New Zealand nonsense (two). Voting by race: Unequal Maori seats
Seats in the New Zealand Parliament are defined by race; 7 of the 72 electoral seats are Maori seats. This satisfies the first tenets of racism, a belief in race and separation of people by race in government.[1] The resultant unequal representation, with far fewer votes required for each Maori Member of Parliament, is undermining a basic tenet of democracy – equality of votes.
When I was analysing statistics through the 1980s and 1990s, I worked with a variety of measures of one particular group, Maori. Each related to actual persons: sole Maori who ticked only the Maori box on the census form, ethnic Maori who ticked that and perhaps some other box, numbers reported by police and health workers based on their judgement or in answer to a question, and so on. There were many, differing measures, but I understood how each was gathered; there is no such clarity here.
A several-step process is followed to determine the number of these Maori seats. The calculations are based on total population numbers (all ages) rather than those of voting age or on numbers of registered voters (of Maori on the Maori roll). Given the more youthful Maori population, this introduces a bias in favour of Maori over-representation.
“We used the following steps for each record (whether sourced from 2018 Census response or admin enumeration (Stats NZ, 2019b), until we obtained a Yes or No for Maori descent:
1. Start with the respondent’s actual response.”[2] This is like the old “ethnic Maori” count, and is 625,600.
“2. If response for Maori descent is not ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ use: a. 2013 Census as first priority, and b. DIA birth records as second priority.” This introduces a further 134,300 ‘Maori’ to the count. Nowhere is there any opportunity for choice, where a person may state whether they have any significant Maori identity. The State has defined your ethnicity.
“3. If response for Maori descent is still not ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, use ‘within household donor’ imputation. Find the person of closest age in the usual residence and copy their Maori descent response as long as the response is a Yes or No value.” It seems that if you live with a Maori, you are held to be a Maori. This introduces a further 56,600 ‘Maori’.
“4. If response for Maori descent is still not ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, use 2018 Census iwi responses. If there is a valid iwi response in 2018 Census then set Maori descent to Yes. If Maori descent remains as missing or as Don’t Know, Refused to Answer, Response Unidentifiable, Response Outside Scope, or Not Stated then CANCEIS (the CANadian Census Edit and Imputation System) donor imputation was used to set a value of Yes or No.”
These last steps introduce a further 80,000 ‘Maori’. Do you understand what they are doing, and why? I don’t.
The total “Maori descent electoral population” is then 896,600. The number of these ‘Maori’ has been artificially increased by 43%, from 16.4% to 19.1% of the New Zealand population.
The next step in determining the number of Maori seats is to calculate the “Maori electoral population (MEP)”, by multiplying “the 2018 Census Maori descent usually resident population count” (which is the “Maori descent electoral population” noted above) by “the proportion of enrolled Maori descent electors who choose the Maori electoral roll.”
There is a recognition here that this will take into consideration those who are not of an age to vote: “This means that the MEP includes people who are not enrolled on the electoral roll (such as children)”[3], which inflates Maori numbers due to their more youthful population.
The MEP is then 472,397. Take care to not be confused by the very similar words used here (I was): the “Maori descent electoral population” (also known as the “Census Maori descent usually resident population count”) is very different from the “Maori electoral population”. If clarity had been intended, there would have been a better choice of labelling words. None of these is a count of actual people, a real population of individuals – apart from that first count of respondents to a census question answering to a question concerning ethnicity.
The number of seats is then based on a South Island quota to suggest that should be a population of 67,582 for each seat, and thus 7.23 Maori seats, rounded off to 7 Maori seats. The suggestion here that there is a slightly greater population for each Maori seat than for general seats is false, being based on that considerably inflated MEP Maori population calculation, not on real people.
The result in voting power is a considerable inequality. In the 2023 elections there were 39,398 valid votes per general electorate and 25,974 valid votes per Maori general electorate.[4] The ratio is 1.52, and each Maori vote has a 52% greater value than a non-Maori vote. That discrepancy is largely the consequence of the deliberate and forced set of calculations summarised above. This is the destruction of true democracy, where all votes must be of equal value.
The further requirements in my definition of racism have been satisfied: counting, and exaggerating, race-based numbers, and providing special, extra powers to the chosen race.
There is never any thought of checking the validity of this process. The Government may claim that: “There are approximately equal electoral populations in each Maori and general electoral district.” But this is an artificial Maori population, numbers generated through convoluted calculations and not real people – more nonsense creating race-based inequality. If votes were of equal value with equal electoral populations, there would be five Maori MPs elected by race (the ratio of 4.6, rounded up), not seven.
Dr John Robinson is a research scientist, who has investigated a variety of topics, including the social statistics of Maori. His recognition of fundamental flaws in the interpretation of nineteenth century Maori demographics led him to consider the history of those times in several books.
[1] Robinson J. New Zealand nonsense (one). Sovereignty and defining Maori. The first note in this series.
[2] NZ Govt., “Deriving the 2018 Maori descent electoral population”, https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/deriving-the-2018-maori-descent-electoral-populaton.
[3] NZ Govt., “The mathematics of electorate allocation in New Zealand based on the outcome of the 2018 Census and Māori Electoral Option 2018”, https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/the-mathematics-of-electorate-allocation-in-new-zealand-based-on-the-outcome-of-the-2018-census-and-maori-electoral-option-2018/#:~:text=The%20Electoral%20Act%201993%20arose,the%20separate%20M%C4%81ori%20electoral%20roll.
[4] NZ Govt., “Electorate Candidate Votes and Turnout by Electorate”, https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2023/statistics/candidate-votes-and-turnout-by-electorate.html
7 comments:
Walter Shewhart, Dr W. Edwards Deming, et al would've fallen over in despair at the sheer stupidity. Donald J. Wheeler would have put it down to that wonderful phrase that he coined "numerical naivete" ... and that would be kind! The process utilized to determine the Maori 'numbers' is basically fraudulent and that aside, there should be absolutely no call for calculating it in the first place. We are one people, there is no need under MMP for the divisive concept of Maori specific seats and by not removing them, John Key did this Country so much damage he should be in the stocks, not whispering in Luxon's ear.
The STATE has been on a pre planned agenda of deliberate destruction of our once happy go lucky culture via division, racism and apartheid since the 70's.
The State is manipulating us via disingenuous politicians and it's controlled "mockingbird media" to accept this as "progress".
The STATE is the enemy of we the people.
With no disrespect to Dr Robinson's vocation, his piece reminds me of Mark Twain's famous comment, which may or may not have originated with Disraeli, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The obvious solution is to determine eligibility for inclusion on the Maori Roll by a simple genetic test. But but that's bound to raise massive protests because it would inevitably lead to many incumbents being removed from the Roll. So abolish the Maori seats. Problem solved. They were only created to benefit Maori men at a time when the vote was limited to property owners, and now we have universal adult franchise there's no logical reason to retain them.
An interesting issue you raise Dr Robinson, and which reminded me also of the saying attributed to Disraeli: “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
This apparent distortion of the numbers not only applies on a national level but also permeates our Local Authority/Council representations – so perhaps it’s also a timely comment given that the Government has recently changed to the Local Electoral Act 2001 back to having permitting referenda on Maori Wards.
If anyone is interested, have a look at the aforementioned Act, with one of its stated “principles” being the “fair and effective representation for individuals and communities”.
Then under the “Interpretation” section look at the difference in the definitions of “the estimated general electoral population” in comparison to “the estimated general Maori electoral population”. Their definitions and determinations are quite different (although the former does rely on the latter) and, in a purportedly democratic world where equality should be paramount, one must surely wonder why this is so?
As Dr Robinson mentions, the latter of the above involves a multi-step calculation that appears to produce a biased outcome, or most certainly one that is something other than produced by a directly comparable basis and challenges the democratic equivalence concept of ‘one person, one vote’.
That aside, when it comes to Local Authority Maori Wards, which are typically only one in number per electoral authority, the vast majority will find that the distortion of that democratic equivalence in realty will be even more marked. As in the recently headlined spat in Kaipara, where the current elected Maori Ward Councillor received 48% less votes than the next lowest polling Councillor, or some 70% less than the average of the other elected Councillors.
So much for equality (instigated by our politicians), and another very good reason why those rights to a referendum should prevail.
Numbers are not the issue, are they? It would all be so simple if that were the case. There is no reason in any of it. Nor has any 'culture' a moral ascendancy. Maori found these islands - and so did Europeans. A few thousand Maori could not possibly 'own' all that land, and most of them rushed to do whatever they could to acquire the benefits of 'civilisation'. I wish we could halt all this agonising. Maori are almost entirely interbred, genetically and culturally, most are hugely ignorant of their history, and silly woke European New Zealanders continually fall over backwards to make amends for what? Basically, its embarassing!
Wow why is everything we read so much worse than we think. ...the clear thing is that this should make more urgent the abolition of the maori seats ...it is corrupt racism.....please strike a blow for democracy and abolish these racist seats.....as has been recommended many times
Wow why is everything we read so much worse than we think. ...the clear thing is that this should make more urgent the abolition of the maori seats ...it is corrupt racism.....please strike a blow for democracy and abolish these racist seats.....as has been recommended many times
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