Leading accident investigators are bewildered by the NZ Government's Press Conference (by Defense Minister Collins & Naval Command) which gave the world's media the headline, "NZ Navy: Human error caused Manawanui sinking". The top people in this line of business repeatedly state such accidents are caused by many factors that combine to form a "perfect storm". Trying to argue there's one factor, like human error, is always misplaced.
On that note, a US global maritime expert called Sal Mercogliano, who runs a YouTube Channel called "What's Going on with Shipping?" with 340,000 subscribers, has commented on the sinking of NZ's third largest navy ship, The Manawanui. Sal "has degrees in Military & Naval History, Maritime History & Nautical Archaeology, & Marine Transportation. He's a former merchant mariner & teaches courses in maritime history, security and industry policy". His YouTube video is below. You've got to like Sal. Sal says, "[The Manawanui] was a commercial ship [used in oil exploration from Norway]. I've heard repeatedly from sources that NZ did not pay the full amount of money in the conversion to get that dynamic positioning system installed in it. This track line [where the ship was supposedly surveying] could have been put into the system and the ship would have automatically run the track [turns included]. That did not appear to happen. I think there's a big issue here on whether or not the auto-pilot system on this vessel was 100%".
Jacinda Ardern is the "Sponsor" of Sunken Manawanui. It was bought by her government in 2018. According to Sal, it was converted on the cheap. He appears to agree with what Ardern's Defense Minister (at the time of the purchase) told Radio NZ after the sinking: "My ministerial team purchased the vessel from Norway, used for oil exploration, & refitted it, getting it into service in 11 months .. it astonished our partners, the audacity that we would buy a commercial vessel of that type & press it into military service. We bought Manawanui knowing she was not a war ship, she's a commercial operation... but with that comes the risk that commercial vessels don't have the same level of redundancy in their systems or design that warships do - you can't seal off compartments, create water tight compartments & keep the vessel afloat so it can be towed, salvaged & repaired. Unfortunately with commercial vessel of this type, you know that in a worst case situation you're going to have an issue .."
So our Former Defense Minister implies that, had Manawanui been up to proper naval standards, it could've well stayed afloat & been salvaged. How convenient of the NZ Navy & Government to throw its crew overboard with the headline about "human error". Maybe the most important "human error" arose out of a Cabinet Decision that former PMs Ardern and Hipkins made? Maybe they're the ones who should face disciplinary action for sending sailors to sea in a ship that was not fit for task. Maybe they'd like to confirm or deny Sal's line that, "I've heard repeatedly from sources that NZ did not pay the full amount of money in the conversion to get that dynamic positioning system installed in it".
By the way, unusually for a Navy Ship, our mate Sal notes that the Manawanui didn't have a rudder. Instead it turned by changing the direction of its propellers, called "Azipods" (see the photo below). Seat Salt Sal reckons that when the ship started heading to land, the crew spun the control dial which they thought had turned the Azipods 180 degrees to reverse course, and applied thrust. But because the ship was on auto-pilot, the Azipods didn't turn 180 degrees, and instead powered the ship toward the reef, but now at higher speed. Our mate Sal can't work out why the crew didn't just turn the thrust to zero. I suppose Ardern & Hipkins aren't available for comment - Ardern's busy burning those air miles, and Hipkins is busy designing his capital-gains-tax-inspired return to power. Samoa's environment seems to be of little importance to them, aside from talking about global warming and rising sea-levels in the Pacific at the UN, as their budget ship lies leaking oil and diesel underwater.
Sources:
https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping
https://youtu.be/BNx5V4GmSdE?si=v0ZBjLpo4mpkF3Yt
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/530004/it-s-my-ship-and-i-m-gutted-former-minister-ron-mark-on-manawanui-sinking
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.
Jacinda Ardern is the "Sponsor" of Sunken Manawanui. It was bought by her government in 2018. According to Sal, it was converted on the cheap. He appears to agree with what Ardern's Defense Minister (at the time of the purchase) told Radio NZ after the sinking: "My ministerial team purchased the vessel from Norway, used for oil exploration, & refitted it, getting it into service in 11 months .. it astonished our partners, the audacity that we would buy a commercial vessel of that type & press it into military service. We bought Manawanui knowing she was not a war ship, she's a commercial operation... but with that comes the risk that commercial vessels don't have the same level of redundancy in their systems or design that warships do - you can't seal off compartments, create water tight compartments & keep the vessel afloat so it can be towed, salvaged & repaired. Unfortunately with commercial vessel of this type, you know that in a worst case situation you're going to have an issue .."
So our Former Defense Minister implies that, had Manawanui been up to proper naval standards, it could've well stayed afloat & been salvaged. How convenient of the NZ Navy & Government to throw its crew overboard with the headline about "human error". Maybe the most important "human error" arose out of a Cabinet Decision that former PMs Ardern and Hipkins made? Maybe they're the ones who should face disciplinary action for sending sailors to sea in a ship that was not fit for task. Maybe they'd like to confirm or deny Sal's line that, "I've heard repeatedly from sources that NZ did not pay the full amount of money in the conversion to get that dynamic positioning system installed in it".
By the way, unusually for a Navy Ship, our mate Sal notes that the Manawanui didn't have a rudder. Instead it turned by changing the direction of its propellers, called "Azipods" (see the photo below). Seat Salt Sal reckons that when the ship started heading to land, the crew spun the control dial which they thought had turned the Azipods 180 degrees to reverse course, and applied thrust. But because the ship was on auto-pilot, the Azipods didn't turn 180 degrees, and instead powered the ship toward the reef, but now at higher speed. Our mate Sal can't work out why the crew didn't just turn the thrust to zero. I suppose Ardern & Hipkins aren't available for comment - Ardern's busy burning those air miles, and Hipkins is busy designing his capital-gains-tax-inspired return to power. Samoa's environment seems to be of little importance to them, aside from talking about global warming and rising sea-levels in the Pacific at the UN, as their budget ship lies leaking oil and diesel underwater.
Sources:
https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping
https://youtu.be/BNx5V4GmSdE?si=v0ZBjLpo4mpkF3Yt
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/530004/it-s-my-ship-and-i-m-gutted-former-minister-ron-mark-on-manawanui-sinking
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi from where this article was sourced.
10 comments:
Blame Ardern and Ron Marks...
Like all things automatic and computerised, they require input.....simply garbage in garbage out.
I guess the same thing can be said about Ardern and Hipkins.....we got garbage in and then finally got the barbage out.
The problem for New Zealand is that the decay and stench left behind from the garbage has settled in the walls, the floor and the ceiling......
As an engineer involved in the development of the Collins Class submarine Integrated Ship Control Monitoring & Management System back in the 90's, I am pretty sure that auto functions disengaged in a number of circumstances. I was specifically involved in software quality and there is something known as the bum test. Essentially, if a bum hits a keyboard (aka something unexpected happens), how will the system react? We were very particular about fully testing any changes made to the system but what used to be a high integrity process has likely been eroded over time, particularly as anyone can now knock up an app. We were always up against politicians and other who wanted speed over integrity, usually with so called cost savings in mind. What cost here with the sinking of this ship?
Based on this article, Collins cover-up speech on the matter should have have said
The ship was a cheap knock off thanks to Hipkins and Adern's ineptitude
The crew was poorly trained thanks to the high ranking officer to my right
All naval crew will henceforth get top class training or heads at the top are going to roll
In future we will buy fit for purpose vessels or none at all
Ah, Dame Jacinda Ardern .... the giving never stops, does it. What will be the next gift from her that we did not know about?
Well, the Navy is supposed to know how to run a ship, and that surely is, not aground!
Despite the patent negligence and incompetence, how come the ship caught fire and sunk, when it was reported in the recent press conference that initially after the grounding "...no flooding or damage was detected inside the ship..." and yet its stability was significantly compromised to the point the ship had to be abandoned minutes later? Maybe those looking for damage were blind?
And here we have a Navy ship motoring along relatively close to and directly at an isiand which they knew had reefs, but no-one seems to have been watching out for those reefs, land forms or (also importantly), other vessels, and no-one on the bridge seems to have known that the autopilot was engaged, much less how to immediately disengage it! These people are paid to have the skills and knowledge to operate these ships and there should surely be someone capable of doing that manually, on the bridge 24/7. For the Navy to just rely on an auto-pilot in such a location is more than a disgrace.
It should be remembered that this was not a combat ship. It was doing precisely what it was designed to do, and that was surveying. If it didn't have a dynamic positioning system, so what? You don't sail her as if she did.
We can go on and on about the automatic systems but the fact remains that they should have been switched off. The fact remains that an inexperienced person was in charge, and her gender and sexual orientation had a role in that (being previously a weapons officer is not experience that's helpful captaining a survey ship), and the government had got rid of all the experienced pale stale males who should have been there to teach and mentor her.
I see a Murphy's Law here: "The fault will never be placed if more than one person is involved".
Kevan
All good, but it is not a warship, it is a survey ship. Setting up the autopilot to follow the box would be easy and normal. The drives allow for precise positioning, something it would have done in its previous life as a support vessel.
The whole event shows a vessel that is badly run. Crew having no real idea on what, or why, they perform their jobs. There should be a lot of people losing any possible career path. Those at the top should be losing it all.
Makes sense, what happens when you touch the brake pedal in your car when the cruise control is on - yup, it drops out. Maybe it was the son of HAL on the ship saying: " "This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it" while charging on regardless ...
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