I’ve not seen the full text of the agreement between the Islamic Regime and the United States, but I’m prepared already to call it a failure.
At best, this is just the start of a temporary ceasefire. This is not a peace agreement or anything remotely close. It is a memorandum of understanding – an agreement to discuss things further.
Other than ships may once again be able to transit the Strait of Hormuz, it is difficult to see much other good coming from this framework, soon to signed in Switzerland.
The failures are numerous, and it is hard to know where to start. The Islamic regime remains in power and undoubtedly will use the coming weeks, months, and years to kill and detain any Iranians who oppose them. Just as thousands of Iranian citizens died at their hands at the beginning of the year, sadly, more blood will now follow as they seek to re-entrench themselves.
I am sure the Iranian diaspora will be distraught as well. The hope for real, meaningful change in Iran has dimmed. The desire for change is not completely gone of course, and nor should it, but the hope that this conflict would have facilitated a move towards freedom has faded for now.
There is apparently no clear way forward concerning Iran’s nuclear material and capacity. This is a key aspect of the discussions going forward, but the cynic in me believes the same hurdles that have hampered negotiations to date, will remain. Put another way, if no agreement on the nuclear issue has been agreed by now, why on earth do we think a few more weeks or months is going to make any difference?
The Islamic regime has also learned it holds considerable influence through its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. This option was always a possibility, but now it has been proven. They’ve also shown military resilience, including around its ability to deploy missiles and drones. The American’s claims that they’ve totally degraded Iran’s military is demonstrably false. The Islamic regime has clearly been hit very hard, but they are still able to launch attacks and they will recover their stocks of arms and hardware. This resupply is only a matter of time and money, both of which I suspect this framework will inadvertently enable in the same way Obama’s equally failed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did.
The Islamic regime will also increase its use of proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. These terrorist groups have always given Tehran an ability to deny responsibility for attacks on the likes of Israel or Iraq, and I expect these proxies to be used more as the regime continues to exert its influence.
Speaking of Israel, they are another loser through this agreement. The Islamic regime remains, and its proxies still hold ground in Lebanon. If the agreement binds Israel as I expect it will, then its need for self-defence will become akin to a man with one hand tied behind his back. Expect to see Hezbollah continue to launch rockets and attacks, but the Trump administration exerting pressure on Israel to hold back from securing its citizens, particularly at the northern border. As noted before, Tehran will continue its eschatological inspired attacks on Israel via its proxies, with the latter always giving the Islamic regime a degree of distance from accountability.
The place of eschatology is a further reason why this agreement will be a failure. The Islamic regime is a death cult. Its religious ideology is one of submission and death. We need only look at the history of the regime to see this, be it the way it treats women to how it murders its own citizens, while also projecting terror across the globe. Its obsession with the Jews (and Christians) will not stop because it is core to the regime’s political, religious, and eschatological identity. No agreement will change this.
Which brings me to my final point. The Islamic regime is not one to concede or make a deal. The Western mindset says, we give a little, the other side concedes a little, we shake hands and agree to move on. However, this is not the mindset of the religious zealots running Iran. For them, concessions by those they oppose are a sign of that opponent’s weakness. For the fanatic, to be offered a concession is a confirmation that they are right. The Islamic regime will use this agreement as just another bluff, another delay, another stalling tactic.
When this regime calls for the death of Israel and the death of America; when they kill thousands of their own people and export terror – the beliefs underpinning all of this are not suddenly abandoned because of some flimsy ‘peace’ framework.
Trump and others have both misunderstood and underestimated the Islamic regime. If we think some Western inspired bit of paper or any memorandum is going to change the course of this fanatic Islamic regime, we are deluding ourselves.
The framework once fully released will not be a victory. It will be a failure for whether it is six days, six months, or six years, the same death obsessed, religious fanaticism of the Islamic regime will reappear. Sadly, for freedom loving Iranians held hostage in Iran, this failure is being experienced right now but it will be felt again across the Middle East and the world no matter what the peace deal supposedly seeks to deliver.
Simon O'Connor a former National MP graduated from the University of Auckland with a Bachelor of Arts in Geography and Political Studies . Simon blogs at On Point - where this article was sourced.
There is apparently no clear way forward concerning Iran’s nuclear material and capacity. This is a key aspect of the discussions going forward, but the cynic in me believes the same hurdles that have hampered negotiations to date, will remain. Put another way, if no agreement on the nuclear issue has been agreed by now, why on earth do we think a few more weeks or months is going to make any difference?
The Islamic regime has also learned it holds considerable influence through its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. This option was always a possibility, but now it has been proven. They’ve also shown military resilience, including around its ability to deploy missiles and drones. The American’s claims that they’ve totally degraded Iran’s military is demonstrably false. The Islamic regime has clearly been hit very hard, but they are still able to launch attacks and they will recover their stocks of arms and hardware. This resupply is only a matter of time and money, both of which I suspect this framework will inadvertently enable in the same way Obama’s equally failed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did.
The Islamic regime will also increase its use of proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. These terrorist groups have always given Tehran an ability to deny responsibility for attacks on the likes of Israel or Iraq, and I expect these proxies to be used more as the regime continues to exert its influence.
Speaking of Israel, they are another loser through this agreement. The Islamic regime remains, and its proxies still hold ground in Lebanon. If the agreement binds Israel as I expect it will, then its need for self-defence will become akin to a man with one hand tied behind his back. Expect to see Hezbollah continue to launch rockets and attacks, but the Trump administration exerting pressure on Israel to hold back from securing its citizens, particularly at the northern border. As noted before, Tehran will continue its eschatological inspired attacks on Israel via its proxies, with the latter always giving the Islamic regime a degree of distance from accountability.
The place of eschatology is a further reason why this agreement will be a failure. The Islamic regime is a death cult. Its religious ideology is one of submission and death. We need only look at the history of the regime to see this, be it the way it treats women to how it murders its own citizens, while also projecting terror across the globe. Its obsession with the Jews (and Christians) will not stop because it is core to the regime’s political, religious, and eschatological identity. No agreement will change this.
Which brings me to my final point. The Islamic regime is not one to concede or make a deal. The Western mindset says, we give a little, the other side concedes a little, we shake hands and agree to move on. However, this is not the mindset of the religious zealots running Iran. For them, concessions by those they oppose are a sign of that opponent’s weakness. For the fanatic, to be offered a concession is a confirmation that they are right. The Islamic regime will use this agreement as just another bluff, another delay, another stalling tactic.
When this regime calls for the death of Israel and the death of America; when they kill thousands of their own people and export terror – the beliefs underpinning all of this are not suddenly abandoned because of some flimsy ‘peace’ framework.
Trump and others have both misunderstood and underestimated the Islamic regime. If we think some Western inspired bit of paper or any memorandum is going to change the course of this fanatic Islamic regime, we are deluding ourselves.
The framework once fully released will not be a victory. It will be a failure for whether it is six days, six months, or six years, the same death obsessed, religious fanaticism of the Islamic regime will reappear. Sadly, for freedom loving Iranians held hostage in Iran, this failure is being experienced right now but it will be felt again across the Middle East and the world no matter what the peace deal supposedly seeks to deliver.
Simon O'Connor a former National MP graduated from the University of Auckland with a Bachelor of Arts in Geography and Political Studies . Simon blogs at On Point - where this article was sourced.
9 comments:
Hard to know where to start? No it isn’t. Israel were nuts for kicking it off and their lap dog USA were nuts for going along with it. There.
The biggest lesson Iran has learnt is that the West is to weak to stand up for itself. If we care so little for ourselves, we deserve to be taken over and treated as slaves.
The Iranian people were given an opportunity and didn't take it. The US should have put together a military Coalition in October 2023 when its bases came under heavy attack. Biden didn't have the stomach for war and neither did other countries.
Simon is quite correct in pointing out that this is no 'peace deal', only an MOU that will lead to talks about concluding such a 'deal'.
From the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA):
"Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht-e-Ravanchi has said that negotiations on a final agreement will begin immediately after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States in Switzerland.
Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting with ambassadors, chargés d’affaires, and heads of foreign and international missions based in Tehran, Takht-e-Ravanchi responded to IRNA's questions regarding the implementation details of reciprocal steps outlined in the Pakistan-mediated MoU. He said that once the signing of the MoU is completed in Switzerland, negotiations will begin.
He added that there has been no discussion of details such as how long the Iranian delegation will stay in Geneva or what specific topics will be addressed. However, both the Iranian and American sides have confirmed that talks on a final agreement will start after the MoU is signed.
According to the Iranian diplomat, the upcoming meeting will include representatives from both sides, with US Vice President James David Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf expected to be present in Switzerland.
Addressing questions about possible violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon, Takht-e-Ravanchi said the memorandum includes a clear provision on ending the war and military operations across all fronts. He noted that, in the event of any violation by the Israeli regime, the mechanism stipulated in the MoU would be invoked. He added that the United States had undertaken, on behalf of its partners, to ensure an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
The deputy foreign minister also stressed that discussions on Iran’s nuclear commitments remain general at this stage. Iran has not yet entered into detailed negotiations on these issues, he said, adding that nuclear matters are clear in principle, including enrichment, stockpiles of nuclear material, and Iran’s nuclear requirements. However, detailed discussions will take place after the MoU is signed and formally recognized.
It is worth noting that Pakistan has emerged as a key intermediary in recent US-Iran diplomacy, helping secure a temporary ceasefire in April and facilitating months of shuttle diplomacy that culminated in an agreement on the so-called “Islamabad Memorandum,” paving the way for negotiations on a broader settlement between Tehran and Washington."
Trump is on record as saying he expected the Iranians to offer "unconditional surrender" (his words) after 4-6 weeks. I think the appropriate riposte is "Famous last words."
Anon 918 unaware of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Read up, Anon!
The nuclear issue it seems is, according to Tousi TV which is a good alternative to legacy media and rated reliable, with on the ground in Iran coverage, is about the return of confiscated assets and other monies ( billions of dollars) in return for closing down nuclear programmes. Not likely but the nuclear threat to Israel is not imminent because Iran's nuclear stuff has been destroyed but could with time be built up again.
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I laugh at most of the commentary here because President Trump has said before, and again now the memo is signed " that the stopping of Nuclear weapons was the main reason for the international skirmish"
Why do you not all read international news instead of garbage from NZ and all your pathetic meanderings would be known to yourselves .
Basil, Trump has said dozens of contradictory things. That’s what’s so great about his approach, blind followers pick the ones that suit the current discussion and ignore all the rest. Facts say USA has chickens out and surrendered and the USA is out $300b plus weapons costs.
It’s like they wanted a rugby sevens style Vietnam.
Can I offer a suggestion - " That NZ invite the Iran Football Team to NZ for a Tour of the Country, playing many of the local teams".
At the same time we could -
- have Maori display all their Cultural Actions that are designed to 'terrorize' all opponents
- have MFAT create displays of NZ food products that could be imported to Iran -
(you know redevelop our Lamb exports to Iran, as before - meat for oil!!!!)
- ensure (for the Iran Govt) , that no player will abscond whilst in NZ
- prohibit any protests on what Iran stands for.
Yup, now how will that enthuse our "nearest & dearest" partners & how will they deal with that?????
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