Pages

Sunday, January 19, 2025

Duggan Flanakin: Can the U.S. retake the lead in new nuclear energy?


As of 2023, nearly one-quarter of the world’s nuclear reactors generating electricity were in the United States, which also boasts over a quarter of worldwide generation capacity and over 30% of actual nuclear electricity generation. But the average age of the 92 U.S. operational nuclear reactors, the world’s third oldest fleet, was 41.6 years. The Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia are the only new U.S. reactors in the past 40 years.

Meanwhile, China has been increasing its nuclear reactor fleet from 55 to 80, with more in the planning stages. India, too, is adding 11 new reactors to its existing fleet of 23. France, Russia, and South Korea are building more new reactors than the U.S., as are several smaller nations. But U.S. nuclear energy development is hamstrung by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s archaic rules that slow permitting and drive up development costs.

Global Energy Monitor says that China has expanded its nuclear power capacity at the fastest rate of any country in the 21st Century and will soon overtake France to house the world’s second largest nuclear power plant fleet. Nearly half of nuclear powerplant construction is in China, where the government has promoted nuclear power to shore up baseload capacity.

On the other hand, China already has more canceled nuclear capacity than any other country because of its pivot away from inland nuclear power plants. China is also building massive amounts of wind and solar energy capacity that may result in further nuclear plant cancellations, says Global Energy Monitor.

China is also a major player in developing and deploying Generation III and Generation IV reactors, though most Chinese nuclear facilities are Generation II, which lack some of the safety design elements in the newer reactors. Four Chinese nuclear units rely on the Westinghouse AP1000 Gen III reactor, but China has also deployed its own Hualong One Gen III reactor at four nuclear units. Another 13 are under construction in China, plus two more in Pakistan and one potentially in Argentina that are using the Hualong One design.

The Chinese also sport the world’s first Gen IV nuclear power plant, which relies on two small reactors that drive one steam turbine with an overall output capacity of 211 MW. These small modular reactors (SMRs), with a potential scaled-up version with a capacity of 650 MW, are still in pilot testing in the U.S. NuScale’s advanced light-water SMR was given the green light by the NRC in 2023 but is not expected to become operational until 2029.

Russian sustainability envoy Boris Titov says that his country intends to maintain its position as “one of the biggest builders of new nuclear plants in the world.” Russia is currently in development or construction of new nuclear power plants in China, India, Iran, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey because “we need a lot of energy.”

While Russia only produces about 5% of mined uranium (Kazakhstan produces more than 40%, followed by Canada, Australia, and Namibia [collectively another 35%]), it produces about a third of the 2020 supply of uranium hexafluoride and today has about 43% of global enrichment capacity compared to just 7% for the U.S. European nations collectively have another third, and China is rapidly increasing its current 16% share.

France, which relies on nuclear energy for nearly two-thirds of its electric power, has recently decided to augment its nuclear fleet after a period of self-doubt. After 12 years of delays and challenges, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor began generating power in December. The European pressurized reactor (EPR), the most powerful unit in France, and one of only four worldwide, can produce about 1,600 MW of electricity, enough to power 2 million homes.

The French reactor suffered similar problems to Georgia’s Vogtle units, as technical setbacks and other issues caused the cost of the project to skyrocket from the original estimate of 3.3 billion euros to 13.2 billion euros. But France is undeterred, with five more new units in the planning stages and another eight under consideration. A major concern is replacing older reactors scheduled for decommissioning in the near future.

Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India, with 21 reactors at seven power plants and an installed capacity of 5,780 MW. Six more reactors under construction will add another 4,300 MW of capacity, but India’s goal is to achieve 63,000 MW of nuclear energy capacity by 2032.

India’s program, operated by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited, focuses on indigenous reactors and global collaboration, including agreements with France and Russia for reactor technology. India is also developing its own Bharat small reactors, a shift from traditional large-scale plants, with private sector partnerships driving innovation.

In the U.S., now that Vogtle Units 3 and 4 are operational, there is not a single new full-sized nuclear power plant under construction, but there are some signs of progress in other areas, including the afore-mentioned NuScale SMR.

Last November, the Department of Energy doled out $3 million to Westinghouse for its eVinci microreactor and $2 million to Radiant Industries for its Kaleidos microreactor. The funding is aimed at helping the companies prepare for testing at DOE”s Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME). The nation’s first microreactor testbed is under construction at Idaho National Laboratory, with completion expected by 2026.

The eVinci and Kaleidos microreactors both run on uranium-based tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles, which cannot melt inside a high-temperature reactor. Kaleidos uses a helium gas coolant, while eVinci relies on a passive heat pipe system. These 50 MW or smaller reactors may be best suited for microgrids or off-grid rural sites, military bases, mining operations, and even lunar installations.

Upon federal approval, Westinghouse has plans to assemble these portable eVinci units at its Pennsylvania facility and ship them to customers in containers. Several other private companies are also developing microreactor designs, with similar goals for the not-too-distant future. Both Westinghouse and Radiant hope their designs will secure NRC licenses by 2030.

In a novel approach to nuclear energy, U.S.-based Deep Fission has entered into a strategic partnership with Australia’s Endeavour Energy to build small modular reactors and bury them a mile underground so as to eliminate the need for massive concrete structures used to shield above-ground reactors. Their hope is to have the first of these reactors, needed to power Endeavour’s Edged data centers, operational by 2029.

That said, both SMR and microreactor permitting in the U.S. are years behind that in other nations.

U.S.-based nuclear energy companies are not the only ones to lament that the U.S. nuclear energy permitting system, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in particular, is the primary obstacle to faster deployment of both SMR and microreactor technologies today just as the system has thwarted development of large-scale (traditional) reactors, none of which emit hydrocarbons and none of which run only intermittently.

Hopefully, the second Trump Administration will act to change that calculus.

Duggan Flanakin is a Senior Policy Analyst with the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow. This article was first published HERE

No comments: