After an initial upswing in its support, the Hipkins-led Labour government is losing ground. The April Roy Morgan poll saw it registering only 30% support, down 3 points from March and two below National. The defection of Maiki Whatiri to Te Pati Maori came as a shock, but is seen as a further boost to the ranks of her new hosts who may win more seats, with the Roy Morgan sampling tracing their support to 4.5%, up 2.5 points.
It’s assumed by most commentators that Te Pati Maori would back a Labour-led coalition post-October 14 but that is not certain. They could sit on the cross-benches and wield more power there, particularly in their own field of interest.
Hipkins himself has been getting a taste of the high life in London, attending the coronation of King George 111, and claiming he had expedited the start of the free trade agreement with the UK at the end of this month as a benefit to NZ exporters, although they had been encouraged to think (by the Trade Minister) it would be operating by the end of 2022).
Labour backbenchers, particularly those in marginal seats, will now be pinning their hopes on Finance Minister Grant Robertson framing an election-winning budget, despite Hipkins saying it would be a “no-frills” document. Certainly the Reserve Bank which is desperately seeking to squeeze inflation out of the economy won’t want to see the Finance Minister indulging in a big election spend-up that would re-ignite the inflationary fires.
That would not rule out an appropriate and long overdue adjustment to tax brackets, of course — but since National has been calling for that, Robertson might want to be bolder and pull a lot of voters back into the Labour camp with more radical changes.
Revenue Minister David Parker seemed to be laying the groundwork for a wealth tax by calling for an IRD report on the tax paid by NZ’s wealthiest people. It disclosed that the bulk of them paid less than 10%, and this evoked a tide of “tax the rich” cries. How this might be done without a capital gains or wealth tax has not been disclosed by those enthusiasts.
Still, Robertson might still find some ingenious method of boosting revenue flows which would create the surplus from which he could finance significant tax breaks for lower and middle income groups.
But don’t count on it.
The difficulty for Robertson as he worked on his budget is that so many of his earlier pledges – despite the big numbers – have had little effect of either promoting NZ’s prosperity or of lifting living standards.
As Dr Bryce Wilkinson wrote recently:
“Discussions of tax burdens should not be allowed to distract attention from the elephant in the room – an abundance of ill-justified spending. Big government is no guarantee of prosperity, literacy, a well-run health system or quality public infrastructure. Sadly, these days New Zealand exhibits this point”.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
Hipkins himself has been getting a taste of the high life in London, attending the coronation of King George 111, and claiming he had expedited the start of the free trade agreement with the UK at the end of this month as a benefit to NZ exporters, although they had been encouraged to think (by the Trade Minister) it would be operating by the end of 2022).
Labour backbenchers, particularly those in marginal seats, will now be pinning their hopes on Finance Minister Grant Robertson framing an election-winning budget, despite Hipkins saying it would be a “no-frills” document. Certainly the Reserve Bank which is desperately seeking to squeeze inflation out of the economy won’t want to see the Finance Minister indulging in a big election spend-up that would re-ignite the inflationary fires.
That would not rule out an appropriate and long overdue adjustment to tax brackets, of course — but since National has been calling for that, Robertson might want to be bolder and pull a lot of voters back into the Labour camp with more radical changes.
Revenue Minister David Parker seemed to be laying the groundwork for a wealth tax by calling for an IRD report on the tax paid by NZ’s wealthiest people. It disclosed that the bulk of them paid less than 10%, and this evoked a tide of “tax the rich” cries. How this might be done without a capital gains or wealth tax has not been disclosed by those enthusiasts.
Still, Robertson might still find some ingenious method of boosting revenue flows which would create the surplus from which he could finance significant tax breaks for lower and middle income groups.
But don’t count on it.
The difficulty for Robertson as he worked on his budget is that so many of his earlier pledges – despite the big numbers – have had little effect of either promoting NZ’s prosperity or of lifting living standards.
As Dr Bryce Wilkinson wrote recently:
“Discussions of tax burdens should not be allowed to distract attention from the elephant in the room – an abundance of ill-justified spending. Big government is no guarantee of prosperity, literacy, a well-run health system or quality public infrastructure. Sadly, these days New Zealand exhibits this point”.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
1 comment:
Can anyone confirm what would happen if electors in the Maori electorates decided en masse to vote tactically & split their votes: party vote Labour/ electorate vote Maori Party candidate. We've been assuming that the Maori Party's gain would be at Labour's expense, but it seems to me to be possible that a large Maori Party overhang could give the left wing block a decisive edge, despite the proportions between blocks not favouring the left.
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