Monday, March 27, 2023

Mike Hosking: NSW showed us a glimpse of our election

My working theory for this year's election was re-enforced Saturday night in New South Wales.

My working theory for the October election here is that the damage for Labour is done.

Chris Hipkins can burn as much policy as he wants and the media can write about him being more popular than the predecessor over and over. The key is, the damage is done and the rot has set in.

You have a recession, you have crime touching each and every one of us, you have the myriad of problems we have discussed and debated over and over again.

Essentially, the Government has been found out to be useless and time has killed them.

Time kills all Governments eventually. It just depends how good you are as to how much time you get.

In New South Wales on Saturday night Chris Minns won by a mile and yet, for the past few weeks, the polls had told us it was neck and neck.

There was a general sense that the coalition was out of time, that they most likely would not win.

But most pundits, based on polling, were predicting a close Labour win as a minority Government, with the help of the Greens or Teals or Independents needed.

It didn’t come to pass and the polls were wrong, which goes to my theory, like here, the decision was made. Polls are irrelevant - what you might say is not what you might do.

People subconsciously decide what's right and what isn't, what's working and what isn't.

Gladys Berejiklian was run out of office on a trumped-up charge of some crooked behaviour, a verdict, by the way, that still hasn’t been returned. The replacement was OK, but he wasn’t Gladys.

The state is beset with all sorts of mess including endless public transport issues and essentially people decided, and decided a long time ago, when they next got a chance to send a message, they would.

And they did.

On Saturday night Labour piled across the line with room to spare.

The close race wasn’t close, the polls weren't right. The same thing, my gut says, has and is happening here.

Read the polls if you want, fall for the headlines if you like.

But here's my bet - come Saturday night October 14, the same story will unfold here.

We have already decided and the poll on the night won't be anywhere near like the polls you see at the moment.

Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.


Anonymous said...

I agree with you Mike and can't wait to get rid pf this most useless government ever. Any predictions on what the new government might look like?
A coalition of small parties would be good if we had a strong leader who can make something happen...anything really. And stop throwing gazillions down the drain with nothing to show for it. I can't wait to see Grant and Willie and Nanaia's faces on election night. Ha!

Anonymous said...

I'm not one to count chickens and the stupidity of group think never should astound, but here's hoping you're right, Mike. I, like many, couldn't stomach another term of these current turkeys at the helm. But I just hope that, in the interim, National grows a backbone and calls out all anti-democratic and identity politics for what it is. From the track record and recent events, that's very unlikely, so here's hoping that Act and, if need be (reluctantly) NZ First, gain a very significant voice. If the Greens and/or the Maori Party, with their woke hypocritical and/or racist policy get a look in, heaven help us.

Anonymous said...

The key driver is that a poorly performing Government does not galvanize its voter base. So even if the poles are close the actual people that vote are the opposition and a few of the Govt. support.