In Unravelling MMP: How the 2026 election could break the voting system from two sides, Executive Director Dr Oliver Hartwich shows how the strategy plays on the overhang rule. Te Pāti Māori wins its seats through the Māori electorates, so its party votes can be given away. On current polling, the play is worth three or four extra seats for the left bloc.
“Our note is a plea to Te Pāti Māori to reconsider,” Hartwich said. “Once one party games the voting system in the open, restraint becomes a handicap for everyone else.”
The greater danger lies in the response it invites. National is on track to win more electorates than its party vote covers. That would leave close to 900,000 National party votes with no effect on the result.
The note models what happens if centre-right voters respond in kind. If one National party vote in nine moved to a coalition partner, the Government would win a majority that current polling denies it. At one in four, the coalition would hold 69 seats in a Parliament of 132, even though the opposition parties won more votes between them.
“That is the wrong-winner election MMP was introduced to prevent,” Hartwich said. “It would return inside the very system built to banish it, and not one law would be broken. That is the problem: the law itself invites it.”
Christopher Luxon has promised a referendum on MMP if he is re-elected. An election won by gaming the system would write the case for abolition better than any campaign could.
The note calls on the next Parliament to fix the rules before any referendum: balance out overhang seats so that gaming no longer pays.
“An electoral system that punishes sincere voting and rewards clever voting will not stay legitimate for long,” Hartwich said.
“Our note is a plea to Te Pāti Māori to reconsider,” Hartwich said. “Once one party games the voting system in the open, restraint becomes a handicap for everyone else.”
The greater danger lies in the response it invites. National is on track to win more electorates than its party vote covers. That would leave close to 900,000 National party votes with no effect on the result.
The note models what happens if centre-right voters respond in kind. If one National party vote in nine moved to a coalition partner, the Government would win a majority that current polling denies it. At one in four, the coalition would hold 69 seats in a Parliament of 132, even though the opposition parties won more votes between them.
“That is the wrong-winner election MMP was introduced to prevent,” Hartwich said. “It would return inside the very system built to banish it, and not one law would be broken. That is the problem: the law itself invites it.”
Christopher Luxon has promised a referendum on MMP if he is re-elected. An election won by gaming the system would write the case for abolition better than any campaign could.
The note calls on the next Parliament to fix the rules before any referendum: balance out overhang seats so that gaming no longer pays.
“An electoral system that punishes sincere voting and rewards clever voting will not stay legitimate for long,” Hartwich said.
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Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank. This article was first published HERE.
4 comments:
Interesting that there's a chapter heading for the situation where National voters move to Act, but not one for NZ First.
What astonished me at the time was the lightweight comment about MMP. Jim Bolger seemed to regard it as trivial. Very many legal minds would have been able to identify all the flaws now being exploited, but they did not trouble to ponder or comment. Miraculous powers of perception, rationale and fairness were assumed possessed by the architect, except for his observation about maori seats. The gross anomaly of these was continued by timid Nats contrary to recommendation.
An electoral system that almost invariably fails to deliver what sensible voters vote for, and conceals what is intended, is surely not legitimate right now?
Jacinda has a lot to answer for here
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