Positioned roughly 340 nautical miles east of New South Wales, after earlier nearing within 150 nautical miles of Sydney, the Chinese naval task group has disrupted commercial flight paths and drawn intense scrutiny.
When viewed alongside the Cook Islands’ new strategic partnership with China and the warnings given by Sir Alex Younger in an interview on BBC Newsnight last week, this incident underscores a broader shift from the international rules-based order towards a multi-polar world of hard power. A situation which strengthens the case for New Zealand to join Pillar Two of AUKUS.
China’s foreign ministry called the exercises routine “far seas” operations, lawfully conducted under international norms. Yet their proximity to Australia and New Zealand’s exclusive economic zones, without prior notice, has rattled both countries.
Minister of Defence Judith Collins said that China began live-firing activity in the Tasman Sea on Friday, followed by a second round on Saturday afternoon.
“We are aware of reporting from the New Zealand Defence Force that the Chinese naval Task Group has advised of a second window for live firing activity, on Saturday afternoon New Zealand time,” Collins said.
Australian P-8s are now tracking the fleet, as airlines reroute.
For Younger, the UK’s former MI6 chief from 2014 to 2020, this fits a broader pattern:
China’s foreign ministry called the exercises routine “far seas” operations, lawfully conducted under international norms. Yet their proximity to Australia and New Zealand’s exclusive economic zones, without prior notice, has rattled both countries.
Minister of Defence Judith Collins said that China began live-firing activity in the Tasman Sea on Friday, followed by a second round on Saturday afternoon.
“We are aware of reporting from the New Zealand Defence Force that the Chinese naval Task Group has advised of a second window for live firing activity, on Saturday afternoon New Zealand time,” Collins said.
Australian P-8s are now tracking the fleet, as airlines reroute.
For Younger, the UK’s former MI6 chief from 2014 to 2020, this fits a broader pattern:
“I think we are in a new era, where by and large international relations aren’t going to be determined by rules and multilateral institutions. They’re going to be determined by strong men and deals. I think of the Yalta Treaty at the end of 1945 where three strong men, as they were then, on behalf of the big countries decided the fate of small countries. I think that’s Donald Trump’s mindset. It’s certainly Putin’s mindset. It’s Xi Jinping’s mindset. It’s not Europe’s mindset. That’s the world we’re going into for a whole set of reasons and I don’t think we’re going back to the one we had before.”
“We’re seeing deals. We’re seeing conversations of spheres of influence, and I think the only people that haven’t woken up to this reality is us [Europe]. And there’s an entry ticket to this conversation, it appears, and sadly it’s not our soft power or our values - it’s hard power, and it leaves the category challenge for us in Europe: how do we develop that to get us a seat in this conversation.”
Australia and New Zealand face the same imperative, jolted by China’s unexpected boldness. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese dubbed the drills “unusual”, a restrained reaction which drew fire from the opposition for its perceived weakness. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong criticised Beijing’s opacity while New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon said the NZDF was “continuously monitoring, tracking and shadowing the movements of this fleet in conjunction with our Australian friends and partners and we will continue to do so”.
Yet a Defence Ministry briefing from October 2024, released Thursday, shows New Zealand still in a holding pattern on AUKUS Pillar Two, with officials weighing ‘long-term policy, regional, bilateral, and economic implications.’ The Tasman Sea events shift that calculus—joining Pillar Two now appears to be urgent.
The Cook Islands’ strategic partnership with China, signed this month during PM Mark Brown’s Beijing visit, adds context. Covering trade, infrastructure, and seabed minerals, it’s rattled New Zealand, which shares a ‘free association’ with the Pacific nation. Wellington has sought transparency, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters expressing a desire for a ‘reset’ in the relationship.
Whilst not a security pact, this arrangement when paired with the Tasman Sea exercises, hints at Beijing’s intent to blend economic and military leverage - an alarming signal for Pacific security.
Indeed, Australia’s ABC has reported that privately Australian and U.S. officials believe that this demonstration of naval strength could be a preview of, “further and more assertive Chinese military activity deep into this region”.
This unprecedented action strengthens the argument for New Zealand to join Pillar Two of AUKUS, the Australia-U.K.-U.S. pact designed to counter China’s Pacific rise. Pillar One equips Australia with nuclear submarines, but Pillar Two offers advanced tools - AI, cyber defences and hypersonic weapons - to enhance deterrence without nuclear commitments.
Wellington’s hesitation now looks untenable after the Tasman Sea events. Joining AUKUS would align New Zealand with Western allies, meeting Younger’s strength threshold and providing access to capabilities needed to counter emerging threats.
Younger’s spheres of influence lens casts this as a regional wake-up call: power projection is essential to retain influence. The disruptions over the weekend to trans-Tasman commercial flights are a minor ripple compared to the strategic questions now facing Canberra and Wellington.
Australia’s path is clear - deepen AUKUS commitments. For New Zealand, the case appears to be compelling - join Pillar Two promptly, as Younger’s logic demands, or risk lagging behind in an era where power, rather than rules-based norms, will increasingly prevail.
Lawyer and writer Philip Crump explores political, legal and cultural issues facing New Zealand. Sometimes known as Thomas Cranmer. This article was published HERE
5 comments:
NZ should be supporting Tonga they have a navy. Tonga has always pursued high education standards for it's people. We should be supporting their education system.NZ is far better off supporting Tonga's navy than offering another cent of aid to the Cooks. No more access to NZ for the Cook Islands.
What You Should Know about New Zealand’s Potential Involvement in AUKUS Pillar Two by Marco de Jong.
Taken together, Pacific opposition to AUKUS is based in the belief that its military focus and reliance on nuclear technologies go against Pacific peoples’ own conceptions of security. Because AUKUS powers have sought to integrate the Pacific regional security agenda into an Indo-Pacific Strategy, intentionally sidelining Pacific-led regionalism and its priorities, they are creating the very instability in Pacific societies they claim to address.
When I first wrote about AUKUS, I suggested that peoples of the Pacific must act in the full understanding that our ocean is becoming, once again, a sacrifice zone: a military buffer and climate disaster area.41 I said that hawks in Canberra, Washington and London have the intel, they see a Pacific region that is facing deepening disaster. But instead of committing to the alternative security vision held by Pacific nations, they have chosen securitised lenses that see the region in imperial terms and our people as collateral. This remains the case, giving New Zealand a choice, between the Pacific and the Anglosphere.
Ultimately, any New Zealand involvement in AUKUS must be weighed against other interests and forms of international influence, but especially in the Pacific. This decision is about credibility on regional issues of climate, development, and disarmament. Without maintaining principled difference from major polluters and military powers, New Zealand could lose its standing in the Pacific, and by extension the world.
https://www.securityincontext.org/posts/what-you-should-know-about-new-zealands-potential-involvement-in-aukus-pillar-two
https://www.defence.govt.nz/publications/aukus-pillar-ii-recent-developments-and-progress/
What’s all the fuss over a few Chinese warships in the Tasman and a Chinese deal with the Cooks? We ain’t seen nothing yet! When the tribalists, enabled and abetted by our lying and useless politicians (particularly the PM) and activist judges, complete the takeover of our coast out to 12 nautical miles the Chinese will need only to wave a few dollars or equivalent under their noses and they’ll fall over themselves to give them (the Chinese) access to all the minerals and harbour facilities they want.
Interesting comments, but when you’re staring down a heavily armed Chinese navy in your backyard they mean nought.
The Pacific islands will learn that sleeping with a dragon has consequences.
NZ and Australia will need to up its game big time to defend its shores.
Fuel resilience would have to be a major concern after closing the Refinery. A blockade by China on our ports would mean the country running out of fuel in a matter of weeks. Game over. Where are the bright eyed Boys who advocated for closing the Refinery ?
Would they make that same decision again, I think not.
This unprecedented action strengthens the argument for New Zealand to join Pillar Two of AUKUS, the Australia-U.K.-U.S. pact designed to counter China’s Pacific rise".
You must be joking. Get into some sort of treaty with the US! You mean the same US that reneges on its treaty commitments without batting an eyelid. The same US that reversed 80 years of treaty making to undermine NATO and the the international rule-based order. The same US that broke up NAFTA, then renegotiated deals with Canada and Mexico only to break them again when it no longer suited them. The same US that broke its agreements under the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iranian nuclear deal, even our very own Trans-Pacific Partnership. Yeah, right. That's really the sort of treaty partner we need.
The only sensible course of action is to distance ourselves from Trump until he is removed from office. China is going to continue to rise whether we join AUKUS or not, and you can guarantee that any promises made to New Zealand by the US will go the same way as Article 5 of NATO the minute China invades Taiwan and Trump pretends Taiwan started the war. And what will that make us? Sitting ducks, that's what!
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