Saturday, February 26, 2022

Clive Bibby: Inside a memory bank with no deposits

You don't have to be a brain surgeon to understand what the cranium of someone in cognitive decline looks like.

Consequently, those of us who have watched the recent press conferences involving the current President of the USA - particularly those since the Russian invasion of Ukraine - are alarmed to finally realise the fate of the Free World is in the hands of someone who has difficulty remembering where he lives.

Let's examine the reality of the relative positions of the two major super powers involved in this conflict.

It can be argued that Putin, having warned the West that his main concern is the presence of NATO forces on Russia's border, is only repeating the actions of JFK in responding to a similar threat from Russian missiles on Cuban soil way back in the 60s.

Thankfully, in that confrontation it was the Russians who backed down.

Having tried unsuccessfully to avoid a war using diplomatic channels, it doesn’t look as if the current Russian leadership is in any mood to be similarly humiliated by their arch enemy.

In case you’re wondering, although l am not an apologist for the actions of this madman, l do understand his reaction to the rejection of his overtures for a peaceful settlement. Unlike, the western nations, he doesn’t have to answer to his constituency back in Russia and is free to act on a whim. That is his main strength when deciding what to do next. He is accountable to nobody.

In fact, It does appear that this whole invasion has been planned based on a couple of Russian assessments of the anticipated opponent’s strength and, from a purely military strategy standpoint, they are hard to argue against. 

The first is that Joe Biden is a arguably the weakest US President in a generation.

His decisions since taking office have been marked by repeated capitulation to the radical environmental groups within his administration that have resulted in the US being in the unfortunate position of dependency on its adversaries for its supplies of energy. This is a complete turnaround from the position of strength (totally self sufficient in energy reserves) enjoyed under the Trump administration when it left office.

This failure of leadership has meant the US is in no position to ask other NATO members to boycott their own fuel supplies delivered by “guess who“ - The Vlad himself.

eg. Germany gets most of its imported energy by way of Russian gas so is not going to join any sanctions of those critical supplies. On the other hand, Russia earns about 40% of its foreign exchange supplying Europe with most of its energy through imports of Russian oil and gas.

Others have indicated they will follow Germany’s lead. While understandable, this lack of unity reduces the potency and effectiveness of what Biden is claiming to be the “ mother of all sanctions”. It is laughable.

The second is what amounts to a betrayal of a commitment by NATO to the defence of Ukraine in response to that nation agreeing to give up its arsenal of nuclear weapons - a relic of its time behind the Soviet Iron Curtain.

Putin has calculated that the NATO members would not send ground troops to defend Ukraine against an invading force. He has also banked on the probability of those same NATO states refusing air defensive cover as well that would effectively mean an inevitable victory for the invaders.

So far his assumptions have been proved to be sound assessments of his opponents strength and resolve. It could have and should have been so different. NATO has had plenty of warning of a pending invasion. They could have helped Ukraine build its defences in anticipation that the 150,000 Russian troops weren’t going home any time soon.

Moscow’s dictator has clearly been banking on NATO offering nothing more than loud barracking and finger wagging from the sidelines.

Sadly, that will not be enough to thwart Putin in his attempt to annex the whole country.

No one should be surprised by the invasion.

From a Russian perspective it is all going according to plan.

In my humble opinion, the blood of all courageous Ukrainians sacrificed in defence of their homeland will be on Biden’s hands as much as the aggressor in this conflict.

That’s what you get when you choose a clown to lead the Free World.

Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.


Alexandra Corbett Dekanova said...

The situation in Ukraine was not black - white. Both sides broke MinskI and MinskII agreements, Ukrainian government did not get rid of paramilitary troops with clear neonazi character and failed to build a stabile democracy and the state went from bad to worse economically. The only hope for Ukrainian people are negotiations with Russia based on their future neutrality.

Doug Longmire said...

Well said Clive.
Unfortunately, Putin holds all the Aces and can turn off the gas to Western Europe whenever he wants. So there will be lots of hot air, but little direct action by Western Europe.
As for the Dopey Joe situation ... The US is also very weak.

Mudbayripper said...

If nothing else, this long anticipated invasion by Russia highlights the deadly consequences of the free world's obsession with woke ideologies. Guess what Putin don't care about climate change.

witwot said...

Perhaps if Obama had come to the Ukraine's defense in "15 at Crimea this situation would never have evolved.
The USA had a clear pact to help defend Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine to give up all the nukes the Russians left lying around.This was enacted back in "90"s under Reagan.

Ewan McGregor said...

It would appear that the writer here is an admirer of the strategic astuteness of ‘Vlad’ Putin, a sentiment that looks rather misplaced at this point. Pretty much all of Putin’s assumptions now appear to be not so smart.

There is no relevance here to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Then Kennedy had to deal with inter-continental ballistic nuclear missiles being secretly placed on America’s doorstep, and he dealt with it with firmness, by restraint and the preparedness to make a concession, thus giving Khrushchev wriggle room. The missiles were removed and not a shot was fired, nor a drop of blood spilt.
Putin has no fear of NATO being on Russia’s boarder in the event of Ukraine joining – two bordering countries are already members anyway. NATO is a defensive alliance and has, since its formation in 1949, given Europe the longest period of peace in its history, now broken.

The belittlement here of US president Biden is one thing, as cheap as it is. But the claim that Biden will have as much Ukrainian blood on his hands as Putin is a dreadful smear. I find that appalling.
Ewan McGregor