Should the assertions in this Blog be even roughly correct, it looks like Finance Minister has a lot of explaining to do. Where's the evidence? Well, the long term fiscal situation is one my fields in economics - we even flew out the guru on such matters, Larry "Fiscal Gap" Kotlikoff, from the US several years ago. I organized a meeting between him and PM English, as well as other Members of Parliament. The graph below comes from the NZ Treasury's Long-Term Fiscal Forecasts. It was released in 2021. The forecast for 2035 is that the Budget will be in deficit by about 2% of GDP (as measured by the excess of Core Crown primary expenses over Core Crown primary revenues). Given GDP is around $400 billion, we're talking about $8 billion per annum. That kind of number causes our national debt to explode. The excess is mainly due to the ageing population putting pressures on health and pensions spending.
