Those are the main conclusions in my research note “Are Flying Kiwis Fleeing?” that the New Zealand Initiative published this week.
Australia is a serious competitor for New Zealand talent. There has been a net loss of New Zealand citizens to Australia in 64 of the 69 years from 1950 to 2018. Provisional Australian statistics for 2023 put the number of New Zealand-born residents of Australia at 598,000.
While the net outflow likely incorporates an element of ‘bounce-back’ from the Covid-induced travel disruption in 2020 and 2021, it has accelerated in recent months. This is something to be watched.
The outflow is a reminder that New Zealand faces real problems in the provision of infrastructure, housing, health, education and employment for New Zealand residents.
The government needs to make significant progress on multiple fronts to improve New Zealanders' prospects and perceptions of their future at home.
The outflow is not a red light because New Zealand attracted net arrivals of 142,900 non-New Zealand citizens in the year to May 2024. The overall net gain of 82,800 migrants in that year added 1.6% to the resident population.
Neither is there a red light from a brain drain perspective. Visa requirements for entry to New Zealand have a skill focus. Immigrants to New Zealand tend to have higher educational qualifications than the native-born population, and they outnumber those leaving. Comparable statistics for outflows are lacking.
Nor does the age distribution of those recently migrating flash a red light. It is consistent with long-term trends.
Even so, the scale of the recent net inflow could be putting pressure on housing and other infrastructure. It makes the government’s measures to free up the supply of housing even more important.
In addition, research has found little evidence of significant negative impacts on employment or wages for native-born New Zealanders due to immigration.
These migration flows highlight the importance of effective action to improve infrastructure, housing, health, education and employment for New Zealand residents.
Those improvements would help attract global skills and capital while retaining some New Zealanders who might otherwise leave.
Dr Bryce Wilkinson is a Senior Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative, Director of Capital Economics, and former Director of the New Zealand Treasury. His articles can be seen HERE. - where this article was sourced.
While the net outflow likely incorporates an element of ‘bounce-back’ from the Covid-induced travel disruption in 2020 and 2021, it has accelerated in recent months. This is something to be watched.
The outflow is a reminder that New Zealand faces real problems in the provision of infrastructure, housing, health, education and employment for New Zealand residents.
The government needs to make significant progress on multiple fronts to improve New Zealanders' prospects and perceptions of their future at home.
The outflow is not a red light because New Zealand attracted net arrivals of 142,900 non-New Zealand citizens in the year to May 2024. The overall net gain of 82,800 migrants in that year added 1.6% to the resident population.
Neither is there a red light from a brain drain perspective. Visa requirements for entry to New Zealand have a skill focus. Immigrants to New Zealand tend to have higher educational qualifications than the native-born population, and they outnumber those leaving. Comparable statistics for outflows are lacking.
Nor does the age distribution of those recently migrating flash a red light. It is consistent with long-term trends.
Even so, the scale of the recent net inflow could be putting pressure on housing and other infrastructure. It makes the government’s measures to free up the supply of housing even more important.
In addition, research has found little evidence of significant negative impacts on employment or wages for native-born New Zealanders due to immigration.
These migration flows highlight the importance of effective action to improve infrastructure, housing, health, education and employment for New Zealand residents.
Those improvements would help attract global skills and capital while retaining some New Zealanders who might otherwise leave.
Dr Bryce Wilkinson is a Senior Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative, Director of Capital Economics, and former Director of the New Zealand Treasury. His articles can be seen HERE. - where this article was sourced.
5 comments:
Quite a few NZers who emigrate to Australia come back to NZ (see e.g. "Record numbers of Kiwis have come back from Australia to live...", Herald 2023). The grass is always greener on the other wide of the fence (or in this instance, the ditch) but the reality is all too often very different. Incomes are higher but so are living costs. There is not one Australia but there are 8, and relocating from one state to another is not as simple a matter as relocating in NZ owing to different state set-ups regarding e.g. Super. Aussie is becoming more like the US with regard to e.g. health care provision and that may not suit everyone. There are many nasties that can bite or sting and many can cause death (I'll never forget a friend in Qld showing us around her new place but telling us we couldn't go into her garden as it was infested with deadly King Brown snakes...... charming). After living there for 2 years in the 80s I decided Aussie is a big sand island inhabited by a tribe of underarm bowlers with an inflated opinion of themselves and their country.
Each to their own. Having lived in Aus for 17 years and presently visiting NZ I am left with the impression I am visiting an absurdly expensive, immature, dumbed down little country with an extraordinary inflated sense of ego and global significance. The News is unintelligible full of gibberish. Grocery prices are through the roof. Politics are as manifestly sordid as those of the US. Violence is an embedded norm in social behaviour.
I enjoy visiting family but need to reassure them that there is a world outside the inverted sense of reality in which NZ summersaults.
Fortunately the weather has been good for my visit.
'Immigrants to New Zealand tend to have higher educational qualifications' - i highly doubt this statement. when you look at green list 1/2 evolved over the last year or so, this claim doesn't pass the sniff-test. sure, they may be skilled (drivers, plumbers and bike mechanics certainly are), but i wonder if they would be highly educated.
look around for the migrant exploitation cases reported in the last few years & every scenario talks about a 'skilled' worker, with or without higher education, with or without english speaking skills, working for someone with the same ethnicity, getting screwed to the point of deportation and expecting a bailout by the taxpayer. would that be 'typical' of people who are highly educated?
there's also an ambiguous definition of 'migrant' population - depending on what the department wants to prove. are visitors included? i hope not, but they are in the census! are people on student visa included? i think so, although it is unclear how many will apply for post-study work visa or slip into the grey economy or return home. are people on work visa included? i hope so, as this is a predictable leading indicator of resident visa application. if migrant implies resident visa only, the spike is simply an impact of stop-work action during covid, which has balanced out. isn't the stats department responsible to provide this level of detail considering the challenges in interpretation due to covid-blip?
the exodus from NZ (to AU or elsewhere) also needs more scrutiny. how many are 'real' kiwis? how many are residents who waited to get citizenship & moved to AU (a back-door strategy used by many)? how many were on work visa or resident visa who bailed out when they realised that nz has no respect for 'bill of rights' and couldn't understand the 'new language' anymore?
unfortunately the data & report only leads to more questions instead of answers :(
Really Barend you only lived there for 2 years! I spent most of my 20's there and it set me up in terms of owning assets for the rest of my life. My partner was a FIFO worker in Aussie and SE Asia for nearly 40 years . Aussie superannuation( self managed and salary sacrifice) is simply superior to NZ's system. All our offspring live and work there one has become a citizen. The eldest recently returned to live and work there as NZ frankly doesn't want multiskilled educated workers , he is presently in the Northern Territory. He says it is Aussie's most expensive state. Still 30% cheaper than Northland supermarkets though. I have just been to Victoria and could buy the same groceries as here for at least 40% less .A few king browns are only in residence for a certain time of the year and cats and dogs deter snakes. My cat survived several snake bites over there.
Just another piece of propaganda pushing high immigration. Yet scream if tax goes up to pay for the infrastructure that has been ignored for so long.
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