor of Control Theory at the Flensburg University of Applied Sciences. Dr Willie Soon is an award-winning astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Dr David Legates is Executive Director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Professor of Climatology at the University of Delaware and a former State Climatologist.
Dipl.-Ing. Michael Limburg is a control engineer and climate specialist at the Europäisches Institut für Klima und Energie.
Alex Henney advises governments worldwide on the global electricity market and grid development. He conceived the idea for the 12-page summary of the 72-page paper and wrote the first draft.
John Whitfield is a control engineer. He designed and built the test apparatus on which this research was verified. His work was later confirmed by a similar test apparatus at a government physical laboratory.
James Morrison is an environmental consultant who once sold wind turbines to Napa Valley wineries. Dr Tom Sheahen is a physicist and alumnus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
William Rostron is an award-winning control engineer who designed and programmed the world-leading integrated control system at the Oconee Nuclear Facility, Seneca, South Carolina.
Peter J. Morgan B.E. (Mech.), Dip. Teaching, is the Honorary Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Environomics (NZ) Trust, a Consulting Forensic Engineer, Marine Designer, Technical Writer, Sub-editor and Technical Editor.