Adrian Beaumont: National drops 2 seats on NZ final results, and will need NZ First to form government

The final results of the October 14 New Zealand election have been released.

The National Party has won a total of 48 seats (down two from the preliminary election night results), Labour has won 34 (remaining steady), the Green Party has won 15 (up one), ACT has won 11 (steady), NZ First has won eight (steady) and te Pāti Māori/the Māori party has won six seats (up two).

Adrian Beaumont: Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election night.

Special votes tend to take a long time to count because they include votes cast outside a voter’s home electorate. These votes need to be posted back to the home electorate and checked against the electoral roll before they can be counted.

Adrian Beaumont: Polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority

While the tide well and truly went out on Labour on election night, there are still several factors complicating the formation of a National and ACT coalition government. Special votes are yet to be counted, with the official final result still three weeks away.

In past elections special votes have boosted the left parties. If that is the case this year, we won’t know by how much until November 3. Consequently, the preliminary results may be slightly skewed against the left.

Adrian Beaumont: NZ Election 2023

Final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling closely.

The emergence of NZ First as potential kingmaker has seen warnings, particularly from the National Party, of an indecisive result and even the possible need for a second election if coalition negotiations broke down.

Adrian Beaumont: Foreign policy has been missing from NZ’s election campaign

Tax cuts, crime, the cost of living, potholes and co-governance … these and various other issues are now familiar to most voters. But there has been one major election area missing the serious debate it needs: foreign policy.

Whichever parties form the next government, and whoever becomes prime minister, they will also be charged with negotiating New Zealand’s place in a dynamic and changing world.

Adrian Beaumont: NZ election 2023 - Current polls

Combined poll trends now show a clear rightward shift since June

With exactly one month until New Zealand’s general election, all major polls are now showing a clear rightward trend since June.

With some recent polls showing New Zealand First on or above the 5% MMP threshold, the only real wildcard at this point is whether the party will be returned to parliament after October 14.