Less than 30 minutes to go before the final 2023 vote count is announced
This Buzz is being posted not too long before we hear the final results of the 2023 General Election, to be unveiled at 2pm when we will learn whether National and Act will need the support of NZ First to form a government. This, in turn, will influence the appointments of the new ministers whose announcements – when they get down to governing – will be recorded on the government’s official website.
As we reported yesterday, just four announcements have been posted by the caretaker government since Election Day. Two have dealt with the Rugby World Cup and two with the conflict in the Middle East.
After the final vote count has been revealed, we will likely have to wait at least for a few days, and maybe a week or so, for coalition negotiations to be completed and the new ministerial team announced.
More immediately, the final count will decide whether one of National’s highest-ranking MPs – and one tipped to become the next Speaker (as the NZ Herald reported) gets back into Parliament.
The political fortunes of half a dozen candidates in seats with tight margins on election night will also be revealed, which could also likely impact the fortunes of list MPs elected in National, Labour and the Greens, the Herald noted.
All this is happening ahead of World Tsunami Awareness Day, which is Sunday.
Tsunami probably over-states what s in store for some politicians, but according to 1News:
A political scientist says there will be “some upsets coming” with the official election vote count result tomorrow, and National and ACT will likely need the support of New Zealand First to form a government.
Victoria University of Wellington’s Bryce Edwards told 1News there would be “curveballs” and surprises within the results, some of which would be “quite consequential for the negotiations for the formation of the new government”.
He said some electorate seats National won by slim margins on preliminary results on Election Day — such as Te Atatū, Nelson and Banks Peninsula — may flip back to Labour.
“This always happens after each election, the special votes do tend to be biased towards the left.”
But while Labour could be reasonably confident of this, it wouldn’t significantly change the outcome of the election overall, he said.
He believed the results could be more consequential in the Māori seats, especially Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau which might be snatched from Labour by Māori Party candidates.
The fall of those seats would increase the size of Parliament due to an overhang.
1News explained:
The overhang — already one seat — happened when a party won more electorate seats than it was entitled to with its party vote. Te Pāti Māori’s party vote on preliminary results is 2.6%.
With more seats in Parliament, Edwards said it made it a tougher ask to reach a majority, as the magic number to reach a majority was higher.
“What’s more, National is likely to lose some of its total seats… they’ll be down maybe one, two, or three at most seats.”
He said it was likely, based on the treatment of special vote trends in previous years, that ACT’s 11-seat result would stay the same.
National and ACT therefore would have fewer than half the seats in the new parliament and would be reliant on New Zealand First to form a government.
Let’s find out in about 30 minutes….
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
After the final vote count has been revealed, we will likely have to wait at least for a few days, and maybe a week or so, for coalition negotiations to be completed and the new ministerial team announced.
More immediately, the final count will decide whether one of National’s highest-ranking MPs – and one tipped to become the next Speaker (as the NZ Herald reported) gets back into Parliament.
The political fortunes of half a dozen candidates in seats with tight margins on election night will also be revealed, which could also likely impact the fortunes of list MPs elected in National, Labour and the Greens, the Herald noted.
All this is happening ahead of World Tsunami Awareness Day, which is Sunday.
Tsunami probably over-states what s in store for some politicians, but according to 1News:
A political scientist says there will be “some upsets coming” with the official election vote count result tomorrow, and National and ACT will likely need the support of New Zealand First to form a government.
Victoria University of Wellington’s Bryce Edwards told 1News there would be “curveballs” and surprises within the results, some of which would be “quite consequential for the negotiations for the formation of the new government”.
He said some electorate seats National won by slim margins on preliminary results on Election Day — such as Te Atatū, Nelson and Banks Peninsula — may flip back to Labour.
“This always happens after each election, the special votes do tend to be biased towards the left.”
But while Labour could be reasonably confident of this, it wouldn’t significantly change the outcome of the election overall, he said.
He believed the results could be more consequential in the Māori seats, especially Te Tai Tokerau and Tāmaki Makaurau which might be snatched from Labour by Māori Party candidates.
The fall of those seats would increase the size of Parliament due to an overhang.
1News explained:
The overhang — already one seat — happened when a party won more electorate seats than it was entitled to with its party vote. Te Pāti Māori’s party vote on preliminary results is 2.6%.
With more seats in Parliament, Edwards said it made it a tougher ask to reach a majority, as the magic number to reach a majority was higher.
“What’s more, National is likely to lose some of its total seats… they’ll be down maybe one, two, or three at most seats.”
He said it was likely, based on the treatment of special vote trends in previous years, that ACT’s 11-seat result would stay the same.
National and ACT therefore would have fewer than half the seats in the new parliament and would be reliant on New Zealand First to form a government.
Let’s find out in about 30 minutes….
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
1 comment:
MMP needs to be abolished. This is not what it was meant to do..
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