Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Frank Newman: Labour out, National/ACT in. Latest Roy Morgan poll.

The most recent Roy Morgan has more bad news for Jacinda Ardern and her Labour Party. Labour is now polling below the support it received at the 2017 election and the Labour/Greens block at 44%, 6% behind National/ACT.

Labour has fallen 0.5% points since November to 35.5%. The Greens were down 2% at 8.5%. National was up 5% to 31.5%. ACT continued to rise, up 1% to 18.5%, which is contrary to expectations that it would lose votes to National under Chris Luxon.  The National/ACT block is a clear 6% ahead of Labour/Greens.

The Maori Party barely registered at 1%, and would be irrelevant to the makeup of the next government. NZ First registered just 2%, down 2.5% and on these numbers would not make it back into parliament.

Based on the poll, Labour would lose 19 of its 65 MPs: Eight list MPs and 11 electorate MPs, including senior members Willow-Jean Prime and Tāmati Coffey. The full list are:

List MPs: Tāmati Coffey (number 37 on Labour's list), Naisi Chen (38), Liz Craig (41), Ibrahim Omer (42), Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki (44), Rachel Brooking (46), Helen White (48) and Angela Roberts (50).

Electorate MPs: Shanan Halbert (Northcote), Emily Henderson (Whangarei), Terisa Ngobi (Otaki), Glen Bennett (New Plymouth), Anna Lorck (Tukituki), Jamie Strange (Hamilton East), Ginny Andersen (Hutt South), Sarah Pallett (Ilam), Jo Luxton (Rangitata), Rachel Boyack (Nelson) and Willow-Jean Prime (Northland).

Two MPs would lose their electorate seats, but retain their place in Parliament through the party list. They are: Vanushi Walters (Upper Harbour) and Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakeikei).

At number 35 on the party list, Angie Warren-Clark is the most at risk sitting list MP. Similarly, the most marginal electorates would be Wairarapa (Kieran McAnulty) and Hamilton West (Gaurav Sharma).        

The electorate predictions assume the fall in party vote is reflected in the electorate vote with adjustment for local MP support, no change to the list rankings of the existing MPs, the Labour Party retaining six of the seven Maori seats, and a wastage party vote consistent with that at the last general election.

Roy Morgan states, "The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 3.5pts in December to 98 to be in negative territory for the first time since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office over four years ago in October 2017.

"In December only 42.5% (down 3.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 44.5% (unchanged) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’."

Labour/Greens continued to be popular with women aged under 50 with 59% compared to only 34% support for National/ ACT. There is no bias for women aged 50+ with an even split between National/ACT and Labour/Greens.

National/ACT continued to be most popular with men of all ages, particularly those aged 50+. ACT was more popular than National with men aged under 50, while National was more popular with men aged 50+.

That would suggest that parties gain the most support from voters who are most like their party leaders. Jacinda Ardern's greatest strength is her appeal to young women. A change in Labour's leadership, as has been speculated, would very much change their dynamic with woman voters.

This latest poll confirms the continued decline in support for Labour. It's a clear signal from the electorate that their love affair with Jacinda Ardern and Labour is over.

If an election were to be held today, Labour would be in the position it was in 2017 when it relied on others to form a government. The difference being NZ First would not be in the mix as it has not reached the 5% threshold. Labour would rely only on the Greens which leaves Labour tainted. This will become more evident in 2022 when Labour/Greens introduce carbon reduction legislation.

At some point, the inevitability of job losses will resonate within the Labour caucus. The question is whether the 19 who will lose their jobs are prepared to raise concerns about the speed of the Party's radical reform agenda. Perhaps Jacinda Ardern will see the writing on the wall and will pull back on radical reform such as Three Waters and He Puapua, that's assuming she has the fortitude to stand up to her powerful Maori Caucus on these issues. 

 View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>


Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.


Janine said...

Personally Frank, as a very new kid on the block to the subject of politics but now with two years of observation and research under my belt,this is how I see it:

Party politics is not working in New Zealand. We need a change. I watched Luxon today and read his press release. He was talking about his approach to the Maori issues and told his audience to basically " suck it up". That's my interpretation anyway. He is only altering course a smidgeon to Ardern.
We are always voting for the lesser of two evils. That's not good enough.

Ardern also tells us to accept her agenda. The sole "source of truth".
She " bought" out taxpayer funded media and the opposition said nothing.

Luxon and Seymour dismissed OUR( New Zealanders) protesters as " fringe members of society" as did Ardern. Our politicians seem to stand for parliament with pre- conceived notions of what they personally want to achieve which do not relate in any way to the people who elect them like myself.

The Greens are not an environmental party just opportunists.

I will no longer be voting for one of our main parties but I will be voting.

A political system like the Swiss is the only way to achieve true democracy.

I am sure there are many who have trod this same path of disillusionment before me.

DeeM said...

Only a few days ago TVOne announced a poll showing the opposite. Labour/Greens could still form a government with Nats/ACT about 6% behind. And this poll had ACT on 11.5% thereabouts which is a big difference from 18.5% in the Roy Morgan poll.

Makes you wonder about polls if they can produce such different results. Dare I suggest that some may be biased to produce a result more favourable to the government. Would be good to see some analysis of how different polls have performed at election time.

Based on the above, it's hard to know if we should be jumping up and down or staying firmly seated.

Terry Morrissey said...

I sure cannot see the PM having the strength of character to stand up to her maori caucus. After all, she didn't have the guts to face the protestors at Parliament or anywhere else.Always avoids opposition.Particularly unscripted questioning without her spin team.
Great to see the list of potential losers. I can't see any in those lists which I would say have achieved anything constructive in the last four years.
I wait to see if anything meaningful will emerge from the other parties.
So far they haven't really inspired me to settle on a decision for my vote.They don't seem to have any real conviction or drive to get rid of what has been introduced by the labour cult, or give people confidence that they will roll back the mandates, separatism or apartheid.

Mobfiz said...

The huge dissatisfaction in the electorate will result in new right wing parties. This vote splitting will be a de facto vote for the left. Luxon need only do one thing to guarantee success, and thwart new parties - that is to reinforce Paul Goldsmith's view - very tentatively expressed - that colonisation was a huge positive for Maori, ending centuries of savagery and slavery.

Ray S said...

It's way too early for Luxon to make any radical or even bold statements about what National might take to the polls. The same for Seymour for that matter.
If National adopt "steady as she goes" middle of the road with policies that reflect that, then we will see Cindy carry the day sadly.

Perhaps National and ACT could pool resources and make offers the media cant refuse. Without the media, getting the message out is nigh on impossible.

Basil Walker said...

The damage done to New Zealand as a nation because of the separatist direction favouring Maori , has with huge focus by Labour demanded that a party with strength and conviction repeal and quash every Maori separatist law and agendas in the forthcoming election .
I believe the election will reward which ever political party who has the courage to unite the whole nation.

Basil Walker

Peter said...

Some say it is too early for Luxon to take a stance. Some of us sighed with relief when Simon then Judy were voted out. The nation deserves better. Nice to see people pointing out the thin margins. The way to be heard is to speak up: the way to be seen is to stand up; the way to be appreciated is get out! David Seymour does speak up ; but Chris Luxon has been so meek he is not making impact!!! This is politics not big business. The nation needs more.
Maori are just fortunate there is no recorded history of their ways. Paleaontology shows how they desecrated the bush on the east coast of the South Island. The Waitaha inhabited the Waitaki Valley; yet never received any money from the Treaty Settlement of Ngai Tahu.
It is time for bold moves from the right. Maori are 15% of the population when it suits them. Time for politics to represent the 85% who have made the nation.

Chip said...

Right on Peter