As the Reserve Bank raises the Official Cash Rate again to 3.5%, the eighth successive increase,with more to come, in the effort to drive down inflation, the political mood has darkened, too.
A glance at the headlines point to the symptoms why this is happening: “Housing market still firmly in retreat”, “Consumer demand for personal loans spikes as households feel the pinch”
The backlash is being felt in government circles and is reflected in how even the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has gone to the lengths of attacking National’s pledge to cut taxes, labelling it as the same kind of policy as the UK Tory government’s disastrous economic package which sent the financial markets last week into a panic and has seemingly damaged beyond repair the rule of new PM Liz Truss.
It is perhaps not surprising that political polls here are reflecting how the fall in support for the Ardern government has steepened. The latest Roy Morgan poll, for example, shows Labour’s support plummeted 5.5 points from its August sampling, and for the first time in this term is below 30 points, at 29.5.
As David Farrar says on Kiwiblog:
It is perhaps not surprising that political polls here are reflecting how the fall in support for the Ardern government has steepened. The latest Roy Morgan poll, for example, shows Labour’s support plummeted 5.5 points from its August sampling, and for the first time in this term is below 30 points, at 29.5.
As David Farrar says on Kiwiblog:
“This is the first poll to show Labour in the 20s, an extraordinary decline from the 50% they got at the election. They would lose a massive 27 MPs on this poll. They would lose every single List MP, even if they lost three electorate seats”.
Not much joy there for Labour’s aspiring backbenchers, though perhaps a touch of schadenfreude for erstwhile Labour MP Gaurav Sharma.
While Labour’s support has dropped like a stone, National has not gained accordingly. It has risen only 0.5% to 36.5. The big improvers are ACT up two points to 12.5, and the Greens 3.5 to 12.5.
But together the parties of the right would have 62 seats against those of the left at 42, enough to govern.
There is little doubt that the economic pain inflicted by the cost-of-living crisis is taking its toll on the Arden government’s credibility as economic managers, while Ardern herself still shines, particularly while she is abroad carrying the torch for NZ.
The latest polling suggests that even she can do little to staunch the blood-letting Labour may suffer when NZ next goes to the polls.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
2 comments:
I suggest that the road to salvation lies in non left voters giving ACT their support and their votes.
Right now it is the only Party to show a sense of purpose and an understanding of the issues which concern New Zealanders.
Some of our current problems are a result of the diffidence of the National Party in addressing problems (e.g. educational decline) when they did hold the reins of government.
Whether or not you agree with all of ACT's policies you at least know where ACT stands and what it will do if given the power and the opportunity.
I say give them a chance to show what they can do.
They have to be better than the mob we have now!
'lose every single List MP' - would be a music to my ears if this applies to green too. my blood boils when i see gg sitting there and pushing any agenda without the mandate of the public.
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