Professor Robert MacCulloch: Should NZ's secular stagnation be due to working-from-home....

Should NZ's secular stagnation be due to working-from-home, lack-of-meritocracy & endless Treaty debates, then we can forget economic growth.

The country does not appear to be in a cyclical down-turn. Of course, the PM and his Finance Minister are desperately praying that all we have been experiencing is just a typical "business cycle", and once interest rates come down things will turn. However, the evidence points more to a long-lasting slow-down, which attracts the name "secular stagnation" in economics.

Brian Easton: The Post-Covid Economy

Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?

This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them in due course) but the Treasury are competent economists persuaded by the evidence, so other economists should be able to make reasonable guesses at what is bothering them