Clive Bibby: Success in politics is all about timing

Political survivors are more often than not those who choose the moment to make a move that will save their heads when everyone else is losing theirs.

And it makes little difference what issues are motivating voting trends because survival is all about choosing the right time to be against a policy that is affecting family budgets - because, at the time, nothing else matters.

Whether it is a policy that inexplicably favours one select minority group over the vast majority of hard working people or simply the continued pursuit of an ideologically driven policy that only increases the bills rather than helps to pay them, the response from voters will always be the same.

Their major concerns are always in the “here and now” - they can’t afford to wait another day for the cavalry to come over the hill so, sooner or later when they get the chance, they will overwhelmingly reject those who are considered to be responsible for a significant reduction in voters’ living standards.

And in the current environment with so much uncertainty on the international front, people are nearly always motivated by naked self interest and that usually means voting for someone who is promoting polices that offer the best odds for keeping them safe.

Consequently we see governments that were elected with huge majorities only a few years ago looking like dog tucker at the next ballot.

There are two main reasons why this dramatic shift has occurred in voter support.

The first and most obvious is because policies previously attractive to the electorate, have become unsustainable both in terms of affordability and also effectiveness. For example - the Australian Labor party’s promise to reduce homeowner energy costs while doing away with coal fired power plants has had the opposite effect on family budgets - so much so that this single issue ideologically based policy is now regarded as a betrayal and is likely to sink the incumbent Government at the next election .

Secondly, we are seeing the rise of right wing parties in countries throughout the Free World whose popularity are based pretty much on not being the current Government.

Of course there is more to the rapid rise in support for parties like Pauline Hanson’s One Nation in Australia or Nigel Farage’s Reform in the UK but the pattern emerging is of leaders who “tell it like it is”. Their appeal is based as much as anything on a searching for honesty amongst the ruling class - unfortunately, a rare commodity at any time.

And this betrayal is one that has affected voters across the board - so much so that traditional alliances no longer play a part in an individual’s choice at the ballot box.

The new world order is being built on a rearrangement of people’s trust in policies that are proven to work - as opposed to those that don’t.

ln this country the pattern is the same and it is interesting to note that the minor party currently soaring in the polls is NZ First - a party led by that wily old warrior, the Rt Hon Winston Peters whose appeal has always been to focus on the immediate needs of his constituents, but also (like Hanson and Farage) unafraid of stepping on the racial or social sensitivities of those who have proved to be untrustworthy hypocrites.

In the end, when push comes to shove, long suffering voters care little about political sensitivities - they crave stability and they need honesty and will do anything to get both.

It will therefore be unsurprising if next time around, we see a mass exodus of those who have traditionally voted for left wing parties, now being prepared to ditch previous allegiances and vote for change that offers stability. What is promised will be what you get.

It can’t happen quick enough.

Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.