Friday, January 20, 2023

Cam Slater: She’s Gone, What Next?

We all know that Jacinda Ardern has gone. She’s contrived to leave in April and set an election date that suits her: October 14. The news may have boosted champagne sales at the Auckland Viaduct yesterday, but what happens next?

Will Labour really make it to October 14 or will the factions split the party asunder? I guess we won’t know what that looks like until we see who Labour’s caucus chooses for its new leader and deputy leader.

What we do know is that Grant Robertson has said no. So who can step up?

Despite having a rather large caucus, not a single other Labour MP features in any Preferred Prime Minister poll. To make matters worse, the last time a leadership change happened in the governing party and they went on to win the subsequent election was in 1940 when Peter Fraser replaced Michael Joseph Savage in the midst of the Second World War.

Let’s just say the talent pool is exceedingly shallow. A rational party should probably choose David Parker as the leader. He’s sensible, but he comes across as rather bitter.

Nanaia Mahuta and Willie Jackson may well have designs, but their election as leader and deputy would be electoral poison.

Megan Woods, the caucus pie aficionado, is despised by many so doesn’t have much support.

Could Chris Hipkins step up? Possibly, but as the release of Thomas Cranmer’s Covid files shows, he is now hopelessly compromised.

What about Michael Wood? I truly hope they choose him because then we can run the lines that he’s going to do to New Zealand what he has done with roading. He’ll put road blocks in the way of everything, crater the economy like he’s cratered our roads, there will be road works, cones and working parties everywhere, but everything will ultimately grind to a halt.

I’m really scraping the barrel now with possible other pretenders. They are just hopeless and lack any depth at all.

I guess we wait, and celebrate that finally the oppressive nature of Ardern’s totalitarianism has been lifted, even if only for a few days.

Then when the new leaders are ensconced, we will see if they decide to pull those policies and platforms that are toxic.

Could we see an axing of co-governance advances? Will Three Waters be cancelled? What about the Health Reforms?

It’s all up in the air.

On the plus side, it makes for exciting times. The next Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll is due out later today, and I suspect that for the first time, Jacinda Ardern’s net favourable will be negative. Labour polls daily, so they’ll have the same sense of impending doom.

As a personal aside, I’ve now outwitted, outlasted and outplayed John Key, Bill English, Simon Bridges, Todd Muller, Andrew Little, and now Jacinda Ardern… and I’m still here.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE


Robert Arthur said...

Is there any chance/risk of Helen clark being invited back. As one of the few influential politcians who had maori sussed she could save the party and the country.

Geoff. said...

It will very interesting to see how much the new leader will backtrack on the most unpopular legislation in an attempt to distance their leadership from Jacinda's, in the hope of presenting a less extreme image to the electorate. The Tattoed Lady or motormouth would be a gift to the opposition, Chris Hipkins is probably the most talented, but it's a very shallow talent pool.

mudbayripper said...

Now let's be honest here. When at last this woman Jacinda Ardern walks out of office, and is no longer under parliamentary privilege.
She by rights should be apprehended and charged with knowingly, conspiring against the people of New Zealand, to without any mandate whatsoever dismantle from whithin our beloved 180 year old democracy, where all are meant to be treated equally under one law.
She along with many others on both sides of the house have been complicit in this ongoing outrage.
Her legacy of utter failure in all areas of policy deserves zero sympathy. The accolades from the international community see her at her best in a contrived performance at a public meeting after the slaughter in Christchurch.
Take their guns and close down the internet was her pathetic solution.
The real heroes were on the front line.
Nothing left in the tank. What a joke. Its all contrived and so it will continue.
Luxon's had a reshuffle, identity politics and critical race theory still reign Supreme.
The new Hamilton Mp becomes the new shadow minister for Maori development. Spare me.
Believe this. New Zealand will only thrive again when we are one people and ethnicity accounts for Nothing and the socialist creep is recognized and destroyed.

Unknown said...

You mean to tell me that the "Socialist City of Auckland", would celebrate the passing of JA. Do you know if Simon Wilson, [1] - celebrated and/or [2] - sat in a corner and cried? Oh well he will have Wayne Brown to apply critical focus on, from now on - no other distractions.

ihcpcoro said...

It will be an interesting few days, with significant infighting within the Maori caucus, I reckon. Tribalism is still there, plus associated vested interests, and they will all realise that this will be their last chance in terms of maintaining the momentum of the co-governance push.

Anonymous said...

If she is up for a job at the UN I think that I'm one of hundreds of thousands willing to write her a reference, if fact I might just send a reference to the UN in anticipation.