He knows it as well, which is why he wouldn't say no when Jack Tame kept questioning him about whether he would call her on November 8 if he had to. He will call her because he wants to be back in government and he knows his voters will forgive him if he breaks his promise to rule them out. His voters would rather have Opportunity in a government with National than no National-led government at all, right?
Now, having said that, the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll did show that Opportunity being in Parliament is not a foregone conclusion by any stretch. They were on 4.8%, which is shy of the 5% they need to get into Parliament.
And them crashing out like that is actually the best-case scenario for Luxon because, in that poll, the coalition government wins with a comfortable majority of 65 seats to 55 for the Labour-led bloc. That's largely because of the wasted vote that Opportunity takes with it. A 4.8% vote is enormous, gone from the left bloc.
My take is that for Opportunity to actually make it into Parliament on election day, they need to go into that final week with a solid 6% in the polls. That way, their voters will be confident they're not wasting their vote and they're not going to panic and shift to the Greens at the last moment.
For the record, I still think Luxon will be Prime Minister after election day. Opportunity will either crash out spectacularly, in which case the right will win because Opportunity has fallen short, or Opportunity will get in, Luxon will call them, and they'll work out a deal.
Because Wong is right: if he has to, he's calling them.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and radio broadcaster who hosts Newstalk ZB's weekday Drive-Time Show – where this article was sourced.
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