Thursday, January 26, 2023

Cam Slater: Polls Show Why Ardern Had to Go

The Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll gave us the first indication of Labour’s perilous polling and the precipitous decline in Jacinda Ardern’s own rating, showing for the first time net negative ratings. Now Roy Morgan has delivered another reference point that shows how precarious their position is:

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Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for December 2022 shows support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party had collapsed by a massive 22.5% points to 27.5% in just over two years since the 2020 New Zealand Election in October 2020.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her impending resignation from the top job last week and stated the reason for resigning was that “I just don’t have enough in the tank for another four years” with New Zealand facing a general election later this year in October.
Support for current governing Labour/ Greens coalition was on 38.5% in December 2022, down 19.4% points since the 2020 New Zealand election. In contrast support for the Greens has increased slightly since the last election up by 3.1% points to 11%.
The major opposition parties have been large beneficiaries from the slide in support for Labour with a potential National/ Act NZ coalition up 16.3% points to 49.5% since the 2020 New Zealand Election. Support for the main opposition National is up 9.4% points to 35% and support for Act NZ has increased by 6.9% points to 14.5%.
National/ Act NZ coalition on track for a clear majority of 65 seats at the election
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 65 seats in the new Parliament compared to 50 seats for Labour/Greens and a further five seats for the Maori Party.


Roy Morgan
Labour and the Greens just can’t get there, and Ardern’s Government is plumbing the depths of Andrew Little’s Opposition.
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Of course, you also can’t count out Winston Peters. NZ First is on 4% in this poll. But the real damage is being done, not by politicians’ actions, but rather by the poor outlook for the economy. Business confidence is at an all-time low.

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Chris Hipkins has a massive job ahead of him to turn around Ardern’s legacy of poll slumps. But the word is the staffers are all up for the fight, lending credence to my view that Chris Hipkins will go low and go nasty for a brutal and vicious election campaign. The reality is that it is all he knows.
There is literally nothing that Labour can do in six months legislatively, so that leaves massive bribes at the budget… and the nasty.

I think I am going to enjoy this campaign.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE


GRUNTER said...

Hipkins is toast. Why did he even agree to take on a no-win job? The only personal gain is to say on his CV "NZ Prime Minister" (for maybe 9 months). He's about to be confronted with a massive financial crisis and an even bigger COVID and Covid Jab reckoning that will put him personally on the firing line. Plus he has a Deputy PM already accusing Luxon of being a racist for daring to start a debate on co-governance. I can smell the toast burning already....!

Anonymous said...

Now, now, Cam...just when I was starting to accept you as a like-minded person. But lowball scraps are not my thing. Not saying you're wrong though and truth is I will probably enjoy it too!