Mike's Minute: "Why risk choking off what little we currently have?"

To the Reserve Bank, the cash rate and the state of NZ Inc.

It's assumed by most that the cash rate will be increased 25 points to 2.75%.

It's also assumed there will be another one by the end of the year. What happens after that has a “who knows” feel about it.

Mike's Minute: I'm not convinced the Reserve Bank was right

You can't bag the Monetary Policy Committee.

Well, you can, but in this case, you would be fairly churlish.

Personally, I would have held, but given the vote was done by consensus I clearly would have been a lone voice.

Ryan Bridge: We can't bash the RBNZ

The problem with bashing the RBNZ in real time is that nobody really knows how badly they might have cocked something until well after the cocking's happened.

There weren't many, though not none, chiding Orr for low rates until it was bleedingly obvious in actual data, and what Prince Harry would term 'lived experience', that prices were on the march.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Anna Breman delivered a refreshingly boring OCR update

The Official Cash Rate has gone up by 25 basis points. This is the first rise we've seen in three years.

It was unanimous around the committee table that it needed to happen because of inflation. Even though petrol and diesel prices have fallen sharply since the Iran war ceasefire deal was struck, they're not back to pre-war levels yet and they won't be for some time. That, of course, is inflationary.

Kerre Woodham: Was holding the OCR the right decision?

So what would you rather? A little bit of pain now or a whole lot more later? The Reserve Bank yesterday opted to keep the official cash rate at 2.25%, but the decision to hold was a close-run thing. And we know that now because of the transparency around the decisions being made and a jolly good thing it is too. Governor Dr. Anna Breman had to use her casting vote. The Monetary Policy Committee was evenly split on whether to raise the rate. The three Reserve Bank officials wanted to hold, the external committee members wanted to hike and therefore Governor Breman had to use her casting vote.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: When will the screws on the economy start turning?

Well, that Official Cash Rate decision is probably one of those moments where you find out whether you're a glass half-full or glass half-empty person.

Because on the bright side, the Official Cash Rate didn’t go up. On the downside, it looks like it’s definitely going up next time. So yes, it’s a reprieve - but it’s only a reprieve for six weeks, excuse me, before the screws on the economy start turning again.

David Farrar: A good further transparency move

The Herald reports:

Members of the public are due to get greater insight into the thinking of those on the powerful Reserve Bank committee that sets interest rates.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Finance Minister Nicola Willis have agreed to a new charter that will see members’ individual views on how to set monetary policy publicised.

Kerre Woodham: Can you see the light at the end of the tunnel?

The Official Cash Rate has been left unchanged, 2.25%, expected by all the commentators, but perhaps less expected was a dovish view of the future. It was the new Reserve Bank Governor's, well she's not that new I suppose, the newish Reserve Bank Governor's first OCR review, having come on board at the end of '25. She is pretty optimistic about the economy. She said it will continue to recover, but she understands that many households are not feeling it yet. Must be rather annoying being told, no, everything's fine, everything's turning around, everything's great, while you're looking down the back of the couch for coins to get the kids' school lunches.

Dr Oliver Hartwich: NZ’s zombie rock star economy

Walk through Wellington, and you will see plenty of empty shopfronts and shuttered cafes. Switch on the radio, and you will hear experts say this is the best time to buy a house in years.

Talk to shoppers, and they will tell you about cost-of-living pressures. Listen to the Reserve Bank, and they will tell you inflation is back within its target band.

These are contradictory messages. Yet they all make sense, because the New Zealand economy in late 2025 is a complicated mix.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Thanks to the big banks for not helping

I've reached the conclusion that when it comes to the banks and mortgage rates, the only option you've got left is to hustle.

You're on your own here.

It has been 2 days since the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate, and by how much do you think the big banks have cut their fixed rates?

Mike's Minute: Are banks behaving badly or not?

Regular listeners will be aware of my ongoing angst over banks and whether or not they are legit players in our marketplace.

The Reserve Bank this week, in one final stab this year, will most likely cut the cash rate, again, which will leave it at 2.25%.

The Co-operative Bank last week claimed they are the only ones who have fully passed on the cash rate cuts so far.

Kerre Woodham: OCR cuts have not restored the most important thing - confidence

Hopes for an economic recovery have been given a significant boost by yesterday's decision from the Reserve Bank to frontload cuts to the official cash rate. The RBNZ delivered a 50 basis point cut to the OCR and indicated it was prepared to cut again in November if required. After that, they're kind of starting to run out of ammo.

Ele Ludemann: In need of confidence

Yesterday’s announcement of a 50 basis point official cash rate reduction will ease pressure on households and businesses.

That ought to provide a boost to the economy which is sorely in need of the confidence which fosters investment which in turn leads to growth and more job opportunities.

David Farrar: Another OCR drop

The Reserve Bank has dropped the OCR by a further 0.25% to 3.0%. They note:

The US has increased tariffs on their imports from most countries. US tariffs on New Zealand goods have increased from 10% to 15%. This tariff may hurt our exporters, particularly those who are reliant on the US.

Mike's Minute: The pressure is on Christian Hawkesby

The pressure is on the new Reserve Bank fill-in Governor today.

Although given it’s a committee, in theory he is more of a messenger.

It's reported that we have increased calls for a 50 basis point cut.

Why? Because things aren't flash.