Luxon, being a third grader trying to play in the All Blacks and completely lacking political talent, hasn’t worked out he is not the CEO of a company which has underlings to do his bidding. He has a caucus that are his first employers, and to stay in the job he needs half of them to vote for him. His problem is he is dead set useless and has managed to piss off about a quarter of the caucus by making it clear that they have no future under him.
This table below shows MPs that Luxon has told: ‘You will not get a promotion with me as leader.’ It also shows the MPs who will likely lose their seats if Luxon stays leader. Charitably, National is polling at down four per cent from election night, and uncharitably as much as eight per cent. This means a lot of National MPs in marginal seats will lose their seat if National’s numbers don’t improve. Anyone with a majority of under 6000 will be vulnerable to the message that, without Luxon, National will win more seats.
See Cam's 'Annoyed with Luxon' table HERE
There are 48 MPs in caucus, 50 per cent is 24, but effectively you need 25 MPs to roll Luxon, as a tie means the status quo is retained and National limps along with a lame-duck leader.
Luxon has already lost those he has shafted and he is losing those who will lose their seats because he is so unpopular.
Readers should comment if they know any other MPs who might replace Luxon.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the GoodOil - where this article was sourced.
This table below shows MPs that Luxon has told: ‘You will not get a promotion with me as leader.’ It also shows the MPs who will likely lose their seats if Luxon stays leader. Charitably, National is polling at down four per cent from election night, and uncharitably as much as eight per cent. This means a lot of National MPs in marginal seats will lose their seat if National’s numbers don’t improve. Anyone with a majority of under 6000 will be vulnerable to the message that, without Luxon, National will win more seats.
See Cam's 'Annoyed with Luxon' table HERE
There are 48 MPs in caucus, 50 per cent is 24, but effectively you need 25 MPs to roll Luxon, as a tie means the status quo is retained and National limps along with a lame-duck leader.
Luxon has already lost those he has shafted and he is losing those who will lose their seats because he is so unpopular.
Readers should comment if they know any other MPs who might replace Luxon.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the GoodOil - where this article was sourced.
18 comments:
For me and other like minded Nat supporters (perhaps even a majority) the number one issue when picking a new leader is that he or she promises to campaign on supporting the Treaty Principles Bill all the way to it becoming law.
That is the one issue that has already signed Luxon’s death warrant and could well sink the Coalition at the next election as well .
I am convinced that the bulk of Kiwis and a substantial number of Māoris as well have had enough of this rabble with an exaggerated opinion of their own self importance.
The media driven political Luxon pile on is another reflection on why nz is so poor.
We finally have a quality PM who has the moral fortirude to take on big challenges like gangs and house prices, who has the management pedigree to take a dysfunctional National party to an election win within 1 term, who sets out a clear strategy and plan for nz and his ministers then is the first nz pm to transperantly report progress against that plan every quarter, and who takes responsibility and action when things go slightly off the rails.
And all the media can do is make up generalized bs in an attempt to discredit him.
But fear not intelligent and concerned voters, the nz economy is about to turn, voters will become richer and happier, and the already discredited and distrusted nz media will be consigned to a back seat again.....
Question. How many nz journalists have lost their jobs those month?
Answer.... not enough!
Below are links to Hosking interviewing Luxon and a link to today's Kiwiblog where commenters are saying they are unhappy with Luxon.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/christopher-luxon-prime-minister-talkings-gang-charges-andrew-baylys-resignation-and-a-new-oil-refinery/
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2025/02/general_debate_25_february_2025.html#comments
Yeah? Nah. Admittedly Luxon has had unfair treatment from the press the whole government has. He is not a good politician. He is a CEO. And it would be apparent even to the blind these are not one in the same. His blocking of the Treaty Principles Bill is anti democratic. He has not earned his position as PM and his lack of knowledge and minimal skill set is obvious to all. It is only the lack of an alternative leader(proof of National's shallow talent pool) that has put him there. He is not the leader we need right now.Arrogant ignorant supercilious and completely out of touch!
The only National MP I would like to see in charge is Simeon Brown. Willis, Bishop, Potaka and Stanford are all totally woke. Nothing would change under these peoples leadership. A much better strategy would be for conservative voters to go to ACT or NZF. I agree they are not ideal either, but at least New Zealanders might retain their land and possessions.
Mr Hanley is everywhere in social media singing the praises of Mr Luxon's exceptional economic and managerial expertise. He never mentions the real issue which is proving to be the main problem with the PM and voters: he is giving away the country and refusing to allow citizens to express their voice. Unbelievable arrogance. He must be heeding (bad) advice from Mr Finlayson.
I think that Luxon's hairy berries are in a vice grip of National Party big wigs. They are woke as hell on the globalist agenda and Chris Findlayson is probably the big Party kahuna. Something is terribly wrong when 123 MPs all put up no resistance to the tribal takeover and the climate scam. I despair that things will improve. MC
I just hope that National and NZ First realise very soon that they didn't win the last election because of any genius on their part.
They won because a fair few prior left leaning voters began to loath and abhor Jacinda Ardern, like most of the rest of us.
And the right won't get too many more gifts like that for a long time, If they lose office at the next election it could be a very very long before the regain it.
The left will create The Peoples Ethno Socialist Republic of Aotearoa. Just like 2017 National and Winnies stupidity could again install a left wing government. But this time it could be forever !
All the detail work they have done has been great, but by the time of the next election it won't have much improved the hardship too many currently face.
They need to hit the " rational thinking button" now, support The Treaty Principles Bill and do something to create some balance in the state owned media.
Or we'll become become The Peoples Ethno Socialist Republic of Aotearoa. After 20 years you'll get used to it. And no one under 35 will remember there was ever any other way.
Like the poll's currently say, it's a 50/50 bet right now.
Is Mr Hanley a Labour stooge, or even worse Green or TPM ?
Seems that way.
I would like to see Mark Mitchell step up. He is well liked, has been very effective in law and order, and also has that human touch.
I am within the Epsom electorate.
I can honestly say I do not personally know any voter who does not support Seymours bill....and I am out & about& not living under a rock!
I have conveyed my thoughts to Paul Goldsmith....several times. Eliciting ANY response is like squeezing ' blood from a stone'.
Nats cannot legitimately say they " weren't warned"🤯
Simeon Brown is the only potential candidate, and he'd need to demote all of the wokesters from cabinet and remove them from the National List at the next election to do any good.
Janine
You got right.
Cupboard is bare.
The control Key and his cabal had and have over the selection process delivers what is on the menu today.
Bolger's boldest bungle i.e. MMP ensured LIST MPs made Electorate MPs irrelevant when it comes to "inside caucus" where staying on the List has nothing to do with democratic selection by delegates in electorates and all to do with licking boots at the top table.
National is done. As is Labour shot itself in the foot promoting Māori (their traditional backstop vote) going to the Maori party.
National and Labour have opened the gate for a new conservative party - the difference between conservatives in Labour and National is not big.
Nor is the difference between liberal Nat and Liberal Labour.
Find the money and give me a call. We can set up the next middle fiddle.
To Anon at 3.55: the knives are out to destroy the Epsom electorate and scatter its voters around where they will be less effective. One electorate is to be cut - Epsom or Ohariu
Goldsmith: Luxon 's as henchman - he does all the dirty jobs.
Hi Janine Pressed send too early
Umm To complete the homily, Two Middle Fiddles:
Conservatives and Liberals.
NZ First has had its day - talks but no longer walks - Gold card for geriatrics was the last hooray - now its Red Carpet for Winnie
So, the gap IS in the middle - Labour and National have both failed.
PS Nice to see that you have the confidence in your opinions to put your name to your posts.
He must clean the Augean stables.
Yes, Luxon must be feeling the pressure, albeit self-imposed by his failure to get us really 'back on track' and his unbelievable stance on the TP Bill. What arrogance, and I concur with Janine, although Simeon is probably too young and likely doesn't really have enough experienced support to call upon?
As for Mark Hanley, I'm picking its a pseudonym. Either way, I'll wager almost any amount that that persona isn't someone you would back as highly informed, a go-getter, and/or with a verifiable track record of achievement and success in his own right. Go on Mark, prove me wrong?
Well it's Seymour's electorate: I'm next door in Tamaki, now held by Brooke van Velden. They're wealthy areas which always vote in right-wing members, so it's unsurprising that support for the TPB is strong.
Post a Comment