Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Frank Newman: Mood of discontent - Labour headed for a crushing defeat according to latest Roy Morgan poll

The most recent Roy Morgan poll (7 March 2022) shows Jacinda Ardern and Labour would be tossed out of office if an election were held today.

Labour's popularity has continued to slide, down a further 1% to 32% since the last poll was taken at the end of January, while its roommate the Greens rose 0.5% to 11%.

National climbed a further 3% to 38% and is now 6% points clear of Labour. Most of that gain was at the expense of ACT, which was down 2% to 11.5%.

That gives the National/ACT coalition 49.5%, some 4.5% ahead of the Labour/Green/Maori Party coalition block at 45%.

Based on these results a National/ACT coalition would have 63 seats, and a Labour/Greens/Maori Party alliance would have 57 seats.

The Maori Party was down 0.5% to 2%, a result that shows it continues to receive little support, even from Maori. On this basis, it would have three MPs (assuming it retains its one Maori electorate seat), one more than it has currently.

On the latest figures, Labour would lose 23 of its 65 seats in Parliament. It would win just 28 of the 72 electorate seats (6 Maori and 22 general electorates) and 14 list seats, 42 in total.

A number of high profile Labour MPs would lose their electorate seats, but regain their place in parliament via the Party list. These include cabinet Ministers Stuart Nash (Napier), Damien O'Connor (West Coast-Tasman), Kiri Allen (East Coast), and Chief Government Whip Kieran McAnulty (Wairarapa). All of these seats had previously been considered safe.

Labour MPs that are likely to lose their electorate seats but are not high enough on the party list to retain their place in Parliament are: Willow-Jean Prime (Northland), Jo Luxton (Rangitata),  Jamie Strange (Hamilton East),  Ginny Andersen (Hutt South),  Shanan Halbert (Northcote),  Rachel Boyack (Nelson),  Sarah Pallett (Ilam), Emily Henderson (Whangarei), Terisa Ngobi (Otaki), Glen Bennett (New Plymouth), and Anna Lorck (Tukituki).

Eleven Labour list MPs would be out of Parliament: Jan Tinetti (32), Marja Lubeck (34), Angie Warren-Clark (35), Tāmati Coffey (37), Naisi Chen (38), Liz Craig (41), Ibrahim Omer (42), Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki (44), Rachel Brooking (46), Helen White (48) and Angela Roberts (50).

The most marginal Labour electorate is Mount Roskill, held by cabinet Minister Michael Wood who recently referred to the anti-mandate protesters in Wellington as a 'river of filth". Priyanca Radhakrishnan would be Labour's next list MP to lose their seat should party support continue to fall.

The electorate predictions assume the fall in party vote is reflected in the electorate vote with adjustment for local MP support, no change to the list rankings of the existing MPs, the Labour Party retaining six of the seven Maori seats, and a wastage party vote consistent with that at the last general election.

None of the minnow parties registered enough support to gain a seat in Parliament. NZ First was the highest at 2%.  

Confidence declines further

The slide in Labour Party support reflects declining confidence in the government. When asked if New Zealand was heading in the right direction, 48% said it was heading in the wrong direction, compared to 42% who said it was heading in the right direction (10% did not say). This is the lowest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017.

Gender support

Labour and the Greens continue to attract disproportionate support from women (63% of Labour's vote comes from women).

Roy Morgan state, "The overall results for the genders show that nearly half of women, 49%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction' compared to just over a third of men, 35.5%. In contrast, just over two-fifths of women, 41% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction' compared to over half of men (54%)."

This latest poll confirms a significant shift in voter sentiment since the 2020 general election. It's a clear signal from the electorate that their love affair with Jacinda Ardern and Labour is over. The question now is how opposition parties position themselves to take advantage of the mood of discontent.

The Roy Morgan Poll can be viewed HERE.

Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.


DeeM said...

Sounds encouraging Frank. But then, like the past few months, other polls come out with quite different results.
The NZ Tax Payers Union released a poll recently and it had Labour-Greens still forming a government.
I'm sure we'll get the TV1 and TV3 commissioned polls soon - be interesting to see what they predict, though I could have a pretty good guess.

If polls taken roughly at the same time jump around a lot in their results the public will start to wonder which, if any, they should believe.

Janine said...

I can't get really excited. Apparently, according to several National Party supporters and blog commenters who spoke with Luxon, he is not apparently willing to discuss He Puapua and is not overly concerned about it's implications.

I have also written to National regarding some of these major issues. No reply. Therefore they won't be getting my vote.
I suspect his gain in the polls is more a disenchantment with Ardern than some personal charisma of his.

There is also the small matter of his support for Mallard against the protesters....This issue is yet to be resolved.

Jigsaw said...

But nowhere can I find a %age of the uncommitted- so that the various %ages of the various parties make little sense in that context.
HOW BIG WERE THE don't know brigade??

boudicca said...

Michael Wood is my MP. I'll be telling him where to go next year

Ian P said...

I believe that none of these polls include Kiwis overseas, but stand to be corrected. If that is the case, Labour would now get little support from them. Traditionally, special votes favoured Labour - quite the opposite now, I would think. Labour are, and deserve to be, going to be consigned to history as our most tyrannical and undemocratic government ever. They have totally lost the trust of the people, as have most of our politicians, unfortunately.

Rebel in disguise said...

Suppose the polls are correct?.. the results have an affect for the future but not for now!! She has 18 months left to go roughly so can you imagine the damage that she can do in that time… to hell with the polls we need to concentrate on getting her out now… we can’t use gg because she’s a Ardern cohort so we need to take it through the courts?.. how difficult can it be to prove she is treasonous!!!!!!!!!!