Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Cam Slater: No Surprises in Latest Poll

There should be no surprises in the latest 1News poll, released yesterday, that shows support for the coalition has slumped. No surprises here because the Media Party has been on the attack since the Government was formed, hostile to everything because their preferred parties were rinsed in the election.

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The coalition Government would be out and a new Labour-led Government could be in if an election were to be held today, a new 1News Verian poll suggests.

The poll’s numbers see New Zealand First plummeting to 4.2% in the party vote, a result that would oust it from Parliament and, with it, the Government’s numbers to govern.

The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters between April 20 and April 24.

According to the poll, if an election were held today National would still be the biggest party in Parliament with 36% of the party vote, down 2% on the last 1News Verian Poll.

But Labour could form a coalition with the Greens and Te Pati Maori.

Labour is back in the 30s – just – with 30% of the party vote, up 2%. The Green Party is also up 2% to 14%, while ACT is down 1% to 7%. New Zealand First was down 1.8% and below the 5% threshold to return to Parliament.

Te Pati Maori was steady on 4% of the party vote – noting that it holds all but one of the seven Maori electorates. Of those polled, 8% didn’t know which party they would vote for, or refused to answer.

Translated to seats in the House, those numbers meant National and ACT would have a total of 57 seats in the House – falling short of the magic number of seats to form a majority in the 121 seat Parliament – 61 seats.

Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Mori – should they negotiate a coalition deal – had a total of 64 seats and would have the numbers to form a government.

1News was gleeful, headlining that if an election were held today the Government would be out. Thankfully an election won’t be held today. But the Government does need to wake up.

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That’s a dismal result, and it shows that they’re just not getting the cut through to the public that Labour left an absolute shambles in their wake.

Christopher Luxon has tried to be all things to all people, being weak and woke at the same time. Given a choice between Labour or Labour-lite, people would choose Labour.

But the answer isn’t Labour or Greens plus the Maori Party. That would be an economic disaster.

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Predictably Chris Hipkins thinks he is winning:

Labour leader Hipkins said the poll “should be a real wake up call” for the coalition Government that it was taking New Zealand in the wrong direction.

Hipkins said among the public there was a “growing degree of disillusionment with the new Government, relatively early in its new term” and “a real hunger for some hope for the future”.

“They do see it as a coalition of chaos. They are concerned about decisions like rolling back our smokefree laws, cutting funding for disabled people [and] the number of [public sector] jobs that are being cut.”

He could be right, and it could be a wake up call for the Government, and then they recover in the next poll. Then Hipkins will look like a dork…oh wait.

Luxon got his reaction right:

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said polls “will go up and down”.

“We’re not that fixated on them.”

He said ultimately the public would judge the government’s performance at the next election.

“We’re cleaning up a hell of a mess and I think we’re doing a good job of working through it at a great pace.

“I appreciate it’s a challenging time for New Zealand but what New Zealanders want is a government that’s going to get on and deliver for them.”

Steady as she goes. There is a warning here though. National will have to start doing things, rather than doing the usual status quo rubbish they are prone to do when in power.

Right now the best tactic for the Government would be to starve the media of revenue from government advertising.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.


Rob Beechey said...

The MSM are fifth columnists and the sooner the coalition deals to these propagandists the better. Starve them of Govt advertising revenue would be a great start Cam.

Anonymous said...

Bang on Cam,starve the media of ANY revenue for 12 months ,then run another poll

Chuck Bird said...

I hope that Act follows up with its promise about the Climate Change Commission and its hysteria.

Rod Carr's replacement should be a non alarmist like Luxon.

Anonymous said...

Luxon et al need to manage the snake in the room - social destruction caused by so called maori activists. Luxon et al pussyfoot around it.

hughvane said...

The greatest tragedies about the latest poll is that either:
1) the mainstream citizens who voted for change have had enough of polls and no longer participate. They are the 'Silent Majority',
2) NZ society is still encumbered with gullible people who believe what the Muckstream Media publishes or broadcasts.

Anonymous said...

Sadly if Luxon does not un-woke and wake up there won't be an economy to worry about, it is being bled dry by cogovernace and the iwi led gravy train. If the National led preservation of the status quo continues, never mind 'Goodbye Freddy', one day we will all wake up and our economic base will be gone, vanished, cleared off - never to be seen again.