Mike's Minute: The reality of NZ vs Australia's fuel response

Like a school report, the International Monetary Fund forecast for the global economy arrived in yesterday's post.

No one escaped the Trump carnage. The UK in particular is in trouble, as is potentially Australia.

Australia was warned not to exacerbate wartime inflation. It was a slap down, a mark against the Government and a big reveal into the way Albanese and his cronies run the place.

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Can Nicola Willis pull off her no new money budget?

If Nicola Willis can pull this Budget off, it'll be impressive, because she has written a budget, by the looks of things, that is so tight, there is basically no new money.

If you haven’t caught up on this, Nicola Willis gave a speech this morning in which she announced she was cutting back her new spending in this budget hugely.

Heather du Plessis-Allan: The Government aren't fixing our economic mess

We knew the Government books were going to be bad, but not this bad. 

No way we’re getting to the surplus we expected in 2028. That is now so far away it’s not even in Treasury’s forecast period anymore. 

It’s some time, who knows when, in the 2030's. 

Brian Easton: The Post-Covid Economy

Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?

This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them in due course) but the Treasury are competent economists persuaded by the evidence, so other economists should be able to make reasonable guesses at what is bothering them

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Do you believe Grant Robertson?

One of the biggest problems Grant Robertson’s going to have delivering his sixth budget on Thursday is just getting us to believe to him.

This budget- we’ve been told- is going to be about infrastructure.

Hands up- who believes this Government when they announce they’re putting a huge of money into building infrastructure? 

Yeah, probably not a lot of us. 

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Hipkins is sounding like the leader of National

National should be sweating, because Chris Hipkins is stealing their lines. 

That is what struck me listening to his pre-budget speech today. His speech could’ve been delivered by the leader of the National Party.

It was in front of a business audience. He took a crack at the last Government- as if he wasn’t actually a part of Jacinda’s Government- saying “The reality is the Government was previously doing too much, too fast”.

And then he told us that economic growth was his priority. His budget would focus on three things: skills, science and infrastructure investment. 

Mike Hosking: We're writing a recipe for economic ruin

There was some sobering economic reality at my place yesterday.

My street had a truck vacuum in it, sucking all the crap out of the drains, so there was the obligatory 800 metres of cones and two stop go people.

Stop/go people have had a 28 percent wage rise on average this past year. I know this because I told you yesterday - the Seek job ad numbers tell us the 28 percent has taken them to about $46,000 a year.

Do you know that journalists - varies I assume from organisation to organisation - start in the low $40,000s, so flipping a stop/go sign is more valuable than journalism.

Weird, eh?

Bryce Edwards: Massive Wage Subsidy and Covid spending is under scrutinised

In the lead-up to the Budget, the Government has been on an offensive to promote the efficiency and quality of its $74 billion Covid Response and Recovery Fund -especially the Wage Subsidy Scheme component. This comes after criticisms and concerns from across the political spectrum over poor-quality spending, and suggestions that vested interests and business have been the main beneficiary of opaque and poor decision-making.

Good news about the Wage Subsidy Scheme

On Monday, the Ministry of Social Development released their report, “Who received the 2021 Covid-19 wage subsidies”. This highlighted the usefulness of last year’s subsidy, which amounted to $5 billion, selling it as having helped pay the wages of 47 per cent of those in jobs. The unprovable inference attached to this is that these jobs might have otherwise disappeared. The report also detailed the different demographics that benefitted from the scheme.

Frank Newman: Budget 2014

Last week Finance Minister. Bill English, delivered his 6th budget. It was a good one, from a number of perspectives. For the first time in six years the government’s books are forecast to return to surplus (albeit by a thin margin). Perhaps the most pleasing aspect of the budget is National’s clear statement of objectives in two key areas.

The first is to reduce net core Crown debt to 20%of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 2020. (GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in New Zealand.) Beyond 2020, the Government intends to maintain net debt within a range of around 10% to 20% of GDP, which will provide a buffer from economic shocks or natural disasters like the Christchurch earthquakes.

Frank Newman: Budget 2013

This years Budget has good news, but not for those who are expecting a handout. The good news is the government’s books are on track to return to surplus. That’s a remarkable achievement given the dire state of many of our trading partners, and the billions of dollars the government has contributed towards the rebuild of Christchurch.

Karl du Fresne: The elimination of poverty will just have to wait

The team of Key and English may go down as one of the more effective political partnerships of modern times. John Key is the schmoozer, the salesman. His incorrigibly sunny disposition infuriates a lot of people, who see it as smarmy and ingratiating. But it’s hard to argue with his poll ratings, which have held up extraordinarily well after one and a half terms during which the government has had to grapple with one crisis after another.

Marc Alexander: NZ Idle

The zero budget released last week was an exercise in managing perceptions rather than achieving anything of lasting value. While the buzzwords of ‘prudence’, ‘restrained’, and ‘sensible’ were bandied about in the tranche of media statements belching out of the Beehive, a closer inspection reveals what wasn’t done to get our economy off the critical list. 

For a start, nothing other than lip-service was done to realistically improve our woeful lack of productivity. With an average growth of a meagre 0.2% growth over the last seven years, it’s no wonder that wages have stagnated and, along with it, our living standards. Given that the major reason is our lack of being able to attract greater capitalization of labour (i.e. investing in technologies to improve productivity), the first thing that should have been tackled was our archaic levels of depreciation. Put simply, you cannot expect to compete with state of art word processors while thumping away on clunky type-writers. We need to depreciate our means of production faster and innovate technologically quicker.

Mike Butler: Deficit reveals cost of bad govt

Fed up with Finance Minister Bill English’s “death by 1000 cuts” Budgets, and disgusted with the whole range of commentators who believe in either big or bigger government, I went to Treasury’s Budget appropriations to see by how much I could reduce the deficit. This is what I have found.

In his Budget speech, English blamed a recession that started in 2008, the global financial crisis, and the Canterbury earthquake for the difficulties he faces as finance minister. I suggest the real culprit is the long shadow of barmy policy of successive governments, including his government.

Matthew Hooton: Greens eagerly eye finance portfolio

Next week is a job interview for Russel Norman. The Green Party co-leader has his eye on being minister of finance in two and a half years and he wouldn’t be the first Australian or ex-communist to achieve high political office in New Zealand.

Dr Norman is very conscious that achieving his goal requires the Green s to stay well above 10% in the polls and for David Shearer, David Cunliffe and David Parker, Shane Jones and Andrew Little or Grant Robertson to have confidence that making him finance minister would not cause an immediate crash in business and economic confidence.