The weeks following Donald Trump’s election win have seen numerous mainstream and blog commentaries on the possible consequences of Donald Trump’s Presidential win. Existential despair from the left, and “Thank God we can now change direction” from the right.
A common observation from conservative commentators is that voters reacted to the capture of the Democrats by critical social justice agendas and identity politics, and the Democrats’ failure to read the mood of the majority. We saw something similar with the demise of the Ardern-Hipkins government In New Zealand in October 2023.
Trump’s nominations for senior roles in his government are not necessarily reassuring, and it is not the object of this article to discuss his personal character. However, the extreme negative reactions to his victory are owed in part to conditioning by the mainstream media, who have spared no effort to tell us that Trump as President will bring about the end of the world, either through war or cataclysmic climate change.
But, the education system has played a major part. The learned fragility of university staff and students in the wake of the election was belief-defying tragi-comedy – Harvard, UPenn, and Columbia all cancelled lectures to allow students to deal with their emotions as they struggled to cope [1]. None of this reaction surprises. Niall Ferguson, in his “After the Treason of the Intellectuals” address [2] at the new University of Austin, Texas, noted that in the USA today 90% of university staff lean to the political left, and years of promulgation of identity politics in academia have delivered a new generation of students lacking resilience and indoctrinated to believe that any conservative government could only be evil.
Pushing Back on DEI Agendas in Academia
Donald Trump has never been seen as a man of science, but ironically his election may benefit hard science research, as his team is considering defunding universities that are too focused on “woke” research and too heavily focused on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) agendas [3]. He is also looking to get rid of “wokeness” and “left wing indoctrination” in schools [4]. A consequence of such actions is that we will see a shift in priorities in science research funding in the USA, and likely in other Western countries.
Over the past 20 years, the increasing force of diversity equity and inclusion (DEI) agendas and funding of projects based on traditional knowledge and “other ways of knowing” have diluted the focus on, and grant-winning power of, hard science research in physics, chemistry, biology and engineering, particularly those projects where DEI requirements were not, or could not be, meaningfully addressed.
In the USA prior to the Presidential election, the green shoots of reaction against critical social justice (CSJ) and DEI ideology were visible, with some universities removing DEI criteria from hiring policies, for example. Even before Trump’s inauguration, the pushback on identity politics in the education and research sectors had gathered momentum. There is now a substantial Republican move to roll back DEI agendas in universities and close their DEI offices [5].
If a consequence of Trump’s election is a renewed focus on merit in hard science, and such a shift is picked up in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK, this will be a massive benefit.
The Example of Climate Science
To take one contentious area as an example, Trump has stated that he is backing the oil and gas industry, and new exploration. The climate agenda of the UN, as promoted in the science view of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is that “the science is settled” regarding climate change and that the world must take extremely urgent action to achieve carbon Net Zero.
Against this view, we know that carbon dioxide (CO2) is necessary for plant life and, without it, human life on Earth would not be viable. CO2 concentrations currently sit at levels that are at close to historic lows in geological time, although they have also increased from ~320ppm to around 425ppm over the last 60 years. Regreening of the planet over the past 35 years, and new science findings on plant and oceanic absorption of CO2 [6, 7] being higher than assumed in climate modelling, provide reason for less anxiety about CO2 levels.
Moreover, non-disputed computer modelling exercises around the atmospheric temperature sensitivity to CO2 [8, 9] show that a doubling in present atmospheric CO2 levels to 840 ppm would result in a temperature increase of just 0.5°C. This is just one-sixth of even the most optimistic IPCC scenario of 3°C. These are reasons to reconsider the wisdom of the Net Zero 2050 goal, but not a reason to avoid prudent management of CO2 levels into the future.
Methane may be a strong greenhouse gas, but it has a very short half-life in the atmosphere, and the major and critical role of water vapour as a greenhouse gas needs ongoing research. Even without the debate around CO2, these alone should steer us away from treating climate science as “settled”. For a start, the New Zealand Government should not enact climate change adaptation policies that may turn out to be ill-conceived and damage our economy, while making a vanishingly small and globally inconsequential impact on any climate change trend.
This example is not presented as climate change scepticism, but rather as a call for open minds on contentious matters of science. It is possible that a Trump government may result in a healthier new debate on science matters, and more balanced discussion that counters dominant narratives and media bias. We need to see once again the publication and discussion of what have been considered contrarian views and suppressed in the media and in research journals, for example around climate change, biological sex versus gender identity, or the sanctity and standing of indigenous/traditional knowledge versus modern science.
Refocusing on Excellence in New Zealand Science
In this context, last week’s announcement by Science, Innovation and Technology Minister, Judith Collins, of the cessation of research funding for Humanities and the Social Sciences through the Royal Society Te Aparangi Marsden Fund has been greeted with outrage and/or grieving responses from researchers and university Vice Chancellors. Future funding for Humanities and the Social Sciences should be made available from an appropriate government agency and budget, but the Minister’s move was entirely justified in the face of excessive capture of this funding by projects where value to our society was highly questionable, and which were driven by CSJ/DEI ideology and in some cases decolonisation agendas - as cited in the examples given by Chris Lynch in his blunt commentary on the Minister’s announcement [10].
Further refinement of
the Coalition Government’s Science funding policy is needed. Sir Peter
Gluckman’s Science System Advisory Group should recommend to Government research
funding categories which ensure that fundamental curiosity-driven science
research is still properly funded alongside mission-led research which helps drive
economic development in the nearer term, together with funding for technology
commercialisation.
Right now, the announcement of change to New Zealand’s science research funding by Judith Collins reflects the hardening of attitudes in the USA. It is vital that we see a renewed focus on science research excellence, and a move away from DEI objectives that have prioritised equity ahead of merit to the detriment of some of New Zealand’s high value and internationally esteemed research.
John Raine is an Emeritus Professor of Engineering and has formerly held positions as Pro Vice Chancellor (Research and Innovation) at AUT, Deputy Vice Chancellor (Albany and International) at Massey University, and Pro Vice Chancellor (Enterprise and International) at University of Canterbury. He has had a long-term involvement in NZ’s innovation system and chaired the Government’s Powering Innovation Review in 2011.
References
1. Paul Sacca,
“Classes canceled at Harvard, Penn, Columbia over Trump win: 'As a queer,
immigrant woman of color, I cannot go about my day'. ”, Blazemedia, 8th
November, 2024 https://www.theblaze.com/news/classes-canceled-harvard-penn-columbia-trump-election
2.
Niall Ferguson, “After The Treason of the
Intellectuals”, Address given at the University of Austin, Texas, March 2024.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?view=detail&q=Niall+Fegruson+after+the+treason+of+thpe+intellecutals&mid=327B4B752F18285F4029327B4B752F18285F4029&FORM=VIRE
3.
Gustaf Kilander “Trump’s team weighs
withholding massive research grants from universities that are too ‘woke’:
Report”, The Independent, U.K., 6th December 2024
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-research-grants-woke-b2660318.html
4.
U.S. News, “Trump Wants to End 'Wokeness' in
Education. He Has Vowed to Use Federal Money as Leverage, 15th
November 2024.”
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2024-11-15/trump-wants-to-end-wokeness-in-education-he-has-vowed-to-use-federal-money-as-leverage\
5.
Laura Spitalniak, “A look at DEI eliminations
at colleges across the US”, Higher Ed Dive, 12th September 2024.
https://www.highereddive.com/news/dei-eliminations-cuts-offices-colleges-texas-florida-kentucky-alabama/727414/
6.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, “Plant CO2 uptake rises by
nearly one third in new global estimates”, Science Daily, 21st October 2024
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/10/241021145729.htm
7.
Daniel J. Ford, Jamie D. Shutler, Javier Blanco-Sacristán, Sophie Corrigan, Thomas G. Bell, Mingxi Yang, Vassilis Kitidis, Philip D. Nightingale, Ian Brown, Werenfrid Wimmer, David K. Woolf, Tânia Casal, Craig Donlon, Gavin H. Tilstone & Ian Ashton, “Enhanced ocean CO2 uptake due to
near-surface temperature gradients, Nature Geoscience, volume 17, pages1135–1140, 2024
8.
Dieter Schildknecht, "Saturation of the
infrared absorption by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere"., Journal of
Modern Physics B, Vol. 34, No. 30, 2050293, 6 August 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00708
9.
C. David Coe, Walter Fabinski and Gerhard
Wiegleb, “The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium
Earth Temperatures”. The International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2021, pp. 29-40. 23 August 2021. www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/journal/paperinfo?journalid=298&doi=10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
10. Chris
Lynch, Opinion: “Reimagining” the Marsden Fund back to science”, Christchurch’s
Newsroom, 7th December 2024.
https://www.chrislynchmedia.com/news-items/opinion-reimagining-the-marsden-fund-back-to-science
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