Well, you can, but in this case, you would be fairly churlish.
Personally, I would have held, but given the vote was done by consensus I clearly would have been a lone voice.
Three hikes are coming, we may get them every other meeting, and we will end up with a cash rate of 3.25%.
If you want the glass half full, look at Australia. Their cash rate is well into the 4% and inflation is far from over. And that’s before I get to the upcoming jobs issues, not to mention the property correction.
But back to us. Inflation is why they are hiking and will continue to hike.
But, and it's a big 'but', surely there is an argument that says it's not as bad as we feared? And not just that, it's peaked and is trending down – down to exactly where it needs it to be.
Besides, a lot of the inflation remaining is council rates and cost-plus-accounting from power prices.
The Taxpayers Union blames the Government, which is an Australian argument, but not applicable here.
The Government has an operating budget of $2.1 billion, which is anaemic. We are $3 billion better off on latest figures than we thought.
The Government is not blowing out the inflation.
But the main reason I would have held is the psychology of pulling the trigger too soon. We are fragile. New Zealand loves a funk and we have been in a funk, and we don’t need misery merchants.
The bank is clinical, which in part is their job. But a good part of any economy is the psychology of it, the vibe of it, the mood of it.
We need help on the mood. We need a lesson to get on with it, and we need to be encouraged. A rate hike doesn’t do that.
Look, this isn't a disaster. It's not even a bad mistake. It's probably just an unwelcome attitude driven by number wonks, not empaths, who could have been a bit more generous.
New Zealand is on the move again. The bank says 25 points doesn’t hinder that.
I'm not convinced they're right.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
If you want the glass half full, look at Australia. Their cash rate is well into the 4% and inflation is far from over. And that’s before I get to the upcoming jobs issues, not to mention the property correction.
But back to us. Inflation is why they are hiking and will continue to hike.
But, and it's a big 'but', surely there is an argument that says it's not as bad as we feared? And not just that, it's peaked and is trending down – down to exactly where it needs it to be.
Besides, a lot of the inflation remaining is council rates and cost-plus-accounting from power prices.
The Taxpayers Union blames the Government, which is an Australian argument, but not applicable here.
The Government has an operating budget of $2.1 billion, which is anaemic. We are $3 billion better off on latest figures than we thought.
The Government is not blowing out the inflation.
But the main reason I would have held is the psychology of pulling the trigger too soon. We are fragile. New Zealand loves a funk and we have been in a funk, and we don’t need misery merchants.
The bank is clinical, which in part is their job. But a good part of any economy is the psychology of it, the vibe of it, the mood of it.
We need help on the mood. We need a lesson to get on with it, and we need to be encouraged. A rate hike doesn’t do that.
Look, this isn't a disaster. It's not even a bad mistake. It's probably just an unwelcome attitude driven by number wonks, not empaths, who could have been a bit more generous.
New Zealand is on the move again. The bank says 25 points doesn’t hinder that.
I'm not convinced they're right.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
1 comment:
You've got it all confused, Hosking = the Reserve Bank law was changed by your chums the Nats to solely target inflation = so the Bank now has no other choice. Your agument of not funking the recovery in GDP was part of the previous dual mandate that I helped implement. That is, it included that the Bank should have regard to employment also which would have enabled it to go easier on the OCR now. Your mates Lux and Willis rejected that flexibility and so banged us with the rise in rates this week with their new law = did you get that?
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