Cam Slater: ACT Surges in Latest Poll

The latest Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was released over the weekend and shows ACT surging. National also gained some, while Labour, Greens and NZ First saw slumps in support.

Contrary to the claims of the woke media, it seems that ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill is gaining support.

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National is up 2.6 points from our last poll in November 2023 to 39.6% while Labour drops marginally to 27.9% (-0.4 points). ACT is up significantly to 13.7% (+5.6%) while the Greens are down substantially to 9.0% (-4.8 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.0% (-1.0 points), Te Pati Maori on 2.3% (-1.1% points), and others combined on 2.5%.

This month’s results are compared to the last Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll conducted in November 2023.

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:

Taxpayers’ Union

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As you can see ACT has surged significantly. This poll was taken in the lead up to and immediately after the carry on at Waitangi. It would seem that ACT’s surge is related to the extensive and slanted coverage against their Treaty Principles Bill.

It shows, too, the precarious position Christopher Luxon finds himself in. He (as well as his party) is actually now personally opposed to what appears to be a popular policy with voters.

Luxon’s equivocation, squishiness and eventual capitulation to media pressure against the bill may well see him squeezed hard if ACT continues to surge.

Winston Peters should also take a stock of this poll. His party saw a small decline as, so far, they have avoided showing any support for the bill. That may well turn out to be more costly as the bill gains traction.

This poll serves as a warning to Luxon: that should he carry through with his failure to support the bill then there is a very high probability of a Citizens Initiated Referendum to force the issue onto the ballot paper at the next election, whether he wants it or not.

That shows in the drop in support for Luxon personally:

Christopher Luxon drops 4 points on November 2023 to 29% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. Chris Hipkins is up 1 point to 19%.

David Seymour increases 6 points to 10% while Winston Peters is up 1 point on 6%. Chlöe Swarbrick is also on 6% unchanged from November 2023.

Chris Bishop is on 1.2%, Nicola Willis on 0.8%, Rawiri Waititi on 0.9%, James Shaw on 0.7%, and Leighton Baker on 0.2%.

9% of respondents still indicated that Jacinda Ardern was their preferred Prime Minister.

Taxpayers’ Union

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44% of voters have a favourable view of Christopher Luxon while 33% have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +11% (up 2 points on November 2023).

40% of voters have a favourable view of Chris Hipkins while 35% have an unfavourable view for a net favourability of +4% (-12 points).

David Seymour has a net favourability of -8% (+6 points) while Winston Peters has a score of -22% (+10 points).

This month we also asked respondents about their views on two Green MPs. Chlöe Swarbirck had a net favourability of -10% while Julie Anne Genter had a score of -21%.

Taxpayers’ Union

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This month, we have introduced a new government approval rating where voters are asked to rate how good a job the current government is doing.

16.4% of respondents strongly approved and 23.3% somewhat approved while 18.3% somewhat disapproved and 16.9% strongly disapproved. 21.0% were neutral while 4.1% were unsure.

This gives the Government a net approval rating of +4.5%.

Taxpayers’ Union

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Overall this was a good poll for the ACT Party. There are warnings for both Christopher Luxon and Winston Peters: the Treaty Principles Bill is popular, and right now the National Party looks like it is ceding the debate to the ACT Party.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.