Peter Winsley: Russia has two ways out of the Ukraine war that avoids economic ruination....

.....Neither or them involve nuclear weapons

Vladimir Putin’s Russia cannot afford to lose its war with Ukraine because of the economic loss and political upheaval this would cause. Nor can it afford to win this war because repairing the damage and dealing with the aftermath would cripple its own economy. Putin still has some options, however nuclear weapons are not one of them.

Don Brash: We are in grave danger

Not since the Cuban missile crisis exactly 60 years ago has the world been in such danger.

And that’s not just my own view: early in October, US President Joe Biden said that the risk of nuclear Armageddon is at the highest level since the Cuban missile crisis. He was right.

As I write, Russia’s conventional military forces are being forced to retreat on many fronts and Ukrainian forces have destroyed a key bridge linking Russia to Crimea. Russian conventional weapons are proving no match for the weapons supplied to Ukraine by the US and other NATO allies. Russia is having to field relatively inexperienced troops following an unpopular conscription.

Point of Order: War means change

More than most things, you don’t control war. It controls you.

Something about having to commit your life and treasure to a cause, concentrates the mind. Particularly when the cause is run by other people. Established relationships and certainties go to one side, until the immediate problems of survival on reasonable terms are solved.

We’re reminded of this by the latest Russian announcements (carefully curated and dissected by the admirable Institute for the Study of War) preparing for the possibility of the abandonment of Kherson in south-western Ukraine, retreat behind the Dnieper river (sorry folks, wars can’t defeat geography) and the destruction of the river’s dams to obstruct the Ukrainian army’s advance.

Point of Order: Ukraine war to end – but what then?

With every pause in the Ukrainian counteroffensive, talk of stalemate pops up. But pay more attention to the currents, than the surface froth.

So nice to get some quality thinking in the Hoover Institution’s Strategika publication. First, Niall Ferguson with a typically thought-provoking insight into war as a continuation of economics by other means.

He argues that Russia is just too poor to overwhelm a Ukraine backed by the rich West.

Point of Order: You can’t keep a good man down

Or a bad one up, it would seem.

Jeremy Corbyn has reminded us why Britain’s Labour party dispensed with his leadership after defeat by Boris Johnson in 2019, when he offered his thinking: on war in general and Ukraine in particular.

We can share common ground with his platitude that it is “disastrous … for the safety and security of the whole world”. Like him we might want the UN to be “more centre stage”. While being a touch more inquisitive as to why it languishes in the wings.

Point of Order: In politics there are lies.

And then there are lies

Russia’s foreign ministry recently put out a handy three minute video to commemorate (celebrate is probably not the word) the 83rd anniversary of the signing of the Hitler-Stalin alliance on 23 August 1939.

As befits professionals, they try to avoid direct lies and use as much of the truth as possible. Inconvenient facts (like the division of Eastern Europe into zones of occupation, deportation and extermination) are omitted.

But you have to pause at the concluding sentence: ‘Thanks to the Soviet-German non-aggression pact, the War began on strategically more advantageous borders for the Soviet Union, and hundreds of thousands of lives were saved’

So much to discuss.

Dr David Lillis: Reflections on reading today's media

 

The Truth Hurts but Lies Hurt More

As we digest our daily online and televised news, we may conjecture whether humanity will in time become more humane and more tolerant. Is it too much to expect kinder, more-forbearing society in the future? Perhaps we will evolve to become more forgiving and inclusive but we have reason to fear that people will continue to fight each other and grandstand on behalf of their own groups – their own sports team, religion, country or their own skin color. 

Is it also naïve to hope for balanced media; one that provides critical detail without attempting to force particular perspectives or agendas on the public? Of course, it is very hard to gauge the extent to which the world’s media influences, either for good or for the worse. But, surely, more balanced, unbiased media would help to reduce distrust and contribute significantly to good will.

Clive Bibby: When all else fails, bail out while you're ahead.

When reading the latest news about the war in Ukraine, I couldn't help noticing the contrasting leadership styles of the main participants.

It doesn't require a military strategist to work out the main contributing factors to either success or failure on the battlefield.

But we need to understand the ramifications of domestic policies in the respective countries before we rush to judgement on which side holds the upper hand and who has the most to lose.

Chris Trotter: Our Least Worse Option.

There are moments in history when the essential powerlessness of our leaders stands exposed for all their people to see. Moments when they are struck forcefully by the brutal realisation that they have no good options – only the least worse ones. The manner in which they respond to these moments is critical.

Volodymyr Zelensky, for example, presented with the reality of Russian forces rolling across Ukraine’s borders at multiple points, had to accept the reality that his worst nightmare was now upon him. The man who had campaigned on promises of peace, now faced war with an enemy the whole world expected to be rumbling through his capital city within three days.

The Americans famously offered Zelensky a ride out of harm’s way. He refused. Faced with no good options, he chose what was, morally, the least worse: he stayed where he was. Outnumbered and outgunned, he nevertheless vowed to defend his homeland and his people.

Clive Bibby: Architects of Peace

I can’t imagine that the future teaching of history - either in this country’s primary and secondary schools or at higher levels in our universities- will include any mention of the name, Prince Klemens von Metternich - arguably the greatest statesman of the 19th century who was personally responsible for a world without wars that lasted for 100 years.

During my time attending  the state institutions for learning, history was one of the few subjects that appealed to me as a topic that provided the answers to questions about our own survival as a species. It still does but tragically the history books of yesteryear seem to be absent from or not used in modern classrooms. This act of vandalism is part of a modern trend that we will regret, especially when it is replaced with deliberate indoctrination of alternative theory rather than facts.

Ross Meurant: War With China and Russia?

The trouble with Elections, is invariably they encourage utterances from some who want to be a political leader, to say pretty dumb things.

Boris Johnson and President Biden are classics- too many examples to bother reciting here but both, in my view, seek to deflect poor polling back home by promoting chaos in another country.

In the case of America, this model has also, long been adopted to ensure jobs back home within the Military Industrial Complex.

Australian Defence Minister Dutton’s recent, “Prepare for war with China and Russia”, also fits into this category – in my assessment.  Afterall, its looking to be a close election in Oz.

Perhaps if Aussie had paid more attention to Solomon Islands?  Too late now. 

Karl du Fresne: Media freedom in New Zealand and how we differ from Putin's Russia

The tragedy in Ukraine illustrates with striking clarity the importance of a free and independent press.

People frequently express the naïve hope that the Russian people will rise up and depose the fascist war criminal Vladimir Putin, but that won’t happen as long as he exerts almost total control of the media.

Even in the digital age, most Russians get their information from state-controlled sources – mostly the TV news. That enables Putin and his apparatchiks to manipulate public opinion by bombarding the country with misinformation.

As a result, most Russians are convinced the invasion of Ukraine is a “special military operation” undertaken with the noble purpose of liberating the country from Nazis, drug-runners and terrorists. Or, as an alternative justification, that the Ukrainian government is a puppet regime of Western powers hostile to the beloved motherland. Failing that, there’s the rationale that the invasion was necessary to protect the Russian-speaking minority from genocide at the hands of Ukrainian nationalists. Or how about the argument that Ukraine is rightly part of Russia anyway? Take your pick.

Kate Hawkesby: I hope more Russians see Putin's lies for what they are

 

I hold out hope that media reports that Russia’s ugly war could be over in about 10 days prove true. 

I also hold out hope that claims peace talks are working, prove to be true. Because even if this does wrap up after a month, which in the grand scheme of wars seems a relatively short time, it has nonetheless been utterly heart breaking, painful and abhorrent to watch. And that’s part of the problem, we’ve seen it all unfold in front of us for the past 3 weeks like a horror show we just can’t switch off. 

Clive Bibby: A betrayal of the worst kind

A key item of last night's TVNews put this whole horrible Ukrainian atrocity in perspective. 

It was the first time that the main protagonists have been shown in their true colours - one, the brave Ukrainians desperately calling for meaningful help from those supposed allies who have the capacity to give it in all its forms; the fair weather friends (Biden and his NATO mates) who could change the course of this war in an instant but steadfastly refuse to do so; and of course the aggressor Putin who has calculated that his plans for victory, based on his powerful opponents unwillingness to engage, will prove to be correct.

It is a sad commentary showing just how accurate Trump’s assessment of The Modern NATO really was. He is quoted some years ago saying that, in its current form, it was “obsolete”.

Oliver Hartwich: The economic consequences of the war

Putin’s war is a tragedy for Ukraine. Yet its economic implications will be felt far beyond Ukraine’s borders for years to come.

Russia’s actions have set in motion a chain of events that could plunge the world into a serious economic crisis.

The war is not only fought in Ukraine but also in the world’s energy markets.

Interdependencies are strong. Parts of Europe rely on Russian oil and gas, just as Russia relies on energy export revenues. The US and UK announced embargoes on Russian goods this week, and the Kremlin threatened to shut off Europe’s gas supply.

Energy prices will rise as the West scrambles to find alternative fuel suppliers, even in countries hostile to the US like Iran and Venezuela. From US$90 a barrel in mid-February, oil has risen to around US$130 today. It could rise even further.

Melanie Phillips: Ukraine first — Israel next?

The Biden administration is poised to surrender to Iran. Israel is on its own against a genocidal regime.

The invasion of Ukraine has sounded a red alert for Israel, and also presented it with an acute problem.

Israel enjoys warm relations with Ukraine, identifying with it as a small state under attack simply because it exists.

Yet it’s essential that Israel does nothing to provoke Russia. For Israel has flown hundreds of sorties against Iranian assets in Syria. Russia backs Iran in Syria. Russia has however looked the other way while Israel bombs Iranian targets.

If Russia were to withdraw this tacit permission, Israel would be at the mercy of Iran on its doorstep.

Henry Armstrong: Democracy? What Democracy? Who Is The Biggest Hypocrite Of Them All?

The Western world has been quick to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine, one of the former “buffer” states of Russia under the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), and claimed to be historically, culturally and spiritually part of Russia.

I too condemn any invasion of a sovereign territory by a stronger power using (in this instance) military force. Most of the current generation of New Zealanders have no understanding or experience of wars, be they big or small. That is a blessing. But there are still many of us who have experienced the trauma, devastation, loss of life and futility of armed conflict - and it is very unpleasant indeed.

Major international conflicts usually involve multiple countries. But most 21^st century conflicts involve either very few or are internal conflicts where local dissidents, unreceptive or angry about their particular government’s policies and mandates, decide enough is enough and commence protests, demonstrations, insurrection and ultimately, armed insurgency. Many civil wars follow this process of escalation.

Victor Davis Hanson: The Crowded Road to Kyiv

To retain our deterrence abroad, we must tighten our belts at home, pump oil and gas, start to balance our budget, junk wokeism as a nihilist indulgence, and recalibrate our military. 

One of the oddest commentaries about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the boilerplate reaction that “borders can’t change in modern Europe” or “this does not happen in the 21st century.” 

But why in the world should the 21st century be exempt from the pathologies of the past 20 centuries? Are we smarter than the Romans? More innovative than the Florentines? Do we have more savvy leaders than Lincoln or Churchill? Are they more mellifluous than Demosthenes? Does anyone now remember that some 130,000 were slaughtered just 30 years ago in the former Yugoslavia, as NATO planes bombed Belgrade and nuclear America and Russia almost squared off? 

NZCPR Newsletter: Lessons for New Zealand

The shock invasion of the Ukraine serves as a grim reminder of the fragility of freedom and democracy in the face of powerful totalitarian aggressors.

The leadership shown by the President of the Ukraine, the former actor Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the bravery of the Ukrainian people, who have taken up arms to defend their country, stands in sharp contrast to the seeming impotence of the West. While supplies of weapons to support the ‘people’s army’ and sanctions against Vladimir Putin and Russia are all-important, as the aggressor unleashes its military might, the Ukrainians are effectively standing alone.

Many lessons are emerging from this deadly conflict.

Mike Hosking: The world's reaction to the Ukraine invasion gives me hope

 

In the midst of war, what an uplifting week it's been in terms of a world that, despite all its many worries, can still largely unite and offer hope. 

Never in my lifetime have I seen such a coordinated, effective, and immediate response to a crisis. 

Normally when war breaks out, the world divides, the sanctions are piecemeal, the hot air is voluminous, but not this time. 

You can't buy an Apple product, H&M are closed, Maersk aren’t delivering, Boeing are out, oil and gas are gone and Volvo is closed. They are but a handful of the myriad of commercial operators who have cut ties.