With Opportunity set for 7% of the vote, and National leader Christopher Luxon having ruled out working with the party, today’s results point to a route to power for Labour.
National 29%
Labour 28%
Greens 16%
NZ First 10%
ACT 9%
OPP 7%
TPM 1%
See the full poll results here > https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/06/poll-opportunity-still-in-kingmaker-seat-as-greens-hold-strong/
Labour 28%
Greens 16%
NZ First 10%
ACT 9%
OPP 7%
TPM 1%
See the full poll results here > https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/06/poll-opportunity-still-in-kingmaker-seat-as-greens-hold-strong/
5 comments:
I wouldn't trust any information coming from 1News, but one certainly gets the impression that the Greens want to win the election and Chloe wants to become finance minister while National, especially Luxon, want to lose it.
if you are prepared to be broadminded, you can see that parties other than National and Labour are articulating appealing policies. Many voters will be swayed by TOP and The Greens.
We know that these policies don't generate wealth for any of us. We are still suffering from the "covid years". TOP wants to tax us but defer all payments into the never-never. National in particular are neglecting huge chunks of their voters. They are courting the "wrong voters". It is now too late and I suspect these polls are reasonably accurate.
You can't waste three years in government meeting and greeting people who won't vote for you and alienating those that will.
What are the margins of error for this poll? That is critical information to know.
Margins of error tend to be based on the assumptions that the sample was representative and that people chosen cooperated and answered honestly. These assumptions hold for a barrel full of marbles of different colours into which the sampler dips his/her hand to extract a sample but they do not hold for flesh-and-blood subjects in the real world. At the very least the frequency of people refusing to participate and the "don't knows/no opinion" frequencies should be built into the margin of error calculation. You'd get the shock of your life it they were and you were relying on the accuracy of those polls!
I don’t believe a party with Chloe Swarbrick is ahead of a party with Paul Henry. One of these people has no place being in politics let alone government.
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