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Tuesday, February 10, 2026

David Farrar: The actual impact of India FTA on immigration will be tiny


The India – NZ FTA allows 1,667 three-year temporary employment entry (TEE) visas per annum (capped at a maximum of 5,000 at any point in time).

However 1,466 of those visas are for skilled occupations already on the green list. We already issue 28,000 or so of these a year, including 4,500 a year to Indian nationals. So those 1,466 a year will be zero increase on what we are already doing. It is a floor, but a floor at one third of the level we are already at.

So that leaves 200 a year to ‘iconic’ Indian occupations. The maximum at any time would be 600. Even if they do successfully bring in family, again the maximum number of “extra” people in NZ would be around 2,000 in a country of 5 million.

On an annual basis you are taking maybe 650 more incoming migrants a year on top of the 136,000 we already have. That is a 0.5% increase.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders

4 comments:

Robert MacCulloch said...

This article is factually wrong. It symbolizes the failure of the institutions of the right (and left) in NZ. The India trade agreement opens uncapped access to tertiary education in this country. With rights to work and stay on in the country afterward. I teach on these programmes. So stop writing this garbage, National party aligned Kiwiblog. This outfit is affiliated with the Nats weekly polling agency which has corrupted policy making in NZ. That is, its MPs just run after silly herd behaviour influenced polls and follow - not lead - with no deep thought attached to anything.

Together with the NZ (oligopolists) Initiative the Nats have become bent and subversive and caused a day to day struggle to survive and afford the necessities in middle NZ. Shame most Kiwis don't know it, but I took a look behind the scenes since I personally knew a bunch of billionaires & cabinet ministers & saw what was happening.

Anonymous said...

This agreement is all about back-dooring migrants via the 'education' loophole with uncapped numbers to study then work here. I used to work in a major multinational and saw the impact of this first hand under Labour's drive to increase Indian students with no controls - they started coming into the workforce and were seriously useless. Total midwits with zero autonomy or skills, really just added friction and no benefit. I got rid of them when I could because they slowed everything down. This is another attempt by globalists to flood the market with immigrants on the flawed assumption that a) it drives up GDP, when it actually kills GDP per capita; b) have some cheap ready made slave labour (e.g. Pizza Hut having Restaurant Manager on the skilled migrant list) and c) create a pool of grateful voters - no matter the cost to the country and social cohesion. We don't need these people and they drag the country down e.g. infrastructure burden, lowering the average IQ etc.
Stop doing this National -we're on to you and you're just as bad as Labour.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm. I'd probably hire 1 Kiwi in 10 given the deplorable work ethic of today's youth....

Anonymous said...

Winston has his faults but he is really astute at reading legal documents, and I would trust his view on this matter, I suspect our PM and his team have been rail-roaded by India over this, in their haste to sign anything because they promised they would

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