However, the critics miss the unpleasant point Hipkins finally seems to have acknowledged. Based on its performance of constant over-promising and chronic under-delivery when last in government, Labour starts with a massive credibility problem when it comes to new policy. Add in the lingering bitterness in Auckland at Labour's treatment of the city during the second Covid19 lockdown, not to mention that as Covid19 Minister Hipkins was a dominant part of that, and the depth of Hipkins' and Labour's Auckland credibility problem becomes even starker.
Against that backdrop, a major policy speech from Hipkins to Auckland business would have gone down like a lead balloon. It simply would not have been taken seriously because the memory of how Hipkins (both when Covid19 Minister and later as Prime Minister) and Labour treated Auckland – where elections traditionally are won or lost – is still too raw.
Therefore, Hipkins' primary task over the last two years has been to repair the fences Labour has broken in Auckland and to rebuild his own personal credibility before he can be taken seriously as a Prime Minister. It is at best an ongoing, incomplete work in progress.
His speech this week was an important part of that, aiming to project Hipkins as a credible, trustworthy and reliable leader who could guide the country steadily through its current difficulties. If Aucklanders, and by extension New Zealanders generally, are going to warm to Labour again so quickly after dumping them unceremoniously at the last election, it must be because they are warming to the prospect of Hipkins as Prime Minister again. So, his primary objective in that speech was to present himself as an unthreatening and competent leader to whom people can relate to and trust.
Hipkins' quiet, reflective and almost sombre tone is like that being followed by his finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds in her own presentations to business and professional audiences. The message from both is that Labour has learnt its lessons from the still not specifically acknowledged, but implicitly understood, failures of its last stint in office, and can now be relied on to be more prudent and reliable if elected to government later this year.
To reinforce that sense, both Hipkins and Edmonds are holding steadily to the line that Labour will not announce any new policies until after this year’s Budget when the true state of the government’s books will be known. While that sounds good and fits the tone both are trying to set, it could also mean that there are still battles to be resolved between the Caucus and the party’s left-wing, union dominated Policy Council.
But there is also a bigger point, beyond the need to rebuild Hipkins’ and Labour’s public credibility and any still unresolved internal party policy battles. Any future Labour-led government will need to involve the Green Party and probably Te Pati Māori. Hipkins knows that that prospect is downright scary to many of the swinging voters Labour needs to attract this year.
He also knows that Prime Minister Luxon is frequently criticised for his government too often appearing to be led by the nose by its ACT and New Zealand First partners. Hipkins is therefore understandably keen to avoid reinforcing any impression that the Green Party and Te Pati Māori will be similarly dominant in any future government he may lead.
In the wider sense, the truism that Oppositions do not win elections, but governments lose them still applies. As has been the case for nearly all this Parliamentary term, the current government leads the Opposition bloc in public opinion polls, albeit narrowly. But the polls are also showing increasing disapproval of the government’s performance and general indifference to the Opposition.
It is therefore in the Opposition’s interest to keep the public focus substantially on the government’s performance for as long as possible. The key thing Labour can do in the meantime is repair its credibility so that when voters are ready it looks like a credible lead party of government-in-waiting.
That is what Hipkins and Edmonds are trying to do through their public presentations – a combination of reassurance and prudence in difficult times. Making bold new promises at this stage to an electorate that is tired and cynical of the worth of politicians’ offerings would be counterproductive to their cause, and they both know it. Unfortunately, though, the ongoing public sourness and sense of denial about their public perception some of their colleagues still project undermines their efforts.
Hipkins’ state of the nation speech, derided by some as boring and unimaginative, was an important signal that he wants to lead a steady, predictable and focused government. But he faces two significant challenges from here on. The first will be sticking to that message as the campaign unfolds and the pressures from the various left-wing unions and support groups mount for more spending and intervention. And the second will be to persuade those who are of a mind to listen that he is strong enough to ensure any government he leads will be steady, predictable and focused, and not hijacked by the Green Party or Te Pati Māori if their numbers are vital to him forming a government.
Despite Hipkins’ best efforts, Labour’s path to government still remains steeply uphill.
Peter Dunne, a retired Member of Parliament and Cabinet Minister, who represented Labour and United Future for over 30 years, blogs here: honpfd.blogspot.com - Where this article was sourced.
Against that backdrop, a major policy speech from Hipkins to Auckland business would have gone down like a lead balloon. It simply would not have been taken seriously because the memory of how Hipkins (both when Covid19 Minister and later as Prime Minister) and Labour treated Auckland – where elections traditionally are won or lost – is still too raw.
Therefore, Hipkins' primary task over the last two years has been to repair the fences Labour has broken in Auckland and to rebuild his own personal credibility before he can be taken seriously as a Prime Minister. It is at best an ongoing, incomplete work in progress.
His speech this week was an important part of that, aiming to project Hipkins as a credible, trustworthy and reliable leader who could guide the country steadily through its current difficulties. If Aucklanders, and by extension New Zealanders generally, are going to warm to Labour again so quickly after dumping them unceremoniously at the last election, it must be because they are warming to the prospect of Hipkins as Prime Minister again. So, his primary objective in that speech was to present himself as an unthreatening and competent leader to whom people can relate to and trust.
Hipkins' quiet, reflective and almost sombre tone is like that being followed by his finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds in her own presentations to business and professional audiences. The message from both is that Labour has learnt its lessons from the still not specifically acknowledged, but implicitly understood, failures of its last stint in office, and can now be relied on to be more prudent and reliable if elected to government later this year.
To reinforce that sense, both Hipkins and Edmonds are holding steadily to the line that Labour will not announce any new policies until after this year’s Budget when the true state of the government’s books will be known. While that sounds good and fits the tone both are trying to set, it could also mean that there are still battles to be resolved between the Caucus and the party’s left-wing, union dominated Policy Council.
But there is also a bigger point, beyond the need to rebuild Hipkins’ and Labour’s public credibility and any still unresolved internal party policy battles. Any future Labour-led government will need to involve the Green Party and probably Te Pati Māori. Hipkins knows that that prospect is downright scary to many of the swinging voters Labour needs to attract this year.
He also knows that Prime Minister Luxon is frequently criticised for his government too often appearing to be led by the nose by its ACT and New Zealand First partners. Hipkins is therefore understandably keen to avoid reinforcing any impression that the Green Party and Te Pati Māori will be similarly dominant in any future government he may lead.
In the wider sense, the truism that Oppositions do not win elections, but governments lose them still applies. As has been the case for nearly all this Parliamentary term, the current government leads the Opposition bloc in public opinion polls, albeit narrowly. But the polls are also showing increasing disapproval of the government’s performance and general indifference to the Opposition.
It is therefore in the Opposition’s interest to keep the public focus substantially on the government’s performance for as long as possible. The key thing Labour can do in the meantime is repair its credibility so that when voters are ready it looks like a credible lead party of government-in-waiting.
That is what Hipkins and Edmonds are trying to do through their public presentations – a combination of reassurance and prudence in difficult times. Making bold new promises at this stage to an electorate that is tired and cynical of the worth of politicians’ offerings would be counterproductive to their cause, and they both know it. Unfortunately, though, the ongoing public sourness and sense of denial about their public perception some of their colleagues still project undermines their efforts.
Hipkins’ state of the nation speech, derided by some as boring and unimaginative, was an important signal that he wants to lead a steady, predictable and focused government. But he faces two significant challenges from here on. The first will be sticking to that message as the campaign unfolds and the pressures from the various left-wing unions and support groups mount for more spending and intervention. And the second will be to persuade those who are of a mind to listen that he is strong enough to ensure any government he leads will be steady, predictable and focused, and not hijacked by the Green Party or Te Pati Māori if their numbers are vital to him forming a government.
Despite Hipkins’ best efforts, Labour’s path to government still remains steeply uphill.
Peter Dunne, a retired Member of Parliament and Cabinet Minister, who represented Labour and United Future for over 30 years, blogs here: honpfd.blogspot.com - Where this article was sourced.
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