Barry Brill: Weather Is Not Becoming More Extreme!

I have recently been very critical of Christopher Luxon for preferring faith to reason in weather-causation pronouncements he made as leader of a political party.

National weather records are easily obtainable and are no further away than Google or ChatGPK. But many commentators (not just politicians) like to make sweeping assertions that are the direct antithesis of this official data. They calculate that the constant repetition of a lie will make others assume it to be true.

The most common examples of this genre are claims that “weather extremes have been worse in recent years, because of climate change”. Lobbyists claim that the whole world is seeing record temperatures and unprecedented flooding, as well as more cyclones and tornadoes.

These claims are disproved outright by the historical weather data published by The State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) of USA. The USA has the world’s best historical weather series, and the SCEC was established in 2006 to ensure the data was not politicised.

Because the SCEC has 50 different datasets, all of which are acceptably homogenous for comparison purposes, their data is perfectly placed to identify any patterns or emerging trends. But no such patterns or trends are discernible.

The plain fact is that extreme weather events are not increasing. Nor is there any correlation between hot years and wet years.

The SCED data reproduced below shows that most record hot years and most record rainfall years occurred before the advent of discernible greenhouse warming  in the late 1970s. The data is provided by NOAA.

State                   Year of hottest temp     Heaviest rainfall

Alabama                            1925                                   1993

Alaska                                1915                                   1986

Arizona                              1994                                   1970

Arkansas                           1936                                   2015

California                          1913                                   1943

Colorado                           2019                                   2013

Connecticut                      1995                                   1955

Delaware                          1930                                   2016

Florida                               1931                                   1980

Georgia                             1983                                   1994

Hawaii                               1931                                   2018

Idaho                                 1934                                   1909

Illinois                                1954                                   1996

Indiana                              1936                                   1905

Iowa                                   1934                                   1998

Kansas                               1936                                   1969

Kentucky                           1930                                   1997

Louisiana                           1899                                   1962

Maine                                1911                                   1996

Maryland                          1936                                   1897

Massachusetts                 1975                                   1955

Michigan                           1936                                   2019

Minnesota                        1917                                   2007

Mississippi                        1930                                   1968

Missouri                            1954                                   1965

Montana                           1937                                   1921

Nebraska                           1936                                   1950

Nevada                              1994                                   2004

New Hampshire               1911                                   1996

New Jersey                       1936                                   1939

New Mexico                     1994                                   1955

New York                          1979                                   2014

North Carolina                 1983                                   1916

North Dakota                   1936                                   1975

Ohio                                   1934                                   1995

Oklahoma                         1936                                   1973

Oregon                              2021                                   2006

Pennsylvania                    1936                                   1972

Rhode Island                    1975                                   1932

South Carolina                 2012                                   1999

South Dakota                   2006                                   2007

Tennessee                        1930                                   2021

Texas                                 1994                                   1979

Utah                                  2021/1985                        1963

Vermont                           1933                                   1999

Virginia                              1954                                   1999

Washington                      2021                                   1986

West Virginia                   1936                                   1949

Wisconsin                         1936                                   1946

Wyoming                          1988                                   1985

The number of heat records prior to 1958 is 33 (2/3rds).

Barry Brill OBE JP LL.M(Hons) M.ComLaw is a former MP and Minister of Energy, Petrocorp director, and chair of the Gas Council, Power NZ, ESANZ, and EMCO. He is presently the Chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.