Tuesday, June 28, 2022

Clive Bibby: When all else fails, bail out while you're ahead.

When reading the latest news about the war in Ukraine, I couldn't help noticing the contrasting leadership styles of the main participants.

It doesn't require a military strategist to work out the main contributing factors to either success or failure on the battlefield.

But we need to understand the ramifications of domestic policies in the respective countries before we rush to judgement on which side holds the upper hand and who has the most to lose.

At first glance, it would appear that a Ukranian defensive effort against the overwhelming numerical superiority of the Russian forces will succeed or fail based on the integrity of an American commitment to the supply of weaponry that will provide some form of parity on the ground and in the air.

But, in spite of all the bluster from Biden and NATO leadership promising they will give Zelensky all the firepower he is asking for, the slowness and pitiful response from these same fair weather friends suggests that they are already accepting an outcome that is very different to the one the valiant Ukranians had in mind.

You only have to look at the supply chain of much needed Western artillery weapons in order to realise that their deliveries will very probably be too little, too late.

Why would the Alliance allow this to happen? Is it deliberate?

My guess is that those democracies who are in a position to make it happen are looking more to their domestic audiences where strategic decisions that will benefit them personally at home are so much more important.

It would appear that Biden and Co are prepared to influence a quick settlement of the Ukranian dispute even if it includes giving Putin virtually everything he wants before this war escalates into one fought against a nation led by a desperate, mentally and physically ill man with nothing to lose.

From the American's point of view, the last thing they need is to be fighting wars against a coalition of major adversaries on two fronts. One should not underestimate the interest being shown in the outcome of the current war by the greater foe, China who are keeping their power dry while considering their positions.

Meanwhile Biden in particular will be desperately trying to find a way out of the current conflict with one eye on the mid terms. In that context, it looks as if the Ukranians are being set up as sacrificial lambs.

Hope I'm wrong but if I were a betting man, I'd be putting money on a "cut and run" policy emerging from the White House sooner rather than later.

Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.


Anonymous said...

In June 2022 the Royal United Services Institute in London reported that the Ukraine has 250,000 men in its army plus 400,000 conscripts; and that Russia’s forces in the Ukraine total 200,000 men including the Donetsk and Lugansk militias and the Chechens.

KP said...

"led by a desperate, mentally and physically ill man with nothing to lose. "

Are you talking about Biden or Zelensky here? Putin has been quite upfront about what is happening and why since before the invasion, it is sad that the Yanks did nothing but goad him on.

Zelensky was going to lose from the start, its 40M people against 140M, and economics wins wars. He had no choice, having been put in power by the Yanks and remains there because of them. He is a puppet.

You would be blind not to see the Yanks want to bleed Russia dry at the expense of some unknown Semi-Euro country no-one gives a shit about so they can tackle China next.

You are right, however, about the Yanks bailing out. Zelenski is down to demanding Poland send any Ukrainian men aged 20-60 back so they can be conscripted, so he has run out of cannon fodder. Putin will decide when it ends, he has been incisive and extremely clever about the who operation.

Unknown said...

I agree with you KP the west has continued to prod Russia since 2014 Ukranian coup by the US. since then Ukraine has been shelling the people in Donbas killing approx 18000 to date and were massing for an invasion of the Donbass region when Putin moved in.