Dr Oliver Hartwich: Germany silent on suspected Russian drone attack to avoid boosting far right

Drones near airports, at least in New Zealand, are usually a nuisance rather than a threat. They are often flown by careless amateurs who have not read the rules.

What happened at Leipzig airport last Tuesday night was different. A bus driver at the East German airport noticed something hovering just above the southern runway, beside a Ukrainian cargo aircraft. He kicked it out of the air. Then he called security, and the federal police sent a robot. It found a tin can fixed to the drone with a detonator seated in its base.

Dave Patterson: Are the Baltic States Ripe for a Russian Invasion?

Poland and the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia believe they are the targets of Russian hybrid warfare. Russia is, in fact, at war with these countries, each of which has an eastern border ripe for an invasion similar to that which took place in April 2014 in the Ukrainian Donbas region and Crimea. Prior to the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Kremlin troops in February 2022, Russia carried out a campaign of disinformation, sabotaging Ukrainian infrastructure and cyberattack operations.

DTNZ: Trump wants Russia and China on ‘Board of Peace’

Moscow has said it is open to the idea, while Beijing has declined to join, citing commitment to the UN-centered international system.

US President Donald Trump has said he would “love” to see Russia and China join his ‘Board of Peace’, established to guide the stabilization of Gaza following the Israel-Hamas war. Moscow earlier signaled that it was contemplating the idea, while China has declined, citing commitments to the UN.

Joe Bastardi: The weather proving to European climate warriors that stupid is as stupid does

The leaders of Europe have put their people in jeopardy with their insane climate policies. They remain heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas. The Russian winter is turning punishing, as I feared it would when I wrote about its possible impact on the war back in August. Natural gas storage is at 52% of capacity. There is no reason for such a low level except for the nonsensical climate policies these leaders have pursued. You may think they have a suicide pact with their other policies, but it’s nothing compared to what could happen in the coming weeks.

Dr Jake Scott: The Bear Looks East

Russia’s economic realignment leaves Europe in the cold.

As the eyes of the world watch negotiations over Kiev’s future, and the “special military operation” that was intended to last ten days nears the end of its fourth year, Russia is carefully deepening its economic ties outside of the West’s sphere of influence.

Dr Will Jones: Britain Signs Deal to Deploy Troops to Ukraine

Britain has signed a deal to deploy boots on the ground in Ukraine as part of a proposed ceasefire deal backed for the first time by the United States. The Telegraph has more.

Tim Donner: Maduro - How His Daring Capture Will Change the World

This could stand as the most significant geopolitical event since 9/11

They got him. The nightmare of Nicolas Maduro’s illegitimate, murderous regime in Venezuela and the untold hundreds of thousands who have died at the hands of the lethal drugs pouring in from the South American narco-terrorist state has mercifully come to an end. After the daring capture of Maduro and his wife in the dark of night, the question quickly turns to what will happen next in once-prosperous Venezuela and, most importantly, how the success of this breathtaking military and law enforcement operation will change the geopolitics of not just the western hemisphere, but the entire world.

Robert G Patman: Trump’s new security strategy exposes the limits of NZ’s ‘softly-softly’ diplomacy

President Donald Trump’s recently-issued National Security Strategy marks a decisive break in United States foreign policy. It also poses an uncomfortable challenge for New Zealand and other countries that have long depended on a rules-based order.

The document formalises the most significant shift in Washington’s global outlook since 1947. It confirms, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned earlier this year, that the “West as we knew it no longer exists”.

James Alexander: America’s National Security Warning to Europe

There is value in following Trump’s comments. I wanted to see the recent interview in which he said “Europe is weak”, and this led me to something more serious, more apparently serious, I should say (since they are related): the recent publication of the ‘National Security Strategy of the United States of America‘. A primary document. I found it, and printed it out: 30 pages. And it is a good read: well-written, lacking the sort of matron-in-the-asylum-in-denial tone that afflicts the style in which HM Government documents are written.

Dave Patterson: When Putin Visits India, the White House Pays Attention

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has developed a fragile relationship with India as a counterweight to China and Russia. So the White House watched closely when Russian President Vladimir Putin joined Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit to assess what strategic agreements the two leaders had forged.

Dr Oliver Harwich: The long estrangement

It is strange to observe a nation act irrationally and against its own interests. Stranger still when that nation is your own.

I grew up in Germany. I still think in German. Yet Germany’s political psychology feels increasingly alien to me.

Dr Oliver Hartwich: Will Europe realise in time that it’s under Russian attack?

The annual public hearing of Germany’s intelligence chiefs is normally a tedious affair: Bureaucrats read prepared statements. Politicians ask predictable questions. And nothing much happens.

This year was different. On 13 October, the presidents of Germany’s three intelligence services – foreign, domestic and military – delivered a coordinated assessment that was remarkable for its bluntness.

Dr Oliver Hartwich: How Nato failed Putin’s drone test

On Wednesday morning last week, I was getting ready for my afternoon speech at the Financial Services Council conference in Auckland.

Between sessions, I scrolled through X on my phone. What I saw shocked me. Russian drones had violated Polish airspace. NATO fighters were scrambling in darkness. For the first time since the Ukraine war began, a NATO member was firing on Russian military assets.

Damien Grant: Are we living in the third pre-world war calm?

In 1919, after the calamity of the Great War, economist John Maynard Keynes wrote a pamphlet, The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Keynes was part of the delegation that formalised the Treaty of Versailles, of which he was critical for being too onerous.

Thinking back to the pre-war era Keynes wrote, “Very few of us realise with conviction the intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organisation by which Western Europe has lived for the last half century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly.”

Are we living in the third pre-world war calm?

Clive Pinder:

History, we are told, is written by the victors. Yet in Ukraine, the story may end up being written by those clever enough to redefine what ‘victory’ looks like.

Two tribes have been shouting across Western commentary trenches since 2022. On one side sit the realists, like John Mearsheimer, shrugging that Russia was provoked and that Ukraine must accept the grim realpolitik of geography. On the other side perch the idealists, like Matthew Syed, wagging fingers that anything short of total victory is appeasement.

Duggan Flanakin: Russia flexing nuclear energy muscles in Africa

Through its state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom, Russia under Vladimir Putin has extended its tentacles deep into Africa. Early in this century, Russia began escalating its outreach, offering its significant expertise in nuclear energy to emerging African nations eager to utilize the continent’s ample uranium resources to power their futures.

Dave Patterson: Trump Not Cowed by Russia’s Nuclear Saber Rattling

America doesn’t tremble just because some flunky in Russia pushes threatening rhetoric.

Unlike his predecessor, when a Russian flunky threatens nuclear consequences, President Trump does not back down. He calls his bluff. Dmitry Medvedev tried to do just that. Who is Medvedev? He’s the former Russian president. Or, rather, he played the role while Putin pulled the strings and Medvedev’s mouth moved. In Texas, they refer to this as all belt buckle and no cattle. However, just so there is no mistake about who is who in the world, if you want to talk big, then you’d better understand your audience.

Point of Order: Much more than a minerals deal

Full credit to European politicians: they know how to brief.

Latest in London’s Daily Telegraph is that “Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have together pulled off a remarkable feat of high statecraft” in shaping the US – Ukraine minerals deal signed a few days ago. There are even some nice words for Boris Johnson’s contribution.

Who knows, it could even be true. But it’s perhaps more important that they’re thinking that way.

Robert G Patman: Peace in our time?....

Peace in our time? Why NZ should resist Trump’s one-sided plan for Ukraine

Is it possible to reconcile increased international support for Ukraine with Donald Trump’s plan to end the war? At their recent meeting in London, Christopher Luxon and his British counterpart Keir Starmer seemed to think so.

Bob Edlin: Trump spells out his disapproval in CAPS.....

Trump spells out his disapproval in CAPS – and the Kremlin will be jolted – but NZ leaders prefer not to mention Putin’s name

You can learn a lot from caps.

For example, the Trump organisation’s online store is peddling “Trump 2028” merchandise – caps, t-shirts and what-have-you.