Dennis Wesselbaum: Low productivity is NZ’s economic elephant in the room. Election pledges mostly avoid it

Yesterday’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update from the Treasury has given political parties their clearest picture yet of the economy they could inherit after November’s election.

The near-term fiscal outlook is brighter than expected. Treasury now forecasts a $6.8 billion deficit in 2026-27 – down from the $11.4 billion predicted at the May Budget – while higher tax revenue is expected to reduce government borrowing by $15 billion over the next four years.

Richard Shaw: Coalition leadership is hard. Luxon’s ‘nuclear option’ of electoral reform is not the answer

Much to everyone’s surprise – including, it seems, his National Party colleagues – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has committed to offering voters the chance to revisit their electoral system. Again.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised – National has form when it comes to constitutional change.

Richard Shaw: NZ’s political ‘centre’ is an electoral strategy, not a set of beliefs

Most of us use an imaginary two-dimensional spectrum to chart the positions of political parties, generally based on the fundamental issue of the relationship between the state and private enterprise.

Parties of the left tip towards a greater role for government, while those on the right favour free markets and lower taxes.

Aaron Gilbert: NZ’s retirement debate - Will tinkering today spell more trouble tomorrow?

For generations of New Zealanders, a lifetime of work has come with the promise of a secure and happy retirement.

Today, however, that notion of golden years spent in relative comfort is slipping out of reach for a growing number of struggling retirees. Without a serious policy rethink, younger New Zealanders may face an even tougher reality when their time to leave the workforce comes.

Despite these challenges, policies tabled this election year amount to little more than tinkering around the edges.

Peter Bassett: Knocking on Doors, Pretending Not to Notice the Stairwell Is on Fire

Chlöe Swarbrick wants the Greens out knocking on doors.

Not metaphorically. Literally. Imagine her pounding the streets of Auckland Central, her home electorate — clipboard in hand, optimism applied like a hi-vis vest.

Ryan Bridge: My prediction for the 2026 election

Like it or not, next year's big dance in politics will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.

Most MMP elections have been. Minnows hold the keys to the kingdom.

Be it Winston with his best result ever or Te Pati Māori with an overhang - 2026 won’t be a 2020 landslide.

JC: The Right Need to Wake Up

Conservatives have taken a hammering recently in elections in Canada, the UK and Australia. The reasons why are lessons they need to learn. Listening to Sky News on Sunday morning picking over the bones of what is left of the Liberals and Peter Dutton was a revelation. No amount of criticism was spared: everything that went wrong was dissected to the maximum extent possible. A common term they used to describe Dutton and others was ‘bed wetters’.

Professor Robert MacCulloch: NZ Election 2026 will be fought UK-style....

Labour's Colonial Plans for NZ Election 2026 Revealed: it will be fought UK-style over the level & types of taxes to "rebuild public services".

We like to do self-congratulatory back patting from time to time at this Blog. Why? Since we believe we get most of our economic predictions in NZ correct. The reason is that we chase facts, have good sources, and solid bases for making predictions, rather than an agenda of trying to brain-wash readers into our preferred way of thinking, like most journalists in our Main Stream Media.