In this newsletter:
1) Germany's 20% coal surge threatens long-term climate goals
Montel News, 4 January 2023
2) As Germany goes back to coal climate goals are no longer its main priority
The Washington Times, 4 January 2023
Montel News, 4 January 2023
2) As Germany goes back to coal climate goals are no longer its main priority
The Washington Times, 4 January 2023
3) Nigel Farage and Montford Montford: Germany to destroy village to make way for coal mine expansion
GB News, 3 January 2023
4) Hitting back at US, France and Germany push EU to adopt “a European Green Subsidy Act”
Politico, 4 January 2023
5) Bringing manufacturing back to the US or Europe won’t be easy or cheap
Technode, 5 January 2023
GB News, 3 January 2023
4) Hitting back at US, France and Germany push EU to adopt “a European Green Subsidy Act”
Politico, 4 January 2023
5) Bringing manufacturing back to the US or Europe won’t be easy or cheap
Technode, 5 January 2023
6) MPs demand speed limit cut as part of Net Zero 'war effort'
The Daily Telegraph, 5 January 2023
The Daily Telegraph, 5 January 2023
7) UK faces blackouts threat if more plants taken offline, warns nuclear boss
City A.M., 4 January 2023
City A.M., 4 January 2023
8) Steven Koonin: Will climate change really put New York underwater?
The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2023
9) Psychologist Jordan Peterson could lose license if he refuses social media ‘re-education’
New York Post, 5 January 2023
New York Post, 5 January 2023
10) The campaign to Re-Educate Jordan Peterson
The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2023
The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2023
Full details:
1) Germany's 20% coal surge threatens long-term climate goals
Montel News, 4 January 2023
Montel News, 4 January 2023
(Montel) A 20% increase in German coal-fired power production last year could threaten the long-term climate goals in the EU’s biggest economy, think tank Agora Energiewende said on Wednesday.
Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions totalled 761m tonnes last year, 5m tonnes short of the 2022 target, as well as the 2020 goal to cut emissions 40% below 1990 levels, Agora said.
The country will now have to step up efforts to reach the 2030 and 2040 targets to cut emissions by at least 65% and 88% below 1990 levels, respectively.
Last year, the government permitted the temporary return of around 10 GW of reserve hard coal, lignite and oil-fired capacity to the power market to curb gas usage in the face of sharply reduced supplies from Russia – in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Coal-fired power generation jumped 20% on the year to 60 TWh and lignite output rose 7% to 109 TWh, as the more heavily polluting fuel saw profit margins improve relative to gas, Agora data showed.
Gas-fired output, meanwhile, dropped 16% to 75 TWh, while nuclear production was halved to 33 TWh due to the closure of 4 GW of capacity last year.
The government still intends to phase out coal as a power source by 2030, despite the recent increase in generation.
Renewable buildout “crisis”
Simon Mueller, director at Agora, also warned that Germany “is heading for a massive gap in the expansion of renewables” and that there was a “crisis” in the onshore wind sector, where capacity only rose by 2 GW last year.
Renewable capacity growth had to be tripled from present levels to reach the 2030 target for increasing the share of renewable energy in power demand to 80%.
Nevertheless, total renewable generation in Germany surged to a new annual record high of 248 TWh last year, up 10% from 2021. Yet, this was mainly due to favourable weather conditions rather than policies supporting the buildout of new capacity, Agora said.
2) As Germany goes back to coal climate goals are no longer its main priority
The Washington Times, 4 January 2023
BERLIN — Data published Wednesday by a respected environmental think tank indicates Germany likely missed its target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions again last year, despite a big effort by the new government to expand the renewable energy use.
Agora Energiewende think tank said in a report that the country released the equivalent of 761 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, the main planet-warming gas, in 2022. This was slightly below the previous year but still above Germany’s target of cutting emissions by 40% by 2020.
While Germany met its target in 2020, that was largely due to the pandemic-related economic downturn. Emissions rose again as the economy rebounded over the following two years, when they were meant to decrease further.
Germany‘s economy minister said official figures won’t be released until mid-March, but noted that higher emissions from coal-fired power plants reactivated to make up for a lack of Russian gas had been balanced out by energy-saving measures and renewable power generation.
Robert Habeck, a member of the environmentalist Green party whose ministerial portfolio also covers energy and climate, said new measures to boost wind and solar power generation would take effect in 2023. But he expressed concern over the lack of emissions cuts in the transport sector, describing it as a “problem child” that requires urgent attention.
Climate activists, meanwhile, have blasted Habeck and his party for supporting plans to bulldoze a tiny village in western Germany to make way for a nearby coal mine.
Protesters camped out in Luetzerath clashed with police earlier this week, and more demonstrations are planned at the site ahead of Jan. 10, when utility company RWE is expected to raze the ancient hamlet.
About 150 people gathered outside Habeck’s ministry Wednesday to protest against the expansion of the Garzweiler coal mine that will swallow Luetzerath, claiming that a compromise reached last year between the government and RWE will result in more emissions, not fewer.
“This coal deal between the Greens and RWE is a black box that leads to climate catastrophe,” said campaigner Luisa Neubauer.
“This is something we won’t agree to. It’s diametrically opposed to the Paris climate agreement,” she said, adding that Luetzerath sits atop of hundreds of millions of tons of coal.
Full story
Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions totalled 761m tonnes last year, 5m tonnes short of the 2022 target, as well as the 2020 goal to cut emissions 40% below 1990 levels, Agora said.
The country will now have to step up efforts to reach the 2030 and 2040 targets to cut emissions by at least 65% and 88% below 1990 levels, respectively.
Last year, the government permitted the temporary return of around 10 GW of reserve hard coal, lignite and oil-fired capacity to the power market to curb gas usage in the face of sharply reduced supplies from Russia – in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Coal-fired power generation jumped 20% on the year to 60 TWh and lignite output rose 7% to 109 TWh, as the more heavily polluting fuel saw profit margins improve relative to gas, Agora data showed.
Gas-fired output, meanwhile, dropped 16% to 75 TWh, while nuclear production was halved to 33 TWh due to the closure of 4 GW of capacity last year.
The government still intends to phase out coal as a power source by 2030, despite the recent increase in generation.
Renewable buildout “crisis”
Simon Mueller, director at Agora, also warned that Germany “is heading for a massive gap in the expansion of renewables” and that there was a “crisis” in the onshore wind sector, where capacity only rose by 2 GW last year.
Renewable capacity growth had to be tripled from present levels to reach the 2030 target for increasing the share of renewable energy in power demand to 80%.
Nevertheless, total renewable generation in Germany surged to a new annual record high of 248 TWh last year, up 10% from 2021. Yet, this was mainly due to favourable weather conditions rather than policies supporting the buildout of new capacity, Agora said.
2) As Germany goes back to coal climate goals are no longer its main priority
The Washington Times, 4 January 2023
BERLIN — Data published Wednesday by a respected environmental think tank indicates Germany likely missed its target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions again last year, despite a big effort by the new government to expand the renewable energy use.
Agora Energiewende think tank said in a report that the country released the equivalent of 761 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, the main planet-warming gas, in 2022. This was slightly below the previous year but still above Germany’s target of cutting emissions by 40% by 2020.
While Germany met its target in 2020, that was largely due to the pandemic-related economic downturn. Emissions rose again as the economy rebounded over the following two years, when they were meant to decrease further.
Germany‘s economy minister said official figures won’t be released until mid-March, but noted that higher emissions from coal-fired power plants reactivated to make up for a lack of Russian gas had been balanced out by energy-saving measures and renewable power generation.
Robert Habeck, a member of the environmentalist Green party whose ministerial portfolio also covers energy and climate, said new measures to boost wind and solar power generation would take effect in 2023. But he expressed concern over the lack of emissions cuts in the transport sector, describing it as a “problem child” that requires urgent attention.
Climate activists, meanwhile, have blasted Habeck and his party for supporting plans to bulldoze a tiny village in western Germany to make way for a nearby coal mine.
Protesters camped out in Luetzerath clashed with police earlier this week, and more demonstrations are planned at the site ahead of Jan. 10, when utility company RWE is expected to raze the ancient hamlet.
About 150 people gathered outside Habeck’s ministry Wednesday to protest against the expansion of the Garzweiler coal mine that will swallow Luetzerath, claiming that a compromise reached last year between the government and RWE will result in more emissions, not fewer.
“This coal deal between the Greens and RWE is a black box that leads to climate catastrophe,” said campaigner Luisa Neubauer.
“This is something we won’t agree to. It’s diametrically opposed to the Paris climate agreement,” she said, adding that Luetzerath sits atop of hundreds of millions of tons of coal.
Full story
3) Germany to destroy village to make way for coal mine expansion: Nigel Farage interview with Montford Montford
GB News, 3 January 2023
GB News, 3 January 2023
'When push comes to shove and Mr Putin cuts your supply of gas, you don't try and build more wind farms... it isn't going to help.'
Andrew Montford from Net Zero Watch discusses Germany destroying one of their villages to make way for a coal mine expansion.
Watch GB News interview here
4) Hitting back at US, France and Germany push EU to adopt “a European Green Subsidy Act”
Politico, 4 January 2023
Andrew Montford from Net Zero Watch discusses Germany destroying one of their villages to make way for a coal mine expansion.
Watch GB News interview here
4) Hitting back at US, France and Germany push EU to adopt “a European Green Subsidy Act”
Politico, 4 January 2023
France and Germany are pushing to get the EU to adopt “a European Inflation Reduction Act” which would include “bigger, swifter and more simplified subsidies” for green industries.
PARIS — French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire hit back at America’s multi-billion dollar green subsidies package on Wednesday by announcing Paris’s own wide-ranging raft of incentives to shore up green industries in France.
Fury has been building in Europe after it became clear that U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act — a $369 billion package for green industry — could drain investment out of the EU and into the U.S. Big car-making nations like France and Germany complained that the U.S. law was potentially illegal for discriminating against foreign companies in the electric vehicle sector and encouraging consumers to “Buy American.”
Le Maire’s move is France’s counter-strike to prevent the flight of industry out of Europe — a fear that has only been compounded by the fact the EU is facing far higher energy costs than the U.S., partly because of the war in Ukraine.
During a state visit to the U.S. in December, French President Emmanuel Macron said the U.S. green subsidies were “super aggressive” and made the case that European allies should receive the same treatment as American companies.
While the U.S. has made some concessions on tax credits for electric cars, France has argued these are insufficient and the EU needs to roll out its own subsidies package.
In the meantime, the government is looking to press ahead with its own national scheme.
On Wednesday, Le Maire said the new bill would include a wide range of incentives to encourage green industries to stay or bring back production plants to France.
“In the coming days, I will propose a bill on green industries … that will include tax, regulation and legislative measures to accelerate the installation of industrial sites in France,” said Le Maire during an interview on French radio France Inter.
France is hoping to accelerate its own national response in several areas such as “green hydrogen, electrolysis, electric batteries production, nuclear energy and renewable energies,” according to Le Maire.
“Let’s take advantage of this moment … to become the leading decarbonized nation in Europe,” he said. No figures however have yet been announced.
On Wednesday, Le Maire also said he and his German counterpart Robert Habeck were pushing to get EU partners to adopt “a European Inflation Reduction Act” which would include “bigger, swifter and more simplified subsidies” for green industries.
EU leaders have so far agreed to ask the European Commission to come up with proposals to make the bloc more competitive in the face of the green subsidy spurge in the U.S. These are expected to be discussed at a European Council summit in February.
5) Bringing manufacturing back to the US or Europe won’t be easy or cheap
Technode, 5 January 2023
PARIS — French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire hit back at America’s multi-billion dollar green subsidies package on Wednesday by announcing Paris’s own wide-ranging raft of incentives to shore up green industries in France.
Fury has been building in Europe after it became clear that U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act — a $369 billion package for green industry — could drain investment out of the EU and into the U.S. Big car-making nations like France and Germany complained that the U.S. law was potentially illegal for discriminating against foreign companies in the electric vehicle sector and encouraging consumers to “Buy American.”
Le Maire’s move is France’s counter-strike to prevent the flight of industry out of Europe — a fear that has only been compounded by the fact the EU is facing far higher energy costs than the U.S., partly because of the war in Ukraine.
During a state visit to the U.S. in December, French President Emmanuel Macron said the U.S. green subsidies were “super aggressive” and made the case that European allies should receive the same treatment as American companies.
While the U.S. has made some concessions on tax credits for electric cars, France has argued these are insufficient and the EU needs to roll out its own subsidies package.
In the meantime, the government is looking to press ahead with its own national scheme.
On Wednesday, Le Maire said the new bill would include a wide range of incentives to encourage green industries to stay or bring back production plants to France.
“In the coming days, I will propose a bill on green industries … that will include tax, regulation and legislative measures to accelerate the installation of industrial sites in France,” said Le Maire during an interview on French radio France Inter.
France is hoping to accelerate its own national response in several areas such as “green hydrogen, electrolysis, electric batteries production, nuclear energy and renewable energies,” according to Le Maire.
“Let’s take advantage of this moment … to become the leading decarbonized nation in Europe,” he said. No figures however have yet been announced.
On Wednesday, Le Maire also said he and his German counterpart Robert Habeck were pushing to get EU partners to adopt “a European Inflation Reduction Act” which would include “bigger, swifter and more simplified subsidies” for green industries.
EU leaders have so far agreed to ask the European Commission to come up with proposals to make the bloc more competitive in the face of the green subsidy spurge in the U.S. These are expected to be discussed at a European Council summit in February.
5) Bringing manufacturing back to the US or Europe won’t be easy or cheap
Technode, 5 January 2023
In the West, labor is expensive, energy is costly, and companies struggle to find banks to finance their new factories.
Politicians in the White House and Europe want to bring tech manufacturing back to its home turf. But while tech companies like Apple are slowly moving manufacturing operations away from China, they’re shifting them over to India, Vietnam, and Mexico – not the US.
The reality is that bringing manufacturing back to the US or Europe is more complex than it seems because of the deeply embedded chains built over decades of East-West collaboration.
We believe that Western re-shoring will be a long struggle and that Chinese hardware businesses will continue to make excellent investment targets in the meantime.
Rebuilding industrial value chains will take time
The US offshored a significant amount of production, such as electronics, in the 70s, which extended into IT and communications in the 90s. Restoring these abilities requires significant time, investment, and effort.
Even the most basic of necessities – the humble N95 face mask – required navigating a complex maze of obstacles to have it manufactured back in the US. The irony was US companies had to import materials and production equipment from China to make it possible to manufacture the masks locally. Building a resilient supply chain is expensive as well, just to ensure there are alternative sources and resources. And knowing the bureaucracies of US politics, there’s the challenge of getting all regulatory agencies to work together.
Capital markets aren’t supporting manufacturing
Known as the smile curve and the ‘Manufacturing Gap,’ where the return on capital is too low for capital markets to invest in, the smile curve hypothesis shows that the manufacturing stage is the least valuable in the entire industrial value chain.
This is very much true: chip designers enjoy gross margins as high as 60%, while companies that produce and assemble the chips average just 17%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Currently, chip design is dominated by the US market at 68% of the market share. But the US possesses just 3% of the outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing market.
In the West, labor is expensive, energy is costly, and companies struggle to find banks to finance their new factories, especially if it takes up to two decades to pay off.
If we look at NASDAQ to see where capital flows, less than a quarter goes to hard tech. Assuming most of it is R&D, design, and marketing, we can expect even less going into the actual manufacturing of the product. However, more than half of all the market capital is invested in software, and the rest is laid across a broad variety of services and fundamentals.
Full story
6) MPs demand speed limit cut as part of Net Zero 'war effort'
The Daily Telegraph, 5 January 2023
Politicians in the White House and Europe want to bring tech manufacturing back to its home turf. But while tech companies like Apple are slowly moving manufacturing operations away from China, they’re shifting them over to India, Vietnam, and Mexico – not the US.
The reality is that bringing manufacturing back to the US or Europe is more complex than it seems because of the deeply embedded chains built over decades of East-West collaboration.
We believe that Western re-shoring will be a long struggle and that Chinese hardware businesses will continue to make excellent investment targets in the meantime.
Rebuilding industrial value chains will take time
The US offshored a significant amount of production, such as electronics, in the 70s, which extended into IT and communications in the 90s. Restoring these abilities requires significant time, investment, and effort.
Even the most basic of necessities – the humble N95 face mask – required navigating a complex maze of obstacles to have it manufactured back in the US. The irony was US companies had to import materials and production equipment from China to make it possible to manufacture the masks locally. Building a resilient supply chain is expensive as well, just to ensure there are alternative sources and resources. And knowing the bureaucracies of US politics, there’s the challenge of getting all regulatory agencies to work together.
Capital markets aren’t supporting manufacturing
Known as the smile curve and the ‘Manufacturing Gap,’ where the return on capital is too low for capital markets to invest in, the smile curve hypothesis shows that the manufacturing stage is the least valuable in the entire industrial value chain.
This is very much true: chip designers enjoy gross margins as high as 60%, while companies that produce and assemble the chips average just 17%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Currently, chip design is dominated by the US market at 68% of the market share. But the US possesses just 3% of the outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing market.
In the West, labor is expensive, energy is costly, and companies struggle to find banks to finance their new factories, especially if it takes up to two decades to pay off.
If we look at NASDAQ to see where capital flows, less than a quarter goes to hard tech. Assuming most of it is R&D, design, and marketing, we can expect even less going into the actual manufacturing of the product. However, more than half of all the market capital is invested in software, and the rest is laid across a broad variety of services and fundamentals.
Full story
6) MPs demand speed limit cut as part of Net Zero 'war effort'
The Daily Telegraph, 5 January 2023
The Government should consider cutting motorway speed limits to 64mph to reduce transport emissions and dependence on oil imports, MPs have said.
The measure is among many that the Commons environmental audit select committee, in its report out on Thursday about reducing the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels, has said that Westminster should consider.
The report got under way shortly after the war in Ukraine and addressed both the UK’s energy independence and the net zero transition.
It said that solar panels should be installed on new developments and the Government should set an end date for oil and gas licensing.
MPs on the committee criticised a lack of plans by ministers to reduce pollution from transport, which accounts for 23 per cent of Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The committee added that the Government should consult on measures, such as those listed in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 10-point plan to cut oil use, which was drafted in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
The IEA’s plan also included the introduction of car-free Sundays in cities, working from home three days a week and alternating car access to roads depending on licence plate numbers.
“The rapid growth in electric car sales is encouraging, but it will take many years to replace petrol and diesel vehicles,” the report said.
“More must be done to improve the energy efficiency of our transport system and reduce its contribution to climate change in the meantime.”
MPs on the committee also called for a national “war effort” on energy efficiency, including potentially lowering stamp duty for homes that installed energy efficiency measures.
The committee was divided on whether the Government should continue to grant new oil and gas licenses, but acknowledged that doing so was not incompatible with the UK’s goals to reach net zero by 2050.
It said that domestic oil and gas would be necessary to power the economy through the green transition, but called for an end date for new licenses to be set by the Government “well before 2050”.
Full story
The measure is among many that the Commons environmental audit select committee, in its report out on Thursday about reducing the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels, has said that Westminster should consider.
The report got under way shortly after the war in Ukraine and addressed both the UK’s energy independence and the net zero transition.
It said that solar panels should be installed on new developments and the Government should set an end date for oil and gas licensing.
MPs on the committee criticised a lack of plans by ministers to reduce pollution from transport, which accounts for 23 per cent of Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions.
The committee added that the Government should consult on measures, such as those listed in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 10-point plan to cut oil use, which was drafted in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
The IEA’s plan also included the introduction of car-free Sundays in cities, working from home three days a week and alternating car access to roads depending on licence plate numbers.
“The rapid growth in electric car sales is encouraging, but it will take many years to replace petrol and diesel vehicles,” the report said.
“More must be done to improve the energy efficiency of our transport system and reduce its contribution to climate change in the meantime.”
MPs on the committee also called for a national “war effort” on energy efficiency, including potentially lowering stamp duty for homes that installed energy efficiency measures.
The committee was divided on whether the Government should continue to grant new oil and gas licenses, but acknowledged that doing so was not incompatible with the UK’s goals to reach net zero by 2050.
It said that domestic oil and gas would be necessary to power the economy through the green transition, but called for an end date for new licenses to be set by the Government “well before 2050”.
Full story
7) UK faces blackouts threat if more plants taken offline, warns nuclear boss
City A.M., 4 January 2023
City A.M., 4 January 2023
Nuclear power has been “absolutely vital to keeping the lights on this winter”, warned a leading industry boss, after the UK narrowly avoided bringing in emergency measures last year to stave off supply shortages.
Tom Greatrex, chief executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, told City A.M. nuclear is essential for the UK’s energy security.
He said: “If the right conditions are in place, nuclear can keep providing clean, reliable, sovereign power for our energy security and net zero future.”
His comments follow EDF announcing it is still weighing up whether to extend the lifespan of two key legacy nuclear power plants.
The French energy giant is expected to make a decision in the next two months over whether to continue operating the Heysham 1 and Hartlepool plants for a further two years – with both sites currently set to close down in March 2024.
The two plants have a collective generation capacity of around 2.5GW, enough to provide zero-carbon power to over four million homes and meet nearly five per cent of the UK’s electrical demand in the winter.
The UK’s remaining ageing nuclear fleet (Source: Nuclear Industry Association)
However, the French energy firm is smarting over the introduction of the Electricity Generator Levy – a new 45 per cent tax on legacy renewable generators, covering “exceptional receipts” of £75 per MWh and above.
Rachael Glaving, commercial director of generation at EDF UK, told the Telegraph last month it was that’s going to” factor in the business case of life extension and we’ll have to take that [the windfall tax] into consideration.”
She said: “It’s not going to make it easier.”
The measure was brought in by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as part of his fiscal event last November, and is intended to replace the two-decades old renewable obligation contracts, which allowed energy developments including nuclear plants to harness record gas prices as part of their profits.
The levy is expected to raise £14bn by 2028, to help fund support for households and businesses grappling with soaring energy bills, with around 40 per cent of the nuclear and renewable energy market currently operating on legacy deals.
The tax will not be apply to newer renewable generation supported through the Government’s Contracts for Difference scheme.
Full story
Tom Greatrex, chief executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, told City A.M. nuclear is essential for the UK’s energy security.
He said: “If the right conditions are in place, nuclear can keep providing clean, reliable, sovereign power for our energy security and net zero future.”
His comments follow EDF announcing it is still weighing up whether to extend the lifespan of two key legacy nuclear power plants.
The French energy giant is expected to make a decision in the next two months over whether to continue operating the Heysham 1 and Hartlepool plants for a further two years – with both sites currently set to close down in March 2024.
The two plants have a collective generation capacity of around 2.5GW, enough to provide zero-carbon power to over four million homes and meet nearly five per cent of the UK’s electrical demand in the winter.
The UK’s remaining ageing nuclear fleet (Source: Nuclear Industry Association)
However, the French energy firm is smarting over the introduction of the Electricity Generator Levy – a new 45 per cent tax on legacy renewable generators, covering “exceptional receipts” of £75 per MWh and above.
Rachael Glaving, commercial director of generation at EDF UK, told the Telegraph last month it was that’s going to” factor in the business case of life extension and we’ll have to take that [the windfall tax] into consideration.”
She said: “It’s not going to make it easier.”
The measure was brought in by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as part of his fiscal event last November, and is intended to replace the two-decades old renewable obligation contracts, which allowed energy developments including nuclear plants to harness record gas prices as part of their profits.
The levy is expected to raise £14bn by 2028, to help fund support for households and businesses grappling with soaring energy bills, with around 40 per cent of the nuclear and renewable energy market currently operating on legacy deals.
The tax will not be apply to newer renewable generation supported through the Government’s Contracts for Difference scheme.
Full story
8) Steven Koonin: Will climate change really put New York underwater?
The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2023
NOAA says the city’s sea level will rise a foot by 2050, but there are too many variables to know.
A recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration report yet again raises alarm that New Yorkers are about to be inundated by rapidly rising seas. But a review of the data suggests that such warnings need to be taken with more than a few grains of sea salt.
The record of sea level measured at the southern tip of Manhattan, known as the Battery, begins in 1856. It shows that today’s waters are 19 inches higher than they were 166 years ago, rising an average of 3.5 inches every 30 years. The geologic record shows that this rise began some 20,000 years ago as the last great glaciers melted, causing the New York coastline to move inland more than 50 miles.
There is no question that sea level at the Battery will continue to rise in coming decades, if only because the land has been steadily sinking about 2 inches every 30 years because of factors including tectonic motion, rebound from the mass of the glaciers, and local subsidence. Rather, the question is whether growing human influences on the climate will cause sea level to rise more rapidly. To judge that, we can compare recent rates of rise with those in the past, when human influences were much smaller.
The nearby chart shows how much sea level rose during the 30 years prior to each year since 1920. That rise has varied between 1.5 and 6 inches. The 5-inch rise over the most recent 30 years is higher than the centurylong average but isn’t unprecedented and shows no sign of increasing.
As the Earth warms, changes in sea level at the Battery will depend in part on global changes. These include the loss of ice from mountain glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica as well as the ocean’s expansion as it warms. It’s very difficult to predict these changes—many factors influence ice loss, and the oceans absorb only 0.25% of the heat flowing through the Earth’s climate system. The 30-year rises in the latter half of the 20th century were diminished by about an inch due to the filling of reservoirs behind dams and changes in groundwater around the world.
The Battery’s sea level also depends on local changes in the sea and the sinking of the land. Most important is the natural variability of winds, currents such as the Gulf Stream, salinity and temperatures of the North Atlantic, which cause variations in sea level along the entire U.S. Northeast coast. Because of these many variables, climate models can’t account for the ups and downs so evident in the graph.
Despite this, the recent NASA report echoes a February National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report predicting more than 1 foot of rise at the Battery by 2050. Such a rise during the coming 30 years would be more than double the rise over the past 30 years and more than triple the past century’s average. Even more remarkably, the NOAA report says this rise will happen regardless of future greenhouse-gas emissions. There is no way of knowing if this prediction is correct.
So while New Yorkers should watch the waters around them, there is no need to dash to higher ground. The Battery’s sea level hasn’t done anything in recent decades that it hasn’t done over the past century. And although we’ll have to wait three decades to test the predicted 1-foot rise, measurements over the next decade should tell us how quickly we’ll need to raise the seawalls.
Mr. Koonin is a professor at New York University, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”
The Battery’s sea level also depends on local changes in the sea and the sinking of the land. Most important is the natural variability of winds, currents such as the Gulf Stream, salinity and temperatures of the North Atlantic, which cause variations in sea level along the entire U.S. Northeast coast. Because of these many variables, climate models can’t account for the ups and downs so evident in the graph.
Despite this, the recent NASA report echoes a February National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report predicting more than 1 foot of rise at the Battery by 2050. Such a rise during the coming 30 years would be more than double the rise over the past 30 years and more than triple the past century’s average. Even more remarkably, the NOAA report says this rise will happen regardless of future greenhouse-gas emissions. There is no way of knowing if this prediction is correct.
So while New Yorkers should watch the waters around them, there is no need to dash to higher ground. The Battery’s sea level hasn’t done anything in recent decades that it hasn’t done over the past century. And although we’ll have to wait three decades to test the predicted 1-foot rise, measurements over the next decade should tell us how quickly we’ll need to raise the seawalls.
Mr. Koonin is a professor at New York University, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”
9) Psychologist Jordan Peterson could lose license if he refuses social media ‘re-education’
New York Post, 5 January 2023
New York Post, 5 January 2023
Controversial Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson has launched a legal challenge against the College of Psychologists of Ontario after he said the governing body threatened to pull his practicing license if he doesn’t complete social media re-education for comments he made on Twitter and the Joe Rogan’s podcast.
Peterson, 60, filed an application for judicial review with the Ontario Divisional Court, The Toronto Sun reported on Wednesday, as the clinical psychologist has said he will refuse to comply with the regulatory body’s demands.
The CPO, which oversees practicing psychologists in Ontario in order to protect patients from professional misconduct, ordered Peterson to complete a mandatory “Specified Continuing Education or Remedial Program” to “review, reflect on and ameliorate [his] professionalism in public statements,” according a lengthy list of requirements from the college Peterson shared on Twitter.
He must meet with a psychologist for coaching classes, which he must pay for, until a final report is issued by the coach that shows their concerns have been “properly ameliorated.” The CPO reached its decision on Nov. 22 following an investigation.
“I’m not complying. I’m not submitting to re-education. I am not admitting that my viewpoints — many of which have, by the way, been entirely justified by the facts that have emerged since the complaints were levied — were either wrong or unprofessional,” he wrote in the National Post Wednesday evening.
“I’m going to say what I have to say, and let the chips fall where they will. I have done nothing to compromise those in my care; quite the contrary — I have served all my clients and the millions of people I am communicating with to the best of my ability and in good faith, and that’s that.”
“If it becomes necessary” for him to attend the classes, he pledged to make all of the details of what they’re teaching public.
In June, Twitter suspended Peterson for a post about trangender actor Elliot Page that broke the platform’s rules “against hateful conduct.”
“Remember when pride was a sin? And Ellen Page just had her breasts removed by a criminal physician,” Peterson tweeted.
Twitter’s new CEO Elon Musk reinstated Peterson’s account in November after he took over the company.
A month earlier, he announced he would be stepping away from social media after he caught heat for retweeting a New York Post article about plus-size Sports Illustrated model Yummi Nu, calling her “Not beautiful,” adding that “no amount of authoritarian tolerance is going to change that.”
In January, the former University of Toronto researcher claimed on Joe Rogan’s podcast that being transgender is a result of a “social contagion” and similar to “satanic ritual abuse,” and suggested that acceptance of the trans community is a sign of “civilizations collapsing.”
In response, Critics again denounced Spotify’s “The Joe Rogan Experience” for having “peddled harmful anti-trans rhetoric.” The CPO cited the Jan. 25 podcast appearance in its notice to Peterson.
Peterson also claimed in the National Post that he was targeted for supporting Canadian opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s criticisms of the COVID-19 lockdowns, criticizing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Chief of Staff Gerald Butts, criticizing an Ottawa council member and making fun of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
“Every single accusation is not only independent of my clinical practice, but explicitly political — and not only that: unidirectionally explicitly political,” Peterson, a free-speech advocate, wrote. “Every single thing I have been sentenced to correction for saying is insufficiently leftist, politically. I’m simply too classically liberal — or, even more unforgivably — conservative.”
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Peterson, 60, filed an application for judicial review with the Ontario Divisional Court, The Toronto Sun reported on Wednesday, as the clinical psychologist has said he will refuse to comply with the regulatory body’s demands.
The CPO, which oversees practicing psychologists in Ontario in order to protect patients from professional misconduct, ordered Peterson to complete a mandatory “Specified Continuing Education or Remedial Program” to “review, reflect on and ameliorate [his] professionalism in public statements,” according a lengthy list of requirements from the college Peterson shared on Twitter.
He must meet with a psychologist for coaching classes, which he must pay for, until a final report is issued by the coach that shows their concerns have been “properly ameliorated.” The CPO reached its decision on Nov. 22 following an investigation.
“I’m not complying. I’m not submitting to re-education. I am not admitting that my viewpoints — many of which have, by the way, been entirely justified by the facts that have emerged since the complaints were levied — were either wrong or unprofessional,” he wrote in the National Post Wednesday evening.
“I’m going to say what I have to say, and let the chips fall where they will. I have done nothing to compromise those in my care; quite the contrary — I have served all my clients and the millions of people I am communicating with to the best of my ability and in good faith, and that’s that.”
“If it becomes necessary” for him to attend the classes, he pledged to make all of the details of what they’re teaching public.
In June, Twitter suspended Peterson for a post about trangender actor Elliot Page that broke the platform’s rules “against hateful conduct.”
“Remember when pride was a sin? And Ellen Page just had her breasts removed by a criminal physician,” Peterson tweeted.
Twitter’s new CEO Elon Musk reinstated Peterson’s account in November after he took over the company.
A month earlier, he announced he would be stepping away from social media after he caught heat for retweeting a New York Post article about plus-size Sports Illustrated model Yummi Nu, calling her “Not beautiful,” adding that “no amount of authoritarian tolerance is going to change that.”
In January, the former University of Toronto researcher claimed on Joe Rogan’s podcast that being transgender is a result of a “social contagion” and similar to “satanic ritual abuse,” and suggested that acceptance of the trans community is a sign of “civilizations collapsing.”
In response, Critics again denounced Spotify’s “The Joe Rogan Experience” for having “peddled harmful anti-trans rhetoric.” The CPO cited the Jan. 25 podcast appearance in its notice to Peterson.
Peterson also claimed in the National Post that he was targeted for supporting Canadian opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s criticisms of the COVID-19 lockdowns, criticizing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Chief of Staff Gerald Butts, criticizing an Ottawa council member and making fun of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.
“Every single accusation is not only independent of my clinical practice, but explicitly political — and not only that: unidirectionally explicitly political,” Peterson, a free-speech advocate, wrote. “Every single thing I have been sentenced to correction for saying is insufficiently leftist, politically. I’m simply too classically liberal — or, even more unforgivably — conservative.”
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10) The campaign to Re-Educate Jordan Peterson
The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2023
For speaking his mind, the psychologist could lose his license.
You would think Canadians had learned by now not to tell Jordan Peterson what to say. The psychology professor became an internet sensation in 2016 after arguing that Canadian legislation amounted to “compelled speech” on gender pronouns. Now the College of Psychologists of Ontario is demanding that Mr. Peterson acknowledge he “lacked professionalism” in public statements and undergo a “coaching program” of remedial education.
Maybe the new commissars missed Mr. Peterson’s videos praising Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the man who said: “Live not by lies.” Mr. Peterson won’t comply, and he says he’ll now face a disciplinary committee that could revoke his license to practice.
The College of Psychologists, the profession’s governing body in Ontario, appointed an investigator in March to examine complaints about Mr. Peterson’s comments on Twitter and the popular Joe Rogan podcast. On Nov. 22, the College’s panel released a decision. Per images provided by Mr. Peterson, the panel ruled: “The comments at issue appear to undermine the public trust in the profession as a whole, and raise questions about your ability to carry out your responsibilities as a psychologist.”
What are these comments? Calling Elliot Page, the transgender actor, by his former name, “Ellen,” and the pronoun “her,” on Twitter. Calling an adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “prik.” A sarcastic crack at antigrowth environmentalists for not caring that their energy policies lead to more deaths of poor Third World children.
Calling a former client “vindictive.” Objecting to a Sports Illustrated swimsuit cover of a plus-size model: “Sorry. Not Beautiful. And no amount of authoritarian tolerance is going to change that.” In Canada even offenses begin with “sorry.”
“The impact risk in this case is significant,” the panel found, because the comments “may cause harm.” It counseled Mr. Peterson that coaching would help “mitigate any risks to the public.” The College of Psychologists declined to comment on the case, citing confidentiality.
Mr. Peterson responded sensibly: “Who exactly was harmed, how, when, to what degree, and how was that harm measured”? He says there have been about a dozen formal complaints since 2017, each one demanding a formal reply. One complainant cited Mr. Peterson’s Twitter response to a critic worried about overpopulation: “You’re free to leave at any point.” Mr. Peterson thinks the investigations aren’t about mitigating harm but preventing free expression, and that “the process is the punishment,” giving online detractors an effective way to badger him.
Professional bodies are supposed to ensure that practitioners are competent, not enforce political orthodoxies or act as language police outside the office. But that’s the trend in Western medical associations and beyond. The Law Society of Ontario had pushed a mandatory diversity pledge for all lawyers until a members’ revolt took over the board and nixed the pledge in 2019. At the time, an Ontario lawyer objected to the “ever-expanding mission to socially engineer the profession.”
Sounds like an issue of id, ego and superego. You could ask a psychologist about it.
The Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2023
For speaking his mind, the psychologist could lose his license.
You would think Canadians had learned by now not to tell Jordan Peterson what to say. The psychology professor became an internet sensation in 2016 after arguing that Canadian legislation amounted to “compelled speech” on gender pronouns. Now the College of Psychologists of Ontario is demanding that Mr. Peterson acknowledge he “lacked professionalism” in public statements and undergo a “coaching program” of remedial education.
Maybe the new commissars missed Mr. Peterson’s videos praising Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the man who said: “Live not by lies.” Mr. Peterson won’t comply, and he says he’ll now face a disciplinary committee that could revoke his license to practice.
The College of Psychologists, the profession’s governing body in Ontario, appointed an investigator in March to examine complaints about Mr. Peterson’s comments on Twitter and the popular Joe Rogan podcast. On Nov. 22, the College’s panel released a decision. Per images provided by Mr. Peterson, the panel ruled: “The comments at issue appear to undermine the public trust in the profession as a whole, and raise questions about your ability to carry out your responsibilities as a psychologist.”
What are these comments? Calling Elliot Page, the transgender actor, by his former name, “Ellen,” and the pronoun “her,” on Twitter. Calling an adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a “prik.” A sarcastic crack at antigrowth environmentalists for not caring that their energy policies lead to more deaths of poor Third World children.
Calling a former client “vindictive.” Objecting to a Sports Illustrated swimsuit cover of a plus-size model: “Sorry. Not Beautiful. And no amount of authoritarian tolerance is going to change that.” In Canada even offenses begin with “sorry.”
“The impact risk in this case is significant,” the panel found, because the comments “may cause harm.” It counseled Mr. Peterson that coaching would help “mitigate any risks to the public.” The College of Psychologists declined to comment on the case, citing confidentiality.
Mr. Peterson responded sensibly: “Who exactly was harmed, how, when, to what degree, and how was that harm measured”? He says there have been about a dozen formal complaints since 2017, each one demanding a formal reply. One complainant cited Mr. Peterson’s Twitter response to a critic worried about overpopulation: “You’re free to leave at any point.” Mr. Peterson thinks the investigations aren’t about mitigating harm but preventing free expression, and that “the process is the punishment,” giving online detractors an effective way to badger him.
Professional bodies are supposed to ensure that practitioners are competent, not enforce political orthodoxies or act as language police outside the office. But that’s the trend in Western medical associations and beyond. The Law Society of Ontario had pushed a mandatory diversity pledge for all lawyers until a members’ revolt took over the board and nixed the pledge in 2019. At the time, an Ontario lawyer objected to the “ever-expanding mission to socially engineer the profession.”
Sounds like an issue of id, ego and superego. You could ask a psychologist about it.
The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.netzerowatch.com.
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