Mike's Minute: The Reserve Bank came to the party

Gold medal for Kelly Eckhold at Westpac.

He called it, or at least suggested the hold we saw from the Reserve Bank wasn't as "home run" as many might have predicted.

This, in a dry, old world of monetary policy, is little short of a blockbuster.

I guess you could argue the 4-3 vote is a good indication of the wider view.

Mike's Minute: The Reserve Bank came to the party

Gold medal for Kelly Eckhold at Westpac.

He called it, or at least suggested the hold we saw from the Reserve Bank wasn't as "home run" as many might have predicted.

This, in a dry, old world of monetary policy, is little short of a blockbuster.

I guess you could argue the 4-3 vote is a good indication of the wider view.

Dennis Wesselbaum: Low productivity is NZ’s economic elephant in the room. Election pledges mostly avoid it

Yesterday’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update from the Treasury has given political parties their clearest picture yet of the economy they could inherit after November’s election.

The near-term fiscal outlook is brighter than expected. Treasury now forecasts a $6.8 billion deficit in 2026-27 – down from the $11.4 billion predicted at the May Budget – while higher tax revenue is expected to reduce government borrowing by $15 billion over the next four years.

Ryan Bridge: How much cash will we get back from tax cuts?

How much cash will we get back from tax cuts?

Nicola Willis will soon an announcement about their timing and potential value, if they get back to the Treasury benches.

The good news out of yesterday's PREFU is that the books are out of structural deficit this year.

Dr Don Brash: Why The Reserve Bank Should Remain Focussed On Inflation

As we approach the 2026 election, both Labour and NZ First want to change the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy mandate from its current single focus on the control of inflation to a dual mandate - controlling inflation while also maximising employment.

And to a great many people that sounds like a sensible change.

But it's not.

David Farrar: Ruth calls it straight

Ruth Richardson writes:

As inflation rears its ugly head again, New Zealand First proposes stripping the Reserve Bank of its sole mission to fight inflation. In an exercise in virtue signalling, employment is bolted on as a second mission. Labour’s Barbara Edmonds wants the same.

This is sheer monetary policy vandalism, flying in the face of all the evidence that there is no trade-off between price stability and employment. That monetary policy can permanently deliver employment growth is nothing more than a cruel hoax.

Damien Grant: NZ’s inflation is moving faster than you think....

Like an accelerating e-scooter, NZ’s inflation is moving faster than you think

Picture the Waitemata. It’s expansive. The bridge to your left, Rangitoto on the right, CBD behind you and an e-scooter weaving wildly just out of your vision. Ice cream in hand, pistachio and mango, clear sky allowing the winter sun to warm your soul. We really are lucky to live in such a beautiful country.

When the idiot on the e-scooter ploughs into your side, tipping you forward so your face breaks the fall and the ice cream scatters across the creosote, which matters more; the speed that the e-scooter was travelling at the moment of impact or, alternatively, how far it had been ridden in the previous hour?

Let’s talk inflation.

Perspective with Ryan Bridge: What do the latest inflation numbers really mean for the 'squeezed middle'?

Nicola Willis will like the inflation number that's come out. More importantly, she'll like the story that number is telling.

Remember, her target audience is the squeezed middle. This is the battleground. This is the fight for the soft centre at the election: Labour versus National. These are the voters both parties are targeting.

David Farrar: Inflation hits 4.1% due to fuel crisis

Stats NZ reports:

New Zealand’s consumers price index (CPI) increased 4.1 percent in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

The largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5 percent.

Mike's Minute: I'm not convinced the Reserve Bank was right

You can't bag the Monetary Policy Committee.

Well, you can, but in this case, you would be fairly churlish.

Personally, I would have held, but given the vote was done by consensus I clearly would have been a lone voice.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: The National Party needs to rethink its plan for this election

We need to talk about inflation, because inflation is making me pretty sure now that the National Party needs to rethink its plan for this election.

We’ve just had the food inflation data out today. No surprise - food has gone up in price again in the year to February, up 4.5 percent.

Dr Will Jones: Protests Calling for “Death to the Dictator” Erupt Across Iran

Mass protests have erupted across Iran calling for “death to the dictator” over the regime’s economic crisis, as Donald Trump threatens military action if the country rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes. The Telegraph has more.

David Farrar: Labour’s dual mandate led to higher inflation

The Herald reported:

The Reserve Bank has today published an update on its progress in responding to recommendations from its review of monetary policy over the 2017 to 2022 period.

It has also released new work reviewing the MPC’s response to above-target inflation from 2021 to 2024.

Dr Oliver Hartwich: When central banks get the blame for doing their job

Australians watching the economic drama unfold across the Tasman might find the plot familiar: An economy shrinks far faster than anyone forecast. Manufacturing slumps. As the gloom deepens, the blame game begins.

Yet what is happening in New Zealand is more than the usual grumbling. It is an extraordinary pile-on. A powerful and highly unusual coalition has formed with a single, unified demand for the Reserve Bank: deep cuts, now.

David Farrar: We need less inflation, not more

Radio NZ reports:

Nicola Willis is calling Labour’s willingness to discuss increasing the Reserve Bank’s inflation target “insane economic illiteracy”. Labour says that’s a “massive misrepresentation” of their stance.

Ryan Bridge: What can Nicola do about inflation contributors?

Electricity and groceries are your two big ticket inflation targets. Punters want to pay less for both.

There are nuclear options available:

Cut the gentailers in half by force. Those pro-wrecking ball argue if you force them to separate out the generation side of the business from the retail, you’d create more competition and lower prices.

Ele Ludemann: Bring back Brash?

Six years with a Labour government showed very clearly that more spending isn’t always better spending.

It’s a lesson the Reserve Bank doesn’t appear to have learned:

David Farrar: Inflation down but not out

The quarterly inflation rate of 0.5% and annual inflation rate of 2.2% is acceptable, even though a bit on the high side (I think the range should be 0 to 2%).

The breakdown annually is 4.5% for non-tradeables and -1.1% for tradeables. 4.5% is still too high and if I was the Reserve Bank I’d be tempted to only do a 0.25% drop in the cash rate.

David Hargreaves: December quarter inflation figures....

Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show moderate price pressures over December, indicating few likely nasty surprises in next week's December quarter inflation figures

Food prices edged up 0.1% in December, following a 0.1% drop in November, according to Stats NZ.

Alexander Gillespie: NZ report card 2024 - how the country fared in 25 key global and domestic rankings

If it’s good enough for school and university students, it’s good enough for entire countries, too.

This report card provides a snapshot of how New Zealand fared across a wide range of international measures – where it did well, and where there’s room for improvement.