These two gentlemen share a certain amount of commonality. They have both had successful business careers and to deny that is nothing more than spite. That doesn’t mean we have to like them as political leaders. Key has had a major influence on Luxon and could be aptly described as his mentor. I think this is where the problem with Luxon starts because his similar traits to Key have become obvious, particularly in the area of race policy. Key allowing the Māori Party to sign the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Agreement has foisted all the current race problems upon us.
Both Key and Luxon tend to follow a more liberal path than a conservative one. Key blended both socially and economically liberal policies, which took National from the right and more to the centre. Luxon is continuing this approach, which now sees the party at below 30 per cent in the polls. Having Willis and Bishop on the same page is driving the party further in this direction. The upshot of that is a divided party, illustrated by two attempted leadership coups and, again, the poll numbers plus a not insignificant number of disgruntled supporters who are now looking elsewhere to find a party that better represents their interests.
Which brings me to the point that Key and Luxon don’t get – tactical voting. My headline is actually a misrepresentation of the fact that I’m sure they do get it. They are simply representing their party when they use the words “dumb” and “insane”. They know full well the damage that tactical voting can do to the party’s list chances at the election. Their aim is for ‘two ticks blue’ so National can become the largest party in parliament. The irony is that what supporters, and voters in general, have witnessed in the first term has largely been a turnoff. They are the authors of their own demise. Their actions have ensured that the plaintive call of ‘two ticks blue’ will not resonate.
Tactical voting serves THREE purposes: ensuring a right leaning government, reducing the power of a liberally inclined National Party and increasing the power of the more fiscally and socially conservative parties ACT and NZ First.
Winston has made no secret of the fact that he is encouraging tactical voting and why wouldn’t he? The party has nothing to lose and everything to gain. My bet is that on election night ACT and NZ First will register higher numbers than those currently showing in the polls. Their polling will determine just how successful or otherwise tactical voting has been. A good number for both those parties is advantageous to the right and is the best way of ensuring a right coalition forms the next government. It is also the best way of making sure the lunatics on the left return to the seats they have occupied for the last three years.
Like everything else in life, nothing in politics is certain but there are ways to assist the aim of certainty. Harry Mowbray has done the maths and told Heather du Plessis-Allan that if enough voters on the right employ this tactic there will never be a government of the left again.
So I think Key and Luxon do get it and using words like dumb and insane bring to mind another word: panic. They know that no list MPs means no Willis and no Bishop, which will likely put a dent in their more liberal agenda. If Key and Luxon don’t wish to change course then voters will use tactical voting as a way to try and do it for them. It’s not rocket science – it’s using a flaw in the MMP system to try and produce a desired outcome. Neither Luxon nor Key can prevent it and they are only too well aware of what sort of outcome a tsunami of tactical votes will produce.
JC is a right-wing crusader. Reached an age that embodies the dictum only the good die young. This article was first published HERE
Both Key and Luxon tend to follow a more liberal path than a conservative one. Key blended both socially and economically liberal policies, which took National from the right and more to the centre. Luxon is continuing this approach, which now sees the party at below 30 per cent in the polls. Having Willis and Bishop on the same page is driving the party further in this direction. The upshot of that is a divided party, illustrated by two attempted leadership coups and, again, the poll numbers plus a not insignificant number of disgruntled supporters who are now looking elsewhere to find a party that better represents their interests.
Which brings me to the point that Key and Luxon don’t get – tactical voting. My headline is actually a misrepresentation of the fact that I’m sure they do get it. They are simply representing their party when they use the words “dumb” and “insane”. They know full well the damage that tactical voting can do to the party’s list chances at the election. Their aim is for ‘two ticks blue’ so National can become the largest party in parliament. The irony is that what supporters, and voters in general, have witnessed in the first term has largely been a turnoff. They are the authors of their own demise. Their actions have ensured that the plaintive call of ‘two ticks blue’ will not resonate.
Tactical voting serves THREE purposes: ensuring a right leaning government, reducing the power of a liberally inclined National Party and increasing the power of the more fiscally and socially conservative parties ACT and NZ First.
Winston has made no secret of the fact that he is encouraging tactical voting and why wouldn’t he? The party has nothing to lose and everything to gain. My bet is that on election night ACT and NZ First will register higher numbers than those currently showing in the polls. Their polling will determine just how successful or otherwise tactical voting has been. A good number for both those parties is advantageous to the right and is the best way of ensuring a right coalition forms the next government. It is also the best way of making sure the lunatics on the left return to the seats they have occupied for the last three years.
Like everything else in life, nothing in politics is certain but there are ways to assist the aim of certainty. Harry Mowbray has done the maths and told Heather du Plessis-Allan that if enough voters on the right employ this tactic there will never be a government of the left again.
So I think Key and Luxon do get it and using words like dumb and insane bring to mind another word: panic. They know that no list MPs means no Willis and no Bishop, which will likely put a dent in their more liberal agenda. If Key and Luxon don’t wish to change course then voters will use tactical voting as a way to try and do it for them. It’s not rocket science – it’s using a flaw in the MMP system to try and produce a desired outcome. Neither Luxon nor Key can prevent it and they are only too well aware of what sort of outcome a tsunami of tactical votes will produce.
JC is a right-wing crusader. Reached an age that embodies the dictum only the good die young. This article was first published HERE
10 comments:
You can add to this list , Liam Hehir...long time National Party member and commentator , positively destroying his reputation for 'objectivity' by loudly banging the same drum as Key and Luxon.
National have simply FAILED to live up to their promises to their now erstwhile supporters! Tactical voting springs from this truth.
Chris Penk must be happy in a sense ,to be free from such ' tactical luddites'!!
Luxon is the worst National PM since Muldoon. He would suit the Greens with his climate change alarmism. I could try to explain the reasoning for splitting your vote, but Harry Mowbray is better at Split Your Vote. Just Google those three words.
Chuck, you are so right. Muldoon had the same arrogant " I am right, don't defy me " attitude.
As a lifelong National supporter, they will never get my vote again until Luxon has gone, and someone who will dis-establish the Waitangi Tribunal, and the remaining pro Maori laws is leading National.
And don’t forget - electorate vote National is just as important as party vote ACT/NZF or Labour will sneak back into at least 9 currently marginal National seats, and the ‘National Overhang’ strategy is in tatters.
NZ right wing coalition voters have to continue to explain , extoll and convince the NZ intelligent population that splitting YOUR Party Vote ( my deliberate emphasis ) is lawful and legally compliant .
It is not a rort , unlawful , gerrymandering or any other negative , it is your private property .
Use your Party vote wisely and ELECTORATE VOTE NATIONAL AND PARTY VOTE ACT OR NZF
It's probably stating the obvious but the die is now firmly cast for National, their vote is going to land in the mid to late 20's.
They need a charismatic leader who stands for things Nationals voters do but instead they've got a opinionless unaware sales and marketing manager who avoids air time like the plague. So he ain't going to save them.
They've got the liberal leftist Willis with her crazy idea of big government interference in the supermarket industry and has accordingly, just torched her credibility.
Then there's the Simon Watts types who are simply useless.
I'm guessing Nat voters sre generally smarter than most and will vote for their electorate MP's but as insurance will party vote ACT/NZF.
You have espoused exactly my thoughts on the current National Party and their drift to the left. Luxon and Key are arrogant in their supercilious comments that any National voters that split their vote are dumd or insane. Vote splitting is a result of their not doing what they said they would in the 2023 election campaign. Luxon has been the instigator of National supporters considering splitting their vote. Luxon needs to be replaced as leader and therefore PM as soon as the National, Act, NZF Coalition is back in Government.
Has Key forgotten about Hilary Clinton attacking Trump voters? Key says those who split their votes are stupid. Key is stupid for attacking voters.
Frame this any which way you want, the bottom line is that it is anti-democratic. One person one vote.
Anon 1149, yelling at people usually doesn’t help. Maybe the really weak-minded, but those folks were already voting for cooker parties anyway. So who are you trying to target? Sorry, in another way: WHO ARE YOU TRYING TO TARGET?
Post a Comment
Thank you for joining the discussion. Breaking Views welcomes respectful contributions that enrich the debate. Please ensure your comments are not defamatory, derogatory or disruptive. We appreciate your cooperation.