Pages

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

GWPF Newsletter: World ignores climate concerns as CO2 emissions come roaring back

 





Most nations ignore Paris Agreement, UN warns

In this newsletter:

1) World ignores climate concerns as CO2 emissions come roaring back
Bloomberg, 2 March 2021
 
2) World feigns climate concerns as most nations ignore Paris Agreement
The Times, 27 February 2021


 
3) Build back faster: China’s CO2 emissions surged 4% in second half of 2020
Carbon Brief, 1 March 2021
 

4) China’s coal surge as new coal power plants go online
South China Morning Post, 28 February 2021

5) India’s percentage CO2 emissions rose faster than the world average
The Hindu, 1 March 2021
 
6) Oil stocks are destroying clean energy in 2021 after years of lagging behind
Axios, 24 February 2021
 
7) Ross Clark: Why is there always a round of climate change scaremongering after the weather changes?
The Daily Telegraph, 26 February 2021 
 
8) California’s Climate Contradictions
The Wall Street Journal, 27 February 2021

Full details:

1) World ignores climate concerns as CO2 emissions come roaring back
Bloomberg, 2 March 2021

In December, global emissions were higher than during the same month in 2019, according to new data from the International Energy Agency. 

Pandemic restrictions in 2020 caused the largest absolute drop in carbon-dioxide pollution from energy use since World War II. But lockdowns eventually lifted, and as economic activity picked up, emissions resumed very quickly by year’s end. In December, worldwide emissions were 2% higher than the same month in 2019, according to new data from the International Energy Agency. 
 
Emissions from energy fell by about 2 billion metric tons, or 5.8% in 2020, from the prior year. Such a plunge “is without precedent in human history — broadly speaking, this is the equivalent of removing all of the European Union’s emissions from the global total,” the authors wrote.
 
Both the U.S. and EU saw emissions fall by 10%, with the steepest reductions concentrated in March, April, and May. China was the only large economy that saw emissions increase, by 0.8% on an annual basis. Much of that rise came toward the end of the year. China’s emissions were 7% higher in December 2020 than they were in December 2019.

Full story

2) World feigns climate concerns as most nations ignore Paris Agreement
The Times, 27 February 2021

A climate summit to be held in Glasgow in November will fail unless more countries follow Britain’s lead and make far more ambitious plans to cut emissions, the United Nations has said.














Only two of the world’s 18 largest greenhouse gas emitters — the UK and the European Union — have so far submitted plans for the COP26 summit that lay out extensive commitments and policies to reduce emissions. Other big emitters are either yet to submit updated strategies or have drafted plans that are too weak to achieve the 2015 Paris climate target of limiting global temperature rise to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
 
“This report shows that current levels of climate ambition are very far from putting us on a pathway that will meet our Paris agreement goals,” Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the UN climate change body, said. “While we acknowledge the recent political shift in momentum towards stronger climate action, decisions to accelerate and broaden climate action everywhere must be taken now.”
 
Alok Sharma, the COP26 president and former business secretary, said: “This report should serve as an urgent call to action. We must recognise that the window for action to safeguard our planet is closing fast.”
 
Analysis from Climate Action Tracker, an independent group, suggests that of the major economies to have submitted plans, the UK, EU, Argentina, Chile, Norway, Kenya and Ukraine increased their ambitions. Japan, South Korea, Russia, New Zealand, Switzerland and Australia submitted plans that failed to improve on their 2015 targets.
 
Full story (£)
 
3) Build back faster: China’s CO2 emissions surged 4% in second half of 2020
Carbon Brief, 1 March 2021

A surge in China’s output of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the second half of last year pushed the country’s emissions above their 2019 total, despite the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, new analysis for Carbon Brief shows.
 
While emissions fell approximately 3% in the first half of the year amid lockdowns, the second half made up for lost time, with emissions climbing more than 4%. In total across 2020, CO2 emissions increased by 1.5% compared with 2019, based on analysis of the country’s annual statistical communique.
 
China’s return to economic growth after its first Covid-19 lockdown has relied on stimulating polluting sectors, such as construction and heavy industry. This saw the country’s consumption of coal, oil and gas all growing dramatically in the second half of the year, despite the pandemic and the government’s new pledge to target carbon neutrality by 2060.
 
The new data highlights the significance of China’s new five-year plan targets, due to be released at the annual legislative session starting on Friday. The plan is unlikely to set targets that would stop the growth in CO2 emissions, but is likely to slow it down.
 
Surging emissions
 
In early 2020, severe lockdown measures to tackle the unfolding coronavirus pandemic saw China’s CO2 emissions drop by 10% year-on-year during February and March. As restrictions were lifted, however, emissions quickly surged past pre-Covid levels, going on to record an estimated 3% year-on-year increase in the third quarter of 2020.



Analysis of the full-year data in China’s new statistical release points to an even larger increase in the fourth quarter, pushing the overall total for 2020 to 1.5% above that seen in 2019. This emissions surge is shown in the chart below, with the change during the first half of 2020 marked yellow and the second half in red. Annual growth of China’s CO2 emissions, 2015-2020, calculated from the Statistical Communiques on Economic and Social Development. The annual changes in 2020 are broken down to show the effect of the economic shock from Covid-19 in the first half of the year and from the heavy industry-led recovery in the second half. The disaggregation to the first and second half of the year is based on data from news reports on energy statistics for the first half of the year and monthly industry data from WIND Financial Terminal. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
 
Whereas the annual increase of just 1.5% continues the recent downward trend in China’s emissions growth, the surge in the second half of the year points in a different direction.
 
Full post
 
4) China’s coal surge as new coal power plants go online
South China Morning Post, 28 February 2021

Coal share of energy consumption fell to 56.8 per cent, but overall coal usage rose by 0.6 per cent as dozens of new coal power plants went online.
 
Share of clean energy sources rose one percentage point to 24.3 per cent, but oil and natural gas usage rose more
 
China cut its coal use to 56.8 per cent of energy consumption at the end of 2020, maintaining its target of below 58 per cent, but overall coal consumption continued to rise amid record industrial output and the completion of dozens of coal-fired power plants.

The rapid roll-out of renewable-energy capacity and the growing use of natural gas has helped reduce the share of coal consumption from around 68 per cent over the past decade and 57.7 per cent a year earlier, but overall coal use has not peaked.

Coal consumption in the world’s biggest coal user and greenhouse gas emitter grew 0.6 per cent last year, the fourth consecutive increase, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Sunday.

The share of “clean” energy – including natural gas, hydropower, nuclear and wind power – rose one percentage point to 24.3 per cent of consumption, it said.

Energy consumption increased by 2.2 per cent to 4.98 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent last year, with crude oil demand growing by 3.3 per cent and natural gas by 7.2 per cent.
 
Full story
 
5) India’s percentage CO2 emissions rose faster than the world average
The Hindu, 1 March 2021

India’s percentage carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose slower in 2016-19 than in 2011-15 but was much above the world average of 0.7%, according to an analysis published in Nature Climate Change on Monday.
 
By comparison, China posted a 0.4% increase in 2016-19 and the United States registered a decline in emissions of 0.7%, though in absolute numbers they dwarf India’s emissions. In 2018, for instance, China emitted about 10 billion tonnes and the United States 5.41 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. India emitted 2.65 tonnes over the same time.
 
In 2020, when the pandemic dented economic growth, India’s emissions fell 9.7% to a little more than the world average of 9.6%.
 
The percentage changes are based on data supplied by the countries themselves. It comes ahead of a “global stock take” that shows how much reduction countries have achieved since signing the Paris Agreement in 2015, which commits the world to reducing emissions enough to keep the earth from warming below 0.5-1 degree Celsius by the end of the century. Countries are expected to convene at the United Nations Climate Summit in Glasgow, Scotland later this year to report on their progress and the ways ahead.

The CO2 emissions research by scientists at the University of East Anglia (UEA), United Kingdom; Stanford University, United States, and the Global Carbon Project, U.K., showed 64 countries cut their fossil CO2 emissions during 2016-2019, but the rate of reduction needed to increase tenfold to meet the Paris Agreement aims to tackle climate change.

While emissions decreased in 64 countries, they increased in 150 countries. Globally, emissions grew by 0.21 billion tonnes of CO2 per year during 2016-2019 compared to 2011-2015.
 
Full story
 
6) Oil stocks are destroying clean energy in 2021 after years of lagging behind
Axios, 24 February 2021

Over the past two years, electric vehicle and emerging renewable technology stocks have soared as investors priced in the transition away from fossil fuels, but so far in 2021 that narrative has reversed.


















By the numbers: XOP, an ETF that tracks the largest U.S. oil and gas companies, has gained nearly 40% so far this year as oil producers like Diamondback Energy and Occidental Petroleum have seen their shares jump by more than 50%.
 
The S&P 500 energy sector has been far and away the best performing of the index's 11 sectors (delivering 15 percentage points better return for investors this year than the second best sector, financials).
 
Diesel, crude oil and gasoline have been the world's top performing major assets in 2021, each gaining more than 25%.
 
On the other side: Clean energy has suffered, led by the swoon of 2020's world-beating stock, Tesla, which has dropped into "bear market" territory having fallen by 20.6% from its last record high on Jan. 8.
 
The decline in renewable energy names has been broad with companies as diverse as Chinese EV manufacturer Nio, California battery maker Romeo Power, hydrogen power company Plug Power and electric tractor trailer producer Hyliion Holdings all seeing big drops.
 
What they're saying: UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele is recommending "investors with a high risk appetite ... seek direct exposure to oil," even as crude prices reach one-year highs.
 
"As border closures and quarantine measures are eased, this should release pent-up demand for holiday travel and other types of recreational activity, boosting demand for oil," he said in a client note.
 
He expects global oil demand to reach 100 million barrels a day in the second half of the year, nearly equaling the global record of 102 million bpd.
 
Alternatively: "Given their aggressive discounting to present of long-term cash flows, they're suffering from the same effects as investment grade corporate bonds and anything else that pushes cash flow far into the future," Bespoke Investment Group said in a Monday post.
 
The big picture: Tech companies have broadly seen a turndown so far in February, but renewable energy companies have fared much worse. ICLN has declined 7.1% this year, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.5 % and the Nasdaq 100 is up 2.4%
 
The last word: The 2021 malaise is happening despite good news for the industry coming into the year: President Biden is expected to increase renewable energy investment in the U.S., oil prices are rising, and early estimates of global 2020 EV sales jumped to more than 3 million, reaching a market share of 4.4% — almost double 2019's 2.5% share.
 
7) Ross Clark: Why is there always a round of climate change scaremongering after the weather changes?
The Daily Telegraph, 26 February 2021
 
Whether it's floods or a drought, snowfall or no snow ever again, there's always a prediction about the impending doom of climate change



Had we not had a cold spell a couple of weeks ago I doubt many people would have got to hear about a paper in the journal Nature Geoscience claiming that something called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could, thanks to human-induced climate change, reach a tipping point by the end of the century bringing Europe much colder winters. 

Yet, thanks to us all shivering for a few days, the paper, by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, has fuelled claims that this month’s big freeze is a mere harbinger of even greater terror to come. 

It is only when you read the details that the case starts to weaken, rather like the AMOC itself.    Direct measurements of AMOC currents have only been taken since 2004 – incidentally the same year as the Hollywood blockbuster, The Day After Tomorrow, took to the screens, depicting London covered by an ice cap which reaches to near the top of Big Ben. To work out what happened before that, scientists rely on trying to interpret factors such as currents from patterns of ocean sediments and Greenland ice cores. And these, it seems, indicate that the AMOC has been weakening since 1850, well before carbon emissions could have had a significant impact on the climate. Moreover, ocean currents are only one influence on our climate; they are different from atmospheric circulation.

Hysteria, though, has a life of its own, far removed from proper scientific study of the climate. It is largely driven by what kind of weather we happen to have had recently. Last year, when we had floods in February, they, too, were a warning sign – in this case of much milder, wetter winters to come. This year, we had a cold spell – so now we’re doomed to a freezing future instead. Last December a Met Office scientist was telling Panorama that snow in Britain could soon be a ‘thing of the past’, with freezing days extinct from most of England by the 2040s. That doesn’t quite fit with record snowfall in parts of Aberdeenshire earlier this month, nor with current scaremongering over AMOC.   
 
Just listen to the words of James Bevan, chair of the Environment Agency, who told the Association of British Insurers this week: “over the last few years the reasonable worst case for several of the flood incidents the EA [Environment Agency] has responded to has actually happened, and the reasonable worst case scenarios are getting larger”.
 
Could this be the same James Bevan who last June, during a dry spell, said that we were wrong to think of Britain any longer being a “wet and rainy country” and blamed water shortages, too, on climate change?
 
In the Environment Agency’s case, climate change is a convenient excuse to bat away accusations that it is failing to manage river flows properly – although in the agency’s defence, flooding and water shortages are also a factor of things beyond its control, such as planning, land use policy and the water industry’s failure to make water meters universal in order to manage demand.Climate change is real in the sense that there is a long term upwards trend in global temperatures, fall in ice cover and accompanying rise in sea levels.
 
But much of the claims about us succumbing to ever wilder and more extreme weather is just hyperbole – lazy and contradictory assertion fed by our failure to remember that the weather always has been and always will be pretty extreme. 
 
8) California’s Climate Contradictions
The Wall Street Journal, 27 February 2021

New evidence that green policies punish the poor and subsidize the rich.

The contradictions of green energy policies are becoming more obvious in the real world, and now comes more evidence in a new study of California’s electricity rates. The policies even contradict green climate goals.
 
“California has charted an ambitious course towards decarbonizing its economy,” the study by nonprofit Next 10 and the University of California, Berkeley Energy Institute at Haas declares. “At the same time, California has among the highest electricity prices in the continental U.S. These two facts create a tension: decarbonizing the economy most likely requires electrification of transportation and space and water heating, but high prices push against such a transition. High prices also have troubling implications for equity and affordability.”

No kidding. California’s myriad green-energy subsidies and mandates are baked into electric rates, which are now about 80% higher in northern California than the national average and twice as high in San Diego.

The state requires renewables like wind and solar to make up 60% of electricity generation by 2030. The study says renewable prices (albeit with subsidies) are now roughly the same as other power sources, but utilities signed long-term contracts with solar and wind producers years ago when prices were higher. Utilities also need backup power when it’s cloudy, which adds costs. Yet the state sometimes has to pay Arizona to take its excess solar power to avoid overloading the grid.

And here’s the kicker: Folks with solar panels get paid for surplus power they don’t use—sometimes at two to three times the rate of wholesale power. So California pays the well-to-do to generate solar power it doesn’t need and then pays Arizona to take it.

We’ve written for years that state “net-metering” programs shift the grid’s fixed costs to low- and middle-income people without solar panels. The Next 10 study estimates that this cost shift translates into $230 more for an average annual electric bill and $124 for lower-income customers with subsidized rates in San Diego.

Yet 25% to 30% of all residential electricity is discounted for low-income customers, and “the cost of this subsidy is borne by all other customers,” the study says. In other words, the middle class ends up financing rate subsidies for the poor aimed at ameliorating the higher costs of solar subsidies for the well-to-do. California’s cap-and-trade program and utility “public purpose programs” like battery subsidies add several more cents per kilowatt hour.

The study concludes that the state’s electric rates are so regressive that they could discourage people from buying electric vehicles and electrifying their homes by replacing gas-fueled appliances. Instead of raising electric rates, the study suggests making policies more progressive by increasing income taxes to promote its climate goals. So subsidize the rich, then tax them more.

This is especially hilarious since Democratic lawmakers in Sacramento leaned on utilities to finance their climate spending so they wouldn’t have to divert general fund revenues from social welfare. But the poor are being punished nonetheless.

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

No comments: